So the green lines are the tops of the last 2 cycles.
We have wicked up to the top of the line, and got denied.
We have spent a week above the bottom GREEN line, suggesting that we want to hold it.
Weekly closes above the bottom line are an acceptance that the price is right and has movement potential to continue higher.
We can retest 106, hold above - and then see continuation higher. It is possible... but
IF you look at the RSI and compare to 2021, there is BEARISH DIVERGENCE that is clearly defined. This is a leading indicator, and often works out more than not.
We 100% need to get above the top yellow trend line to invalidate the bearish divergence.
Right now, RSI is testing the yellow moving average - this is the point last cycle where everything ended.
If price recovers, then i think we go higher (new ath again).
If Price does not, and RSI falls below the moving average, then i think its likely the bull cycle for btc is over..
BUT, its not all doom and gloom.
The RSI moving average has made a higher low, suggesting that the market is not finished its upwards momentum.
On a more fundamental understanding:
BTC has gone almost straight up from 16k to 121k. Its not healthy.
To get to higher highs, we need real adoption of btc.
I dont think BTC breaks and holds above 130k without some more kind of mainstream adoption.
We have institutional adoption - ETFS allow a constant buying pressure, pension funds have access to BTC now too! (I have a new btc exposed retirement annuity if anyone is keen... just dont think the % allowed is that reasonable at the moment).
Banks are starting to allow custody of BTC, meaning the average joe will be able to buy through their bank...
But i cant pay for my beers with btc, i cant use btc to settle debts with most merchants.
There is still more mainstream adoption to happen...
Countries are not piling into btc to make it a reserve asset in teh way i believe they will in teh future
The market will always move to hurt the most people.
Once everyone who wants to buy btc at the highs is done, then the price 100% will correct...
As btc matures, its volatility will drop. This means that the 80% retraces of the past are unlikely in my opinion.
There are big players wanting to buy for long term, this will make buy orders happen sooner than they have in the past.
As an indicator for the alt market - btc losing major psychological levels will create a risk off environment - aka more alt pain.
I had a look at the BTC.D, and on a quick inspection it looks like it could rise to even as high as 75%...
Which, as btc has a global use case as a store of value makes sense vs alt coins changing the world in the same time span.
If the price of BTC drops, alts will drop harder as they are riskier assets. Making BTC.D increase.
Alts are still close the lows, and they need a risk on environment to gain value.
The whole crypto market has changed compared to the old cycles.
Previously, the BTC believers would make huge money - and then at these peaks sell their btc to either tether and alt tokens.
This insane amount of money we received into the total market cap came from big institutions - blackrock etf etc, governments buying.
These players that made the money cant swop their btc to alt coins. They are locked into an etf where at most they can diversify into other traditional investments.
This is a real risk to total2+ receiving a real return...
But its not over, BTC will survive. We learn what we can to make sound financial decisions in the long term.
Stick with your long term plans. Dont but trash. Manage your risk. Manage your mental, dont be over exposed to risk when at the highs.
We have wicked up to the top of the line, and got denied.
We have spent a week above the bottom GREEN line, suggesting that we want to hold it.
Weekly closes above the bottom line are an acceptance that the price is right and has movement potential to continue higher.
We can retest 106, hold above - and then see continuation higher. It is possible... but
IF you look at the RSI and compare to 2021, there is BEARISH DIVERGENCE that is clearly defined. This is a leading indicator, and often works out more than not.
We 100% need to get above the top yellow trend line to invalidate the bearish divergence.
Right now, RSI is testing the yellow moving average - this is the point last cycle where everything ended.
If price recovers, then i think we go higher (new ath again).
If Price does not, and RSI falls below the moving average, then i think its likely the bull cycle for btc is over..
BUT, its not all doom and gloom.
The RSI moving average has made a higher low, suggesting that the market is not finished its upwards momentum.
On a more fundamental understanding:
BTC has gone almost straight up from 16k to 121k. Its not healthy.
To get to higher highs, we need real adoption of btc.
I dont think BTC breaks and holds above 130k without some more kind of mainstream adoption.
We have institutional adoption - ETFS allow a constant buying pressure, pension funds have access to BTC now too! (I have a new btc exposed retirement annuity if anyone is keen... just dont think the % allowed is that reasonable at the moment).
Banks are starting to allow custody of BTC, meaning the average joe will be able to buy through their bank...
But i cant pay for my beers with btc, i cant use btc to settle debts with most merchants.
There is still more mainstream adoption to happen...
Countries are not piling into btc to make it a reserve asset in teh way i believe they will in teh future
The market will always move to hurt the most people.
Once everyone who wants to buy btc at the highs is done, then the price 100% will correct...
As btc matures, its volatility will drop. This means that the 80% retraces of the past are unlikely in my opinion.
There are big players wanting to buy for long term, this will make buy orders happen sooner than they have in the past.
As an indicator for the alt market - btc losing major psychological levels will create a risk off environment - aka more alt pain.
I had a look at the BTC.D, and on a quick inspection it looks like it could rise to even as high as 75%...
Which, as btc has a global use case as a store of value makes sense vs alt coins changing the world in the same time span.
If the price of BTC drops, alts will drop harder as they are riskier assets. Making BTC.D increase.
Alts are still close the lows, and they need a risk on environment to gain value.
The whole crypto market has changed compared to the old cycles.
Previously, the BTC believers would make huge money - and then at these peaks sell their btc to either tether and alt tokens.
This insane amount of money we received into the total market cap came from big institutions - blackrock etf etc, governments buying.
These players that made the money cant swop their btc to alt coins. They are locked into an etf where at most they can diversify into other traditional investments.
This is a real risk to total2+ receiving a real return...
But its not over, BTC will survive. We learn what we can to make sound financial decisions in the long term.
Stick with your long term plans. Dont but trash. Manage your risk. Manage your mental, dont be over exposed to risk when at the highs.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.