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US 500 (SPI) / US DollarUS 500 (SPI) / US DollarUS 500 (SPI) / US Dollar

US 500 (SPI) / US Dollar

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SPX500 Technical Outlook: Balancing Risk and RewardPost Content: 🔍 SPX500 Analysis - 4H Timeframe Our latest technical analysis showcases a detailed approach to the S&P 500 Index using Smart Money Concepts, Fibonacci tools, and volume dynamics. Here's the breakdown: 1️⃣ Trend Structure The price has formed a wedge within the premium zone, indicating potential exhaustion. BOS and ChOCH markers highlight key pivots, emphasizing a weak high and strong low. 2️⃣ Fibonacci Insights We're observing equilibrium near 5,668.57, a critical area where price may consolidate or pivot. Higher Fibonacci extensions suggest an upside target near 6,580.38, should momentum hold. 3️⃣ Risk-Adjusted Strategy Short Opportunity: Bearish retracement expected toward equilibrium; target around 5,668.57. Long Opportunity: Look for confirmations to buy at the discount zone or post-retracement breakout above the weak high. 4️⃣ Volume Dynamics Spikes at key pivot points signal institutional activity, strengthening the validity of liquidity zones. 📊 Trade Setup Overview Entry: Short near premium zone OR Long near equilibrium/discount zone. Stop-Loss: Place below the strong low for longs or above weak highs for shorts. Target: Extensions at 6,580.38 align with the broader bullish sentiment. 🎯 Key Takeaway: This model emphasizes patience, precision, and risk management. Be sure to monitor upcoming macro events and confirm entry triggers before committing to any position. 🌟 Follow WaverVanir International LLC for more actionable insights, technical breakdowns, and AI-driven strategies! 📈 Trade Safe, Team WaverVanir International LLC
FX:SPX500Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Us500:What is going to happen?hello friends👋 This time we are here with the analysis of us500, an important and vital index in the market that is being talked about a lot these days. Well, let's go to the analysis, you will see that with the drop we had, a lower floor was made and the price was quickly supported and pumped by buyers. Now it is clear that an ascending pattern has been formed, which is a very strong support in the specified area and a good buying point that you can enter into a transaction with capital and risk management. Note that if the floor is broken and the stop loss is placed, our bullish pattern becomes invalid and we have to wait for lower floors. 🔥Follow us for more signals🔥 *Trade safely with us*
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheHunters_Company
1
🇺🇸 America at the Crossroads: Golden Age or Great Reset? As the S&P 500 crosses 6,000 , investors celebrate yet another all-time high. But beneath the surface of this rally lies an uncomfortable truth: we are standing at a national and market inflection point. This isn’t just another leg up. This is the top of a century-long trend channel, a moment where all prior historical peaks have led to sharp reversion . Will this time be different? 📉 Or are we heading into the final blow-off top of a fiat-fueled bull market ? 📈 Or is this the birth of a new nominal supercycle — a “Golden Age” driven by AI, deglobalization, and fiscal firehoses? 📊 The Chart That Frames the Future This chart stretches back to 1926. Price now presses against the upper blue boundary , just like in: 1929 → Great Depression 2000 → Dot-com Crash 2021 → Post-COVID Inflation Panic Every previous touch has ended in multi-year mean reversion . Will we now break out — or break down? 🕰️ The Fiat Currency Clock Is Ticking “The average lifespan of a fiat currency is 80–100 years.” The U.S. defaulted on gold bonds in 199 and the U.S. dollar was untethered from gold in 1971. We're many years into a fiat system. Every fiat regime in history has collapsed under debt, inflation, and loss of confidence . 📉 K-Shaped Economy and the Strained Consumer Since 2008, monetary policy has disproportionately enriched capital holders. Asset owners got rich. Wage earners stagnated. Now we see: -Record-high credit card interest -Rising consumer delinquencies -Real wages trailing inflation This is not a healthy economy — it’s a two-speed system with widening fractures. 📈 The Most Expensive Market in History? CAPE Ratio : ~33x — rivaling 1929 and 2000 ZIRP is gone , yet valuations remain elevated Investors are pushed out the risk curve by low real bond yields This is the result of TINA (There Is No Alternative) — but that narrative is fragile. 🏦 Cracks in the Core: Treasuries and Liquidity The U.S. Treasury market is flashing red: Weakening auction demand Foreign buyers (like China, Japan) stepping back Bank of Japan may be forced to liquidate U.S. debt Liquidity is thinning — just like in 2007 🤖 AI and the Accelerating Wealth Gap AI is a double-edged sword: It boosts productivity But it eliminates mid-skill jobs It consolidates wealth into a few mega-cap tech monopolies And it strains an already outdated energy grid AI could fuel inequality and fragility . 🌍 End of Globalization and Rise of BRICS The BRICS alliance is actively challenging dollar hegemony Trade is shifting to commodity-backed and bilateral settlement U.S. foreign policy is being stress-tested on multiple fronts (Ukraine, Taiwan, Middle East) The post-WWII order is unraveling. And America must adapt — or lose ground. ⚠️ Blow-Off Top Before the Storm? This market feels like a blow-off top : Narrow breadth Retail mania AI euphoria Massive fiscal deficits All-time high valuations Next step? A potential deflationary bust , followed by a stimulus-fueled inflationary wave — especially in energy and commodities. ⚡ Power Grid Risk in an Electrified World AI and EVs demand **enormous energy inputs**. But: U.S. grid is **underdeveloped** Transmission infrastructure is outdated Blackouts are increasing China, meanwhile, has been quietly building resilient grid systems for over a decade taking advantage of Nuclear, while The U.S. risks falling behind. 🌀 The Fourth Turning: Crisis as Catalyst “History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain According to Fourth Turning theory, we are nearing the climax of a ~100-year generational cycle — a period marked by institutional breakdown, global conflict, and radical transformation. Each cycle contains four “turnings,” and we are now deep into the fourth: the Crisis phase. The current Fourth Turning began in 2008 with the Global Financial Crisis. It is expected to resolve sometime between 2025 and the early 2030s — a period of upheaval that mirrors previous turning points such as: The Great Depression & World War II (1929–1946) The American Civil War (1861–1865) The Revolutionary War (1775–1794) As Neil Howe writes in The Fourth Turning Is Here (2023): “Each Fourth Turning is a time of radical disruption — a time when an old order is replaced by a new one, often through war, collapse, or revolution. ” Today, we face: Political polarization at generational extremes Sovereign debt levels previously only seen during world wars Eroding trust in media, financial institutions, and government Technological upheaval via AI and automation Geopolitical flashpoints from Ukraine to Taiwan The market, the dollar, and our political system are not outside this cycle — they are central to it. The question is no longer whether we are in a transformation, but: What kind of world will emerge on the other side? 🚧 The Fork in the Road: Two Futures We stand at a fork in the road — not just for markets, but for **America’s future**: 🟢 Path 1: The Breakout – Golden Age AI revolution supercharges GDP Commodities rise but wages lag Treasury/Fed normalize debt via inflation S&P and assets soar in **nominal terms**, even if real value lags 🔴 Path 2: The Reversion – Great Reset Credit cycle breaks Liquidity vanishes Markets mean revert 40–60% Global capital flees to safety 🧠 Final Thought: Don’t Chase the Top “At the top of a long-term channel, humility is a better strategy than hubris.” Now is not the time to blindly chase momentum. Whether we break out or break down, the risks are rising — and history offers few second chances after peaks like this. We stand not only at a technical inflection, but at a civilizational one. The Fourth Turning is reaching its apex, and markets are reflecting that tension — between collapse and rebirth, between order and entropy. 📌 Hedge. 📌 Diversify. 📌 Prepare. Because one way or another, America is crossing a threshold — and there’s no going back.
SP:SPX
by jonlorquet
The Market Sways and Trump sets a deadline ‼️ Hey hey, hope all is well, don't have too much time so just gonna keep this short and get at what we need right now, thanks for tuning in. ‼️ If you've been following the news then you understand that tensions are pretty high, the conflict in the Middle East is progressively getting worse and worse by the day with The United States now looking to play peacemaker between Iran and Israel. ‼️ Trump himself has given a two week deadline for him to decide on whether or not the United States will join the fight and bomb Iran which notably has the market shaken. Below I've added a link with a reference to an article which highlights the recent news and trumps deadline. www.npr.org ‼️ Historically, we've seen trump do this before, he's no stranger to setting deadlines, especially when it comes to global conflicts. As the article also references, trump has done this before, take April 24th for example when a reporter asked Trump on his position with continuing military assistance for Ukraine: "You can ask that question in two weeks, and we'll see" responded Trump. It's become a tactic that Trump has used often throughout his term's prompting the question of whether or not we will really see him take action by the end of the two weeks or not. So we should take that understanding and take everything with a grain of salt. ‼️ The market itself is already use to the idea of war or joining a fight like we had to deal with when fighting started between Ukraine and Russia which shook the market before things ultimately got back to routine and the market was able to price in the war. I do have to note though that the global conflicts in Ukraine are much more different than those in the Middle East so that should be taken into consideration as well. ‼️ That being said on Saturday Trump made the announcement that the U.S had launched an attack on three of Iran's main nuclear sites signifying the U.S may be ready to join the fray. That or they have taken advantage of the high tensions to launch an attack of their own to beat at Iran's nuclear progress in order to delay, prevent them from acquiring a nuclear capability understandably. ‼️ I have to go but for technical analysis we'll be watching that 200 EMA for our bullish and bearish convergences, as well as news which will give us an idea of what way the market will head. Definitely one of those times to sit and watch how things play out, we've already come relatively close to retesting our all time high breaking above 6,000 so the market's definitely got some energy. We've dealt with this before but should the U.S really get itself involved with the war and bomb Iran then I would expect the global markets to react heavily. We've seen the U.S offer aid to countries such as Ukraine but when speaking about joining war that's a different matter entirely. ‼️ Definitely be mindful of the news the next few weeks as things progress and don't be to rash with your decision and choices, stick to what's worked and let's focus on what's worked. Paying mind to our indicators and strategies alongside much patience. ‼️ Thank you for tuning in with me as always, appreciate the constant support and wishing all the best. Feel free to keep tuned for more and thanks again. Best regards, ~ Rock '
SP:SPX
by Rocksorgate
1
Geopolitics vs. Fed: SPX500 Trading Below Key Pivot at 5966SPX500 – Overview Geopolitical Tensions & Rate Decisions Keep Markets on Edge Investor focus has shifted from monetary policy to geopolitics, as speculation grows over a potential U.S. military strike on Iran. According to Bloomberg, senior U.S. officials are reportedly preparing for possible action in the coming days. This comes as global markets remain cautious ahead of key central bank meetings that are expected to provide updated guidance on growth and inflation. Technical Outlook: SPX500 remains under bearish pressure as long as the price trades below 5966. A break and hold below 5966 targets 5938, with further downside toward 5902 and 5885 For a shift to bullish momentum, price must stabilize above 6010 • Support: 5938 / 5902 / 5885 • Resistance: 5989 / 6010 / 6041
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Where will the market goes from here ?Gap or hole to be filled up reminds me of looking at your own wallet. How many times did you realise that you were low on cash (yes in SG, we still use a lot of physical cash) and needs to go to the ATM machine to withdraw money to fill it up. Logically, from the chart, it appears that option 2 is more likely to happen first before we think a rally picks up thereafter, right ? Nobody can tells you for certain where the market is going and that is why it is easier to REACT to the market moves and follows the trend rather than oppose it and predicts how it should moves. At any time, there can be short sellers, institutional buyers, government agencies, algo traders, etc that are in the market with tons of cash to move the market. How can you possibly knows as a retail trader ? That is why it is wiser and financially prudent to follow the market trend and not go against it. If it breaks up to 6126 resistance level, I will add more for the 2nd leg bullish run. However, if it falls to the support at 5741 level, I will buy slightly more as it has becomes cheaper. Either way, I am long term bullish on the market
SP:SPXLong
by dchua1969
S&P500 Channel Up buy opportunity.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up and is now on a count (5) pull-back, breaking below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we expect the index to resume the uptrend, similar to the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel Up. That Leg almost reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and made a Higher High. Our Target is marginally below the new 1.5 Fib ext at 6130. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
Weekly Red Candles Signal Potential PullbackOn the weekly chart, two clean red candles have formed. The price is struggling to move higher — every attempt to break above is being sold off. An additional factor is geopolitical tension, which puts extra pressure on bullish momentum. After such an exponential rally, I expect at least a pullback . Could there be a new high and breakout above resistance? Yes, it's possible. But the current setup offers a clear stop-loss just 1.60% below the current price — a small and comfortable risk. This is not a quick trade. I plan to hold the position anywhere from 1 week to 1 month, depending on how the market develops. Therefore, I choose an optimal position size for my account, knowing that margin will be frozen.
SP:SPXShort
by kventinka
Markets Watch: Caution Ahead? U.S. stock index futures rose Monday, buoyed by easing oil prices, even as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran simmer in the background. All eyes are now on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. 👀💼 But here’s the catch on the S&P 500 👇 🔹 Price is stalling at a resistance line, tracing back to March highs 🔹 Daily RSI shows major divergence, signalling a loss of momentum 🔹 Rally is slowing just as it approaches the Feb all-time high at 6147 📉 If the index fails to hold and breaks below: 🔻 The 200-day MA at 5808 🔻 Key pivot levels at 5773 (Jan low) and 5787 (March peak) …then we could see real downside pressure emerge. 🛑 For now, the market is showing red flags at a critical level. Stay alert — this could get interesting. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
SP:SPXShort
by The_STA
S&P500 INTRADAY support retest The Israel-Iran conflict has now entered its fourth day, with no signs of de-escalation. Iran launched more missile attacks, while Israel struck back, targeting a major gas field and a key military figure. Notably, Israeli strikes damaged Iran’s uranium facility in Isfahan, and an Iranian missile caused minor damage near the U.S. consulate in Tel Aviv. While these developments added geopolitical stress, markets showed some resilience: Oil prices pulled back after initial gains but remain volatile as the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East — a region supplying ~1/3 of global crude — persists. S&P 500 futures edged higher, indicating investors are not fully in risk-off mode, but remain cautious. On the political front, Donald Trump reportedly blocked an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader. He mentioned the possibility of a future agreement between the two sides but said more conflict may come first. Trump is attending the G7 summit in Canada today, where leaders will discuss how to manage the Middle East crisis and navigate diplomacy with Trump. For S&P 500 traders: Monitor oil prices — a sharp spike on new escalation could weigh on risk sentiment. Headlines from the G7 and any sign of U.S. involvement or de-escalation efforts could shift markets. Geopolitical risk remains elevated, but the market is currently pricing in a contained conflict. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6,058 Resistance Level 2: 6,138 Resistance Level 3: 6,200 Support Level 1: 5,953 Support Level 2: 5,913 Support Level 3: 5,845 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPY where are we going into OPEX and last week of June tradingYesterday was almost an indecision candle on daily. Markets cheered the jobs data earlier in day with a nice green candle, however the pump faded going into FOMC, where AMEX:SPY and SP:SPX were around 600/ 6000 at 2pm. FOMC event mostly turned out to be a "non-event". While the no rate cut and 2 for 2025 were largely expected, Powell spooked the markets commenting that he expects higher inflation in months ahead due to tariffs. Off course this set of a set of comments from Trump which was expected as well. While markets are closed today (Juneteenth) futures are open, and in after hours and now we have drifted downwards... as of this writing SPX is around 5950. Bulls lost the 9 sma yesterday and now are trying to defend the 20 sma. Tomorrow is OPEX so expect some volatility and movement to where big money is positioned. Certainly bulls can show up and reclaim 9 ma at 6003 or if we lose 5950, the next level down is below 5800. Meanwhile JPM collar is intact... Do we go down from here. Tomorrow will be key as we will know if we have lost 20 sma or regained 9 sma and how this week candle looks like. Bulls can charge but is there enough gas in tank to make meaningful upside move? Maybe possible pump to open next week (around 6060 was recent high), but bears are now lurking to take us down towards that 5800 level next week. As I said earlier tomorrow will be telling and I will update over the weekend.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Options_Life_