DOGEUSDT If Dogecoin can maintain a range between $0.124 and $0.198 from now on, I’d consider that a very optimistic scenario. The U.S. attack on Iran, followed by the Hormuz Strait blockade, has heightened global economic uncertainty. As is well known, Bitcoin has failed to act as a safe-haven asset since 2019. From that point, cryptocurrencies have no longer been attractive investments during crises.
In South Korea, Dogecoin fell over 5% overnight but later recovered to close with a loss in the low 2% range. Personally, I see less than a 50% chance of it dropping below $0.13. I’m not entirely ruling out $0.11, but if Dogecoin reaches that level, I believe it will only briefly touch it before rebounding. If conditions change, I’ll adjust my view, but for now, I think it’s most likely to consolidate with $0.13 as the floor. My reasoning is based on the 2-day and 3-day charts, where long-term moving averages align around $0.13. More precisely, the 275-day moving average on the 3-day chart supports this. The price has broken above and settled around this level, which makes a drop below it less likely.
Regardless, I still believe the bottom will form in July, with a rally starting between mid-October and early November. The outlook is grim. To control inflation, wars must be avoided, but conflicts are erupting worldwide, and governments involved in these wars keep injecting cash into markets. In this scenario, we’d be lucky if interest rates just stay flat. Cryptocurrencies need liquidity to rise, but all conditions are currently negative for them. If Dogecoin falls below $0.11, the bottom might not form in July but rather between mid-October and early November. I hope it doesn’t come to that.
ps. Of course, it may go down by breaking through the 275-day moving average based on the 3-day chart. Then, I think the price of Dogecoin will really fall a lot.
