Bitcoin - Trend Shift Confirmed, Eyes on $102.8K LiquidityMarket Context
Bitcoin showed signs of exhaustion after a strong short-term rally within a clean upward channel on the 1H chart. Price action had been respecting the trend structure until a key deviation occurred near $108,500, where we saw an internal liquidity sweep that hinted at potential distribution.
Fake-Out Confirmation and Shift in Momentum
After taking out local highs around $108.5K, price failed to continue higher and instead reversed sharply, confirming the sweep as a classic fake-out. This kind of internal liquidity grab is typically used to trap breakout buyers before reversing and targeting previous lows.
Break of Structure and Channel Retest
The rising channel was broken convincingly, and price has now retested the underside of the channel, aligning with the 50% equilibrium of the entire high-to-low range. This reinforces the bearish bias and suggests the market has likely shifted from accumulation to distribution.
Downside Targets and Key Levels
Immediate support sits around $104.6K, which served as a consolidation base during the earlier run-up. If this level fails to hold, the next key target would be a sweep of the previous significant low at $102.8K. This area is marked as a point of interest and could offer a reaction or reversal.
Price Expectations and Trade Outlook
As long as price remains below the broken channel and under $107K, the bearish scenario remains in play. I’m watching for bearish continuation into $104.6K first, and a potential full sweep toward $102.8K if that support fails.
Conclusion
The internal sweep followed by impulsive rejection, combined with a clear channel breakdown and retest, shifts the bias to bearish. A move into the $104.6K region seems probable, with a lower liquidity target at $102.8K in sight if downside pressure accelerates.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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