“Handle before lift-off? Or is the bull year cooling off?”
Let’s address the question everyone is silently asking:
Are we nearing the end of the bull year… or is this just the calm before the next storm?
1. Total Market Cap (ALTS): Cup & Handle in Motion
We’ve observed something beautiful forming on the chart a clean cup and handle structure.
But here’s the twist: this isn’t just any setup it’s forming just below the infamous $1.43T ceiling, which has now rejected monthly closes in November, December, January, February, and July.
- High of January: $1.56T
- Low of April (Handle Base): $0.83T
- High of July: $1.56T
These levels outline a powerful structure… but we haven’t launched yet. Why? Because the handle isn’t done cooking.
Based on Fibonacci retracement levels from the handle’s top to bottom:
- 0.236 sits at $1.32T
- 0.382 sits at $1.24T
- 0.5 sits at $1.195T
We’ve yet to hit those deeper levels, and considering ALT dominance, macro uncertainty (e.g., Trump tariffs), and repeated monthly rejection below $1.43T, a retrace into $1.28T or deeper is not only possible.....it’s healthy.
This isn't the breakdown. It's the build-up.
2. Bitcoin: The Key That Turns the Lock
Now here’s where it gets intense.
Everyone’s assuming Bitcoin can hold $115K even if ALT dominance retraces to $1.28T.
Let’s be real:
> If ALT dumps, Bitcoin bleeds too.
And here’s what I see:
- There's a fair value gap between $113K and $111K, a probable first target.
- But beneath that lies the demand zone between $109K and $107.5K, loaded with liquidity.
- That liquidity is a magnet $107.5K is where the smart money lurks.
- A move from $115K to $107.5K is a 6–7% drop, and with ALTs faltering, it’s becoming increasingly probable.
This isn't panic territory. It's precision territory.
> We want that drop. That’s the spring before the sprint.
3. So what’s next?
This is how I see it:
- ALTS retrace into the $1.28T–$1.24T range, maybe wick to $1.19T completing the handle.
- BTC fills the FVG to $111K, then dives to $107.5K gathering all that demand before rebounding.
- Once BTC reclaims $113K and ALTS reattempt $1.43T, the stage is set. We’re looking at a clean slate… and clean breakouts.
🎯 What should you do with this?
1. Don’t panic—plan.
Use these drops as entries, not exits. Liquidity hunts aren’t to scare you—they’re to position the sharp ones.
2. Watch the zones like a hawk:
- BTC: $113K, then $107.5K
- ALTS: $1.28T, then $1.24T or $1.19T
3. Stay bullish—but strategic.
The structure is intact. Momentum is coiling. And once this handle completes, the push above $1.43T isn’t a maybe it’s a matter of timing.
💡 Final Word
Are we at the end of the bull year?
No. We're simply testing the patience of tourists… while giving early movers one final entry.
Are we going higher?
Absolutely. But first, we dip.... not because we’re weak… but because that’s what strength looks like before it roars.
Brace for impact. Then brace for ignition.
BTCUSD
TOTAL2
Let’s address the question everyone is silently asking:
Are we nearing the end of the bull year… or is this just the calm before the next storm?
1. Total Market Cap (ALTS): Cup & Handle in Motion
We’ve observed something beautiful forming on the chart a clean cup and handle structure.
But here’s the twist: this isn’t just any setup it’s forming just below the infamous $1.43T ceiling, which has now rejected monthly closes in November, December, January, February, and July.
- High of January: $1.56T
- Low of April (Handle Base): $0.83T
- High of July: $1.56T
These levels outline a powerful structure… but we haven’t launched yet. Why? Because the handle isn’t done cooking.
Based on Fibonacci retracement levels from the handle’s top to bottom:
- 0.236 sits at $1.32T
- 0.382 sits at $1.24T
- 0.5 sits at $1.195T
We’ve yet to hit those deeper levels, and considering ALT dominance, macro uncertainty (e.g., Trump tariffs), and repeated monthly rejection below $1.43T, a retrace into $1.28T or deeper is not only possible.....it’s healthy.
This isn't the breakdown. It's the build-up.
2. Bitcoin: The Key That Turns the Lock
Now here’s where it gets intense.
Everyone’s assuming Bitcoin can hold $115K even if ALT dominance retraces to $1.28T.
Let’s be real:
> If ALT dumps, Bitcoin bleeds too.
And here’s what I see:
- There's a fair value gap between $113K and $111K, a probable first target.
- But beneath that lies the demand zone between $109K and $107.5K, loaded with liquidity.
- That liquidity is a magnet $107.5K is where the smart money lurks.
- A move from $115K to $107.5K is a 6–7% drop, and with ALTs faltering, it’s becoming increasingly probable.
This isn't panic territory. It's precision territory.
> We want that drop. That’s the spring before the sprint.
3. So what’s next?
This is how I see it:
- ALTS retrace into the $1.28T–$1.24T range, maybe wick to $1.19T completing the handle.
- BTC fills the FVG to $111K, then dives to $107.5K gathering all that demand before rebounding.
- Once BTC reclaims $113K and ALTS reattempt $1.43T, the stage is set. We’re looking at a clean slate… and clean breakouts.
🎯 What should you do with this?
1. Don’t panic—plan.
Use these drops as entries, not exits. Liquidity hunts aren’t to scare you—they’re to position the sharp ones.
2. Watch the zones like a hawk:
- BTC: $113K, then $107.5K
- ALTS: $1.28T, then $1.24T or $1.19T
3. Stay bullish—but strategic.
The structure is intact. Momentum is coiling. And once this handle completes, the push above $1.43T isn’t a maybe it’s a matter of timing.
💡 Final Word
Are we at the end of the bull year?
No. We're simply testing the patience of tourists… while giving early movers one final entry.
Are we going higher?
Absolutely. But first, we dip.... not because we’re weak… but because that’s what strength looks like before it roars.
Brace for impact. Then brace for ignition.
BTCUSD TOTAL2 Note
Hey, I know we’ve been zeroed in on the cup-and-handle and those juicy $1.28T and $107.5K zones—BUT don’t lose sight of the bigger pasture out there.1. Halving-cycle timing still in the green
- We’re only ~400 days past the April 2024 halving. History shows peaks land 520–550 days afterward pointing toward Sept–Oct 2025 for the grand finale.
- Bottom line: there’s easily 2–3 more months of upside in BTC, which bodes well for alts once the shake-out finishes.
2. Pi-Cycle Top says “not yet”
- The Pi Cycle Top (our tried-and-true “blow-off” signal) hasn’t fired. Models currently peg the crossover around mid-Sept 2025, again implying more runway .
3. ETF inflows = real-money fuel
- Spot-Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in north of $38 billion into products like iShares’ IBIT this year an unprecedented institutional bid under the hood .
- As long as that tidal wave of capital keeps rolling, dips aren’t death knells; they’re buying opportunities.
4. Whales are still stacking—not distributing
On-chain data shows large BTC wallets accumulating rather than unloading. This measured, infrastructure-building behavior contrasts sharply with 2021’s euphoria and suggests more runway yet before topping .
So: greener pasture or finish line?
Nothing here screams “we’re done,” even if we retest those $1.28T / $107.5K zones. Those tests serve to:
- Clear the weak hands
- Set up fresh conviction
- Prime the next leg of this cycle
And with halving dynamics, Pi-Cycle models, ETF demand, and whale stacks all still aligned, the “greener pasture” is very much ahead—not behind us.
> What to do: Embrace the dip. Use it to load up before the final push into Q4 2025. Because when those macro pistons fire, this market won’t just run.... it will roar. 🚀
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.