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Natural Gas - Winter 2020-21 UpdateOn June 3rd I posted my strategy for trading Natural Gas this coming Winter (linked below). As prices slowly drift lower, it looks like traders are beginning to accumulate long positions. I've opened a long position on the December(Z) E-mini contract and might add 1 or 2 more over the next couple months with the sell target up around $3.30ish. Will see how it plays out. I chose the December contract because the volume on the E-mini is extremely thin on the January and February contracts. +1 @ $2.76
NYMEX:NGZ2020Long
by lynaldendips
Natural Gas - Bought the DipNatural Gas prices got hammered this past week. There's too much supply and not enough demand however, prices are near the bottom of the trading range and Summer heat should give prices a boost soon. It's also worth mentioning that the Dollar DXY is trending lower and which is bullish for all commodities. Prices are breaking out of a downtrend so I've opened a long position on the September(U) contract. It's nearing the end of the month and the August(Q) contract will expire soon. +1 @ $1.725 ($QGU20)
NYMEX:NGU2020Long
by lynaldendips
Natural Gas - Buy the HeatHot weather will likely boost Natural Gas prices in the near term so I opened a long position after price broke above $1.80 again. $QG - E-mini Natural Gas Futures +1 @ $1.815 Sell Limit -1 @ $1.94 Additionally, the MACD is showing bullish momentum on the 4hr chart and prices are being supported by the 50 and 200 EMA. If price clears $1.83 I see the momentum taking it up to $1.94 at the very least and $2.04 at the most. Should prices fall I might buy more and average down my cost basis since I don't think prices will stay down for very long under these conditions. weather.com
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Long
by lynaldendips
UNG: NG Natural Gas Declining Through Summer on Low DemandNG Natural Gas August futures contract has been declining on cancelled LNG shipments and low national demand. US supply keeps steady outpacing demand. US demand started improving on June 21st due to reopening of NY-NJ-PA economies. However, Texas extended its lockdowns, counteracting positive effect of the East Coast. Seasonal heat is high. But with 40-50 August LNG shipments cancelled, the market may remain in oversupplied state for months to come. August 24th may be a potential turning point for natural gas. Prices are likely to continue decline under current oversupplied conditions. Analysts see target support at $1.25, 1995 low, and then at $1.00, all-time low. Resistance is seen at $1.52, and $1.60 levels. Technicals: Daily chart is pointing to a neat-term bottom with potential upward move within declining channel. NG rolled into August contract, which was trading higher than July contract, which could explain a Friday pop. There is a possibility for a near-term price improvement to $1.65- $1.75 level (tentative), between July 1st and July 17th, with continuing decline after mid July.
NYMEX:NGN2020
by tradexchart
Natural Gas - Summer 2020As of now, expecting lots of chop within a range between $1.50 and $1.83 all Summer. Supply is abundant and demand is slow however, bankruptcies from 25-year low prices will soon take chunks out of production and demand may have bottomed already. Hot weather forecasts in high demand states (the South and Northeast) should also pop prices. Risk to the downside is if New York starts locking down again, signalling more demand loss on the way. Trade strategy: Buy near the bottom of the range and sell near the top and/or on bounces from the 200 (4hr) EMA If there is a daily close below $1.50 or some kind of big push below that level I'll close all positions. Active trades ($QG Natural Gas E-Micro Futures): +1 @ $1.53
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Long
by lynaldendips
NG: UGAZ: Natural Gas Consolidating Lower. Demand Improving.NG Natural Gas July futures contract continues declining on recent lower demand. Fundamentals are still bearish: low LNG exports, 4 Bcd vs 9 Bcd in the winter, and cooler weather over North East. The temperature is expected go higher on June 25-28, per NatGasWeather. With economy reopening on June 20-21, EIA weekly report may turn bullish in the 1st week of July. The chart is oversold; buyers are coming in at $1.60 level. Last week build was 93 bcf. A build below 90 bcf would be a bullish sign. A short-covering rally may happen soon in anticipation of improving demand. Lower prices are still possible, if LNG exports do not improve, or weather does not prove to be hot enough. Yet, reopening of the economy should boost demand significantly moving into July.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
NG: Natural Gas Further ConsolidationNatural Gas NG July futures bounced last week on warmer weather and production cuts. On Friday we saw a pullback, as weather forecasts lost some CDDs (cooling degree days). UNG fund started August contract roll on June 12 -17. Technicals: Daily and 4 Hr chart are pointing toward lower prices; 1 Hr chart is forming a bottom. We may have a short-term bounce from lower levels, but overall direction is pointing toward lower prices, or consolidation. Fundamentals: demand/supply balance remains bearish in the near-term; prolonged heat is required to produce a rally in prices, although the number of rigs has declined by 7. Second half of June was expected to be hotter per last week's forecast, but on Friday, weather pattern turned cooler, with lower demand for cooling. Until the next heat wave emerges, we may be facing lower prices. Crude oil prices are declining due to high inventories build and worries about slow economic recovery, adding to the bearish picture. On the positive note, economy is reopening in higher consumption states, NY, NJ, and PA on June 20th. Weekly EIA report capturing this period may show higher consumption two weeks from now. Until then, a strong prolonged heat wave is required to change current bearish price pattern.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
UGAZ: NG Demand Rising. Positive Divergence?Natural gas demand is rising due to electric power sector demand increase. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 3.9% compared with the previous report week. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 10.1% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 5.9%. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.3% week over week. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 4.8%. (Data from EIA report, last week). Technicals are showing a positive divergence between momentum and price; MACD is showing higher bottoms (coiling) while NG prices continue to consolidate. A potential for a break to the upside? Waiting for Thursday EIA report. This week residential demand is continuing to rise because of hot weather. Industrial sector is also picking up due to reopening. Hurricane reduced production by 1 bcf, although produced delays with LNG exports. Fundamentals are turning bullish, although we are still oversupplied. May need another 2 weeks of growing demand to overcome high storage build.
NYMEX:NGN2020
by tradexchart
May 10 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: A simplified analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $2965 Low-Volume Area; Targets $2940, $3015; VWAP Feb ‘20 High, Mar ‘20 Low, and Dec ‘18 Low. Technical: Broad market indices, such as the Nasdaq (/NQ), have shown relative strength, trending higher and experiencing muted liquidations. The Russell (/RTY) took back the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) anchored from the Feb ‘20 high, which also corresponds to its 50% fibonacci retracement level. Above current prices is a low-volume area which developed when participants had solid downside directional conviction. The short term strategy is to fade (short resistance, long support). When you trade into an area of low-volume, then sentiment (directional conviction) has changed and movement is swift. In case of the S&P 500, acceptance above Friday’s late-day spike may point to the subsequent penetration of the low-volume area and swift movement to $3015, the other end of that area. Spending minimal time above Friday’s spike base and high would point to rotation back into the high volume area we are attempting to leave. These high-volume areas are sticky, since they develop when prices slow to satisfy two-sided, rotational trade. Last week I said that if the market reverses and overtakes the initiative activity that created the gap, then sentiment has changed. Well, we reversed. Despite the market moving higher on Tuesday, participants did not have enough conviction to follow through. We left behind a thick area of value and an intraday poor high before selling-off on the Fed Clarida doom and gloom news. Excess was established lower, during the overnight session. The type of selling that occured on Tuesday was not accompanied by new money, left value behind, and offered a good opportunity to sell puts or establish some low-risk long positions. On Wednesday, we sold off again, leaving mechanical looking highs. When the following day retraced that selling, the context was there for repair of Tuesday’s high. All this put together, the most important note to be made is Friday’s continuation higher on terrible economic news. If the fundamental context is crap and we go higher, I’m not going to be bearish. In case of upside, targets include $2940 and $3015. On a continuation lower, targets include $2860, $2820, and $2786, the convergence of significant references. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Key Events: CPI; Initial Claims; Retail Sales; Industrial Production; UoM Confidence; Inventories; Producer Prices; Import Prices; Earnings. Moody’s projects retail and apparel spec grade default rate to surge. bit.ly European automakers restart production. Demand pickup remains questionable. bit.ly Shell dividend cut good for credit, but highlights downturn severity. bit.ly ISM non-manufacturing index falls as prices rise on increased shipping costs. bit.ly Market priced in negative U.S. interest rates. reut.rs Second phase of reopening to see turnover and employment impact. reut.rs China is not complying with the Phase 1 trade deal. bit.ly Borrowing plummeted as consumers pulled back credit card use. bit.ly Mortgage forbearance requests plateau. bit.ly Virus shock to reduce some banks’ capital, increase credit vulnerability. bit.ly Industrial Metals Price Index suggests downturn will lack GFC severity. bit.ly Mortgage applications from homebuyers show an improving trend. bit.ly Treasury to issuer longer-dated debt to finance growing deficit. on.mktw.net Sentiment: 23.7% Bullish, 23.7% Neutral, 52.7% Bearish as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 3,754,598,011 as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 44.1% as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: /ES: AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX /NQ: NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX /RTY: AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT /YM: AMEX:DIA DJCFD:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA /GC: AMEX:GLD /CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL /NG: AMEX:UNG /ZB: NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik