Market at 10amSome quick notes. Everything looks choppy. Gold looks promising for an upmove. Natural gas maybe breaking out.
SPIUSD trade ideas
What do we need to know before investing?If you are thinking about investing money for the potential returns it offers, you should know that it may go well, but that there are always risks. That’s why we are going to give you some basic tips to bear in mind before making any investment decision.
How much money are you going to invest?
First of all, you need to decide how much money you want to put towards your financial investments.
The markets are subject to change
The financial markets are constantly fluctuating. The term volatility is the most commonused term to describe and measure the uncertainty provided by changes to theprices of financial assets.
Additionally, there are times in the market when the prices are more pronounced and every now and then there are crisis periods and asset prices fall dramatically.
Investing in financial markets means that we have to assume that our investments will always be subject to these types of fluctuations. If you are going to invest in the financial markets the money that you invest must be money that you will not need during the investment term.
That’s why, investing in order to obtain short term gains is inevitably associated with high risk. Furthermore, the larger our intended gains, the larger the associated risk. Always bear in mind that the greater the expected returns, the greater the assumed risk. Once again, be sure that you do not need the money that you are going to invest, as it may have losses.
The opposite can be said of long term investments, where the capacity to wait and overcome falls in the market means that you can assume more risk with your investments. With a long term vision you will avoid having to experience any possible losses with your investment period due to any eventual liquidity needs.
How much risk are you willing to take on?
Before investing it is important to know the risk you can assume. Every investor has their own risk tolerance level that they need to be aware of. Risks and returns go hand in hand, because for more returns you also need to take on more risk, and vice versa.
It is also good to know that just as with normal market conditions, those assets with a higher risk tend to suffer more fluctuations with their prices than those assets with less risk.
Therefore, in general terms:
When the forecasts for the financial markets are favourable and the market goes up, those assets with higher expected returns generally perform excellently.
Whenever the financial markets are going through uncertain times, those assets with higher expected returns, and therefore more risk, tend to perform worse.
You must start from a strong financial position
To invest you need to be at a point where your accounts are well under control, including your debts. We do not mean to say that if you have any outstanding credit you cannot invest, but it is essential that everything is in order and that you are in a situation where you can fulfil your financial obligations.
On the other hand, to build long term wealth, it is important that you assign part of your income to your savings, meaning that you have to invest with the money left over after making your payments while also saving part of what you earn.
It is important to keep a composed outlook
Now we know that investing bears its own risks and that the market is subject to change, it is essential to be composed when investing. When investing it is important to think positively, as if you don’t really believe that things will work out, why invest?
It is one thing to be cautious, and to know how much money to invest and what level of risk tolerance to assume, and another to think negatively each time there is a drop in the market. In reality, investing is a combination of caution and composure.
Diversification is the key to success
Somebody with less investment experience may make the mistake of putting all of their investment budget into just one thing. However, it is much better to have diverse investments, as while some investments may not quite work out as you would have liked them to, some do even better.
Losses are normal, and so are returns
We previously said that when investing it is important to stay calm, and that is true. In this regard, you also have to bear in mind that it is normal for some investments in your portfolio to not perform as well as you had expected.
We cannot predict the behaviour of the financial markets or of certain assets. We can also unexpectedly find ourselves with some assets that don’t perform as well as we had hoped. That is why we recommend, in addition to not risking more than you can invest, to diversify your investments well.
We have already said that investment involves risk, which is why it is good to know that if you are willing to invest, you are also willing to take on risks. If you are prepared to take on this risk, you can be successful in your investments.
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by HollyMontt
How Financial Markets Are Reacting to Middle East EscalationHow Financial Markets Are Reacting to the Escalation in the Middle East
The exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel continues. However, judging by the behaviour of various assets, market participants do not appear to expect further escalation:
→ Oil prices are falling. Monday’s candlestick on the XBR/USD chart closed significantly below the opening level.
→ Safe-haven assets are also retreating: the Swiss franc weakened during Monday’s U.S. session, while a bearish candle formed on the daily XAU/USD chart.
Equity markets, too, have largely held their ground.
The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) climbed on Monday (A→B) following reports of potential talks between Iran and the U.S. However, it pulled back (B→C) after the U.S. President urged citizens to evacuate Tehran.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
News of Israeli strikes on targets inside Iran led to a bearish breakout from the rising channel (marked with a red arrow), though the downward move failed to gain traction.
At present, the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the formation of an ascending triangle — a signal of temporary balance between supply and demand.
Still, given the elevated geopolitical uncertainty, this balance remains fragile. It could be disrupted by:
→ Further developments in the Iran–Israel conflict (notably, Donald Trump left the G7 summit early due to the situation in the Middle East);
→ U.S. retail sales data , due today at 15:30 GMT+3.
It is possible that the S&P 500 may soon attempt to break out of the triangle , potentially triggering a new directional trend.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX: geopolitics shaping sentiment Although the previous week on US equity markets started with a positive sentiment, still the newly emerged tensions in the Middle East turned the sentiment to the negative side. The S&P 500 was looking for higher grounds, after recently reaching the 6K level again, however, turning 1,13% to the negative territory on Friday, after the news regarding the Middle East tensions. The index is back below the 6K, closing the week at 5.976. While investors were digesting the risks from the Middle East tensions, tech companies were the ones that were mostly driving the index to the down side. NVDA dropped by 2,09%, AAPL was down by 1,38%. On the opposite side was TSLA, with a Fridays gain of 1,94%.
On the other hand, the macro fundamentals were relatively positive for the US economy. The inflation is clearly calming down, with the US inflation in May at 0,1%, which was better from market estimate. Also the University of Michigan Consumer sentiment preliminary for June showed decreased inflation expectation by US consumers, at 5,1% for this year, from 6,6% posted previously.
The most important event during the week ahead would be the FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, June 18th. The Fed will also discuss the economic projections. This would be a day to watch on financial markets as it can bring some higher volatility.
Is SPX at a crucial point here.... inflection point?Until yesterday, it seemed that bulls were fully in control chugging along to make new ATH or go closer to previous ATH. Seemed like SPX was breaking from ascending triangle. Looked bulllish going into this Opex close, certainly propped by good data and good tariff comments.
Now with the recent war news, and the dip we had yesterday, seems like new pattern emerging (rising wedge) which is bearish. Also keep in mind the JPM hedge that expires end of month. The open interest shows that JPM hedge is still alive (they havent closed) and based on my calculations currently JPM has a loss of around $622M.
To stem losses market at minimum needs to be below 5900 by end of month (at 5900 JPM loses $59M but its chump change for them) and for them to be neutral or make money then SPX needs to be 5300 and below by end of month.
Currently around 5975, would mean a drop of 500-600 points in next 2 weeks... certainly can happen....
Appreciate your comments!
S&P 500 Breaks UptrendS&P 500 Breaks Uptrend
Only yesterday we questioned the sustainability of the stock market’s upward trend amid alarming news from the Middle East and the evacuation of the US embassy in Iraq — and today, the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows a break below the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel.
According to media reports:
→ Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, was expected to meet Iran’s Foreign Minister in Oman on Sunday.
→ Friday the 13th became the date when Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, dramatically altering the outlook for a potential US-Iran nuclear agreement.
→ Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US was not involved in the operation, while Israel’s state broadcaster reported that Washington had been informed ahead of the strikes.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Yesterday morning, we noted that the Q-line, which divides the lower half of the channel into two quarters, had shifted from acting as support to becoming resistance. This was confirmed during the US trading session (as indicated by the arrow).
Selling pressure intensified, and the psychologically important 6,000 level — which showed signs of support earlier in June — now appears to be acting as resistance. It is in this area that the E-Mini S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) broke below the lower boundary of its uptrend channel.
In addition to ongoing discussions about potential Fed rate cuts this summer, geopolitical risk assessments are now also in focus. It remains unclear how Washington will respond if Iran retaliates.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Defence Minister has declared a state of emergency, warning of an imminent missile and drone attack — further fuelling fears of a possible escalation.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bulls game over now 4611 incoming Weekly TF down move incoming..Fasten your seatbelt please..Big move incoming.. Good luck and safe Short from 6040 Tp 4611
S&P500: Targeting 7,000 by the end of the year.S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.729, MACD = 100.990, ADX = 19.772) as it is extending the bullish wave started on the April 7th bottom. The long term formation is a Bullish Megaphone and the previous bullish wave peaked after a +48.33% rise. With the 1W RSI pattern almost identical as then, we remain bullish on SPX, TP = 7,000.
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SPX500 Under Pressure Amid Renewed Israel-Iran TensionsSPX500 Overview
Israel-Iran Truce Hopes Collapse
Investor hopes for a swift de-escalation between Israel and Iran were quickly shattered as both sides resumed hostilities. The situation intensified further after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranian civilians to evacuate Tehran and abruptly ended his participation at the G7 summit, reportedly convening the U.S. National Security Council.
These developments have fueled broad risk-off sentiment across markets.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 remains under bearish pressure as long as the price trades below 6010. A continued drop toward the key support at 5966 is likely, with a break below this level potentially opening the path to 5938 and 5902.
However, if the price stabilizes above 5966 without breaking it, we may see a rebound attempt toward 6010 and 6041.
Any signs of negotiation or de-escalation in the conflict could trigger a strong bullish reversal.
Support: 5966, 5938, 5902
Resistance: 6041, 6098, 6143
SPX/USDI've been calling for a crash for a while.
The closer to the top you are, the more hatred that you'll get for calling one.
It's a difficult position being contrary to the crowd. I think that's why Peter denied Jesus.
In any case, positive sentiment must end and as overdue as it is, I'm expecting a bang, after a final wave of FOMO.
$SPX // June 17 2025 // CPI Analysis & Targets for Day TradersSP:SPX // June 17 2025 // CPI Analysis & Targets for Day Traders
SPX500 – 4H Smart Money Concepts | Compression Breakout & LiquidThe S&P 500 has broken down from a tight ascending wedge within a premium zone, confirming a CHoCH and suggesting a shift in short-term order flow. A corrective move is now unfolding.
🔻 Bearish Short-Term Outlook:
Weak High + CHoCH within the premium zone confirms rejection.
Multiple FVGs below offer potential draw zones:
5,900
5,850
Strong liquidity pool near 5,668.57
🧠 Smart Money Roadmap:
Structure suggests a short-term liquidity hunt below recent lows.
Equilibrium zone rests near 5,650, ideal for reaccumulation/reload.
📈 Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish:
If liquidity objectives are met and macro improves, we may see a bullish reversal back above 6,050 toward:
6,200+
Mid/long-term fib targets near 6,500
📊 Strategy Insight:
Short-term trade: Scalps into the 5,700–5,660 zone.
Macro timing: Watch July CPI/FOMC for bullish or bearish confirmation.
Long-term positioning: Start building once price reclaims structural BOS with a displacement.
🎯 Smart money plays both ways — sweep liquidity, then reprice.
#SPX500 #SMP500 #SmartMoneyConcepts #OrderFlow #LiquiditySweep #FVG #CHoCH #PremiumZone #TechnicalAnalysis #VolumeProfile #EquityMarkets #WaverVanir #TradingView
Down for SPX500USDHi traders,
SPX500USD went exactly to the target of my previous outlook.
After price came into the Daily FVG it rejected from there and started the correction down.
So next week we could see more downside for this pair to finish a bigger correction down.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade short term shorts to the previous Weekly low.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
SPX500 | Bearish Below 6010 Amid Rising Geopolitical TensionsSPX500 | OVERVIEW
The index remains under bearish pressure due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict.
As long as these conditions persist, the market is likely to maintain a downward bias.
Technical Outlook:
As long as the price trades below the 5990–6010 pivot zone, the bearish trend is expected to continue toward 5938.
A confirmed stability below 5938 may lead to further downside toward 5902 and 5858.
A bullish reversal is only likely if hostilities cease or negotiations begin between the conflicting parties.
Pivot Zone: 5990 – 6010
Support Lines: 5938, 5902, 5858
Resistance Lines: 6041, 6098, 6143
previous idea:
Recession? Weak. Let's Do a DepressionS&P pulled a fast one — but the real show might be just warming up.
Markets tease, bounce, tempt. And then — they punish.
After a sharp rebound, S&P500 is still below 6,150, with weak volumes. The recent rally looks more like a bear trap than a new impulse.
Trading note:
Possible short entries can be considered from current levels, with 50% now, 25% near 6,000, and 25% at 6,100. Stop-loss only after 4H close above 6,150. No clean levels below that — only noise and traps.
This market isn't about fundamentals. It's about desperation. Participants are chasing returns in a shrinking pie, taking on absurd risks.
And now, buckle up:
We are entering what might be the most dramatic market weeks in decades. This is setting up to be a mega-short, folks. Get ready for turbulence. Fasten your seatbelts.
---
Important:
This is NOT a recommendation to trade. This is an extremely high-risk scenario shared for discussion purposes only. If you've already made such a mistake and entered, respect your money and risk management. Losses are much harder to recover than gains.
DOOR TO HELL IS ABOUT TO OPEN AND NO ONE IS READY.Well where do I being, firstly the world has become nonsensical and the average joe thinks they are an expert in the financial field. Little do they know the trap has been set and now it's about to be played and the fools that have been investing for the past decade are about to loose everything they worked hard for.
FOOLS DON'T REALISE THAT THE STOCK MARKET IS ABOVE A 100 YEAR TRENDLINE AND THE PAST TIMES IT HAS HIT THIS TRENDLINES 1929, 2000, 2009, 2021, THE MARKET CRASHED AND PUT THESE IDIOTS IN THEIR GRAVES. YOU CANT FKING DISRESPECT A 100 YEAR TRENDLINE AND THINK IT WILL GO PARALABOLIC, "TO THE FKING MOON THEY SAY". Yes I am a bear, the biggest bear in the forest but I am also trying to make people understand what is about to come no one is ready.
SPX Will crash from 6069 to 420, it will drop 30% with a rebound on the 1.618 fib to 550 and then the mother of all crashes will come into play a 80-90% correction to 160, the 2009 tops. No one is ready for this play.
SPEAD THOSE CHEEKS WIDE BULLS, WHAT IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN THEIR IS NO RETURN. no homo.
sp500 shortI feel things.
War in the other side that justifies the downside.
It will be amazing to see powel saving the us stock by cutting rates on summer.
Lets chill and see what happens, liquidity is also a position.
SPX500 – Cautious Optimism as Market Eyes Fed DecisionSPX500 – Cautious Optimism as Market Eyes Fed Decision
Futures tied to the S&P 500 are slightly higher as traders appear to be shrugging off Middle East tensions, viewing the situation as contained for now. However, geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk, and attention is shifting toward upcoming Fed commentary and policy direction.
Technical Outlook:
The index may pull back toward 5989 and 5966. A break below 5966 opens the path toward 5938, with an extended target at 5902.
However, a 1H close above 6010 would signal renewed bullish momentum toward 6041.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 6041, 6098, 6143
• Support: 5966, 5938, 5902
SPX500 BUYGreeting there traders this is my analysis on
📊 S&P 500 – Potential Elliott Wave 3 Formation | Long Setup
The current 4H chart of the S&P 500 suggests a potential bullish continuation based on Elliott Wave Theory. Here's the structured breakdown:
🔹 Wave 1: Initiated after a failed breakout and sharp reversal from a previous resistance zone. This impulsive move marked a key shift in trend structure.
🔹 Wave 2: A corrective phase followed, consolidating near the support area (~5,915), respecting previous demand.
🔹 Current Price Action: Price has broken above the minor resistance at 6,000, indicating the potential beginning of Wave 3, which is typically the strongest and most extended wave in the sequence.
📈 Trade Setup:
Entry: Above 6,000 (confirmation of breakout and wave continuation)
Stop Loss: Below 5,915 (invalidates bullish structure if broken)
Target Zone: 6,167 – 6,170 (aligned with prior resistance and wave projection)
🔍 Additional Notes:
The breakout is supported by a clean structure and rejection from key support.
Ideal scenario would involve increasing volume and continuation with higher highs and higher lows.
📌 Bias: Bullish – targeting Wave 3 extension.
⚠️ Always manage risk accordingly and watch for signs of exhaustion or divergence.
Dear Traders like,comment let me know what do you think?
US500 Will Fall! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 10h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,979.56.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,838.14 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P 500 Short Update 2: Shifting wave degreeHi all,
As I explained in this video, the previous idea was invalidated because of an issue with "degree" of wave that a fellow watcher of my idea rightly pointed out in the comments section. I did the change on this video and explain the mistake I made in the previous idea.
In this video, I also talked about the last wave, how it can still be the peak but on the bigger picture, it is still too small compared to wave 1 and 3.
I then recommend 3 "safer" entry points:
1. One reversion trade at the top of the trendline.
2. One breakdown from the diagonal trendline.
3. One breakdown from the 4th wave support price.
Which entry point(s) you choose depends on your personal preference and opportunity. The stop will be above where you identify as the peak at your point of entry.
Good luck!
[06/09] [GEX] Weekly SPX OutlookLast week’s outlook played out quite well — as anticipated, SPX hit the 6000 level, closing exactly there on Friday. This was the realistic target we highlighted in last week's idea.
🔭 SPX: The Bigger Outlook
It's difficult to say whether the rising SPX trend will continue. We're still in the "90-day agreement period" set by the administration, and so far, the market has shown resilience, avoiding deeper pullbacks like the one we saw in April.
With VIX hovering around 17–18, we’ve reached a zone where further SPX upside would require volatility. For the index to continue rising meaningfully, it needs to reverse the current bearish macro environment, and that can only happen with strong buying momentum — not a slow grind.
The parallel downward channel drawn a few weeks ago is still technically valid. Even a short 100-point squeeze would fit within this structure before a larger move down unfolds.
GEX levels give us useful clues heading into Friday. We're currently in a net positive GEX zone across all expirations, giving bulls a structural advantage, just like last week.
As of Monday’s premarket, SPX spot is at 6009.The Gamma Flip zone is between 5975–5990, with a High Volume Level (HVL) at 5985.
🔍 Let’s zoom in with our GEX levels — this gives us a deeper view than our GEX Profile indicator for TradingView alone.
🐂 🟢 If SPX moves higher, the following are logical profit-taking zones:
6050 (Delta ≈ 33)
6075 (Delta ≈ 25)
6100 (Delta ≈ 17)
🎯 Targeting above 6100 currently feels irrational — for instance, the next major gamma squeeze zone is at 6150, but that corresponds to a delta 6 level (≈94% chance the price closes below it), so I won’t aim that high yet.
🐻🔴 In a bearish scenario:
5975 and 5950 are the first nearby support zones (Deltas 30 and 38).
If momentum picks up, 5900 becomes reachable quickly, even if it's technically a 17-delta distance — because that’s deep in the negative GEX zone.
📅 Don’t forget: On Wednesday premarket, we’ll get Core Inflation Rate data — a key macro risk that could shake things up, regardless of TSLA drama fading.
📌 SPX Weekly Trading Plan Conclusion
Whatever your bias, keep cheap downside hedges in place. We've been rising for a long time, and even if SPX breaks out of the descending channel temporarily, resistance and the gamma landscape may pull price back swiftly.
