I think we are ready for the next big rally in oil, this will cause a dramatic effect on inflation and affect earnings negatively going forward long term. I think it could reach as high as over $100 a barrel by mid August here. If so, the impact on the economy would be very large, with a delay of 6 months according to research by my mentor, timwest
With the Iran deal on the horizon, and the recent turn of events in the OPEC meeting, supply is going to be lower than demand and the US might be at risk of losing their energy independence that Trump had achieved during his tenure (also of note is the recent ESG activist shareholder movement, really concerning for the future of investment in increasing supply to meet demand from shale companies in the US).
Consider the return to normal in air travel as a factor here as well, no one is really prepared for a move like this, and most media talking heads are repeating like parrots that inflation will be transitory, as if they were under the govt's payroll. Nasty turn of events indeed, but a good opportunity for those long value and commodities.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
With the Iran deal on the horizon, and the recent turn of events in the OPEC meeting, supply is going to be lower than demand and the US might be at risk of losing their energy independence that Trump had achieved during his tenure (also of note is the recent ESG activist shareholder movement, really concerning for the future of investment in increasing supply to meet demand from shale companies in the US).
Consider the return to normal in air travel as a factor here as well, no one is really prepared for a move like this, and most media talking heads are repeating like parrots that inflation will be transitory, as if they were under the govt's payroll. Nasty turn of events indeed, but a good opportunity for those long value and commodities.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Trade active
I didn't flag this as active but it is already an active position since I posted it. Constructive action here, can expect further upside over time.
Trade closed: target reached
I forgot to update this, but after the last OPEC induced jump, price target #1 was hit and then oil reversed since. The inflation theme is certainly broken. This is going down.
Trade active
Buy back? Note
Now 12 week uptrend in place, bullish bias was correct (see previous update)
Note
+$3.09 sinceNote
Good action, bullish picture is constructive.Note
Trade closed manually
Trade closed as of yesterday.
Note
A chance to rejoin the monthly trend on dips...
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.