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A 3-Step Process For Analytical SuccessIn this video I go through the 3-step process of implementing a Bias, Narrative, and Model. This process was a game-changer for me when it came to analysis, as well as taking actual trades. It considered high-probability targets, patience in waiting for traders to coming for me, and the calm of being prepared when it was time to take an entry. It filters out pointless trades, because if I don't have Bias, then I can't have a Narrative, and if I don't have a Narrative, then I don't have a Model. I use ICT concepts, but this process works equally well for most other methodologies that aren't completely mechanical and algorithmic. I give a real example of a trade I took yesterday on EURUSD where I utilized this 3-step process to frame a trade. I hope you find this video insightful and gives you more clarity in your trading! - R2F Trading
Education
by Road_2_Funded
17
MACD: More Than Just a Crossover ToolHello, traders! 🔥 The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is one of the most trusted tools in technical analysis — but often one of the most oversimplified. While many traders focus on signal line crossovers, the real power of MACD lies in its ability to visualize market momentum, subtle shifts in trend strength, and early signs of potential reversals. Let’s unpack how MACD behaves using the weekly BTC/USDT chart ✍🏻. 🔧 Understanding the Mechanics At its core, MACD is the difference between two exponential moving averages — typically the 12-period EMA and the 26-period EMA. The result is the MACD line (blue). The orange line represents a 9-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the MACD line, commonly referred to as the signal line. The histogram reflects the distance between them, helping to visualize when momentum is building or fading. 📊 MACD in Action — Weekly BTC Chart Breakdown Looking at the BTC/USDT weekly chart, several notable MACD behaviors stand out: 1. The Bullish Acceleration in Early 2023 In early 2023, MACD crossed above the signal line, accompanied by a sharp rise in the histogram. This indicated strong positive momentum, as the price began recovering from the 2022 lows. The histogram’s expansion confirmed increasing divergence between the short- and long-term EMAs — a classic sign of trend acceleration. 2. Peak Momentum in Late 2023 Around late 2023, the MACD line peaked while the histogram also reached maximum height. This wasn’t just a confirmation of strength — it also hinted that momentum may have reached a climax. Despite price continuing to rise slightly, the MACD curve started to flatten — an early warning of potential exhaustion in trend strength. 3. Bearish Convergence into Q1 2025 In early 2025, the MACD line turned downward and eventually crossed below the signal line, while the histogram flipped to red. This reflected a cooldown in bullish momentum rather than an immediate reversal. What’s notable is how price didn’t collapse sharply, but moved into a pullback phase — illustrating how MACD can show momentum softening before price visibly reacts. 📌 What This Can Tells Us The MACD indicator on this weekly BTC chart shows how momentum often shifts before the trend itself breaks. Each crossover, divergence, or histogram change is not a guarantee, but a cue to pay closer attention. Key takeaways: Strong Histogram Expansion = Confidence in the Current Move. Peaks in MACD Without Price Making New Highs = Potential Divergence. Shrinking Histogram + Converging Lines = Momentum Stalling. 🧠 Final Thought MACD isn’t just about “buy when it crosses” or “sell on red bars.” It’s a narrative tool, showing how the story of the price develops beneath the surface. On higher timeframes, such as the weekly chart, it can potentially highlight macro momentum shifts long before they become apparent in price action alone.
Education
by WhiteBIT
7
Using Moving Averages Like a ChaseHow Institutions May Be Using Moving Averages to Align Technicals with Fundamentals Are moving averages just for retail traders and chart watchers? Not if you're JPMorgan Chase. While many associate moving averages (MAs) with simple trading strategies, institutional giants like JPMorgan Chase likely use them very differently. Instead of relying on MAs to chase trends, they may use them as confluence tools—where technical signals meet macroeconomic insight, risk models, and long-term strategy. Here’s how JPMorgan might be using moving averages across their medium- to long-term investments—and what you can learn from it. 📊 1. Moving Averages as Investment Benchmarks At the institutional level, MAs aren’t just "buy/sell" triggers. JPMorgan likely treats the 50-day and 200-day moving averages as dynamic references that help answer broader questions: Is this trend aligned with the macro picture? Is this a real shift, or just short-term volatility? How do fund flows behave around these levels? Rather than acting on the average itself, JPMorgan probably uses it to validate investment theses and smooth out the noise. ⚙️ 2. Confluence: Where Technicals and Fundamentals Align In large portfolios, confluence is king. It’s not just about one indicator—but about multiple factors aligning to strengthen conviction. MAs might be used alongside: Macro trends (GDP growth, inflation, interest rates) Sector momentum (e.g. financials vs. tech rotation) Earnings growth and valuation models Liquidity flows and volatility data When a stock reclaims its 200-day MA and fundamentals improve, that’s a green light. When everything lines up, JPMorgan can move with more confidence. 📈 3. A Probabilistic (Not Predictive) Approach Institutions don’t deal in absolutes—they deal in probabilities. JPMorgan’s quant teams likely test how often certain MA setups lead to favorable outcomes under different market regimes. So instead of reacting to a crossover, they may ask: "How often does this setup succeed, given current economic conditions?" If the odds are strong, they’ll scale in. If not, they’ll wait or hedge. It’s a measured, data-driven approach to timing. 🛡️ 4. Risk Management and Strategic Timing Moving averages are also incredibly useful for managing portfolio risk. They offer: Clarity in volatile markets Timing cues for rebalancing Visual structure for entries/exits MAs help JPMorgan place guardrails around long-term positions—keeping strategy in check while avoiding overreactions to noise. 🔍 Final Thought: JPMorgan Isn’t Chasing Trends—They’re Refining Them The lesson for investors? Don’t treat moving averages as magic lines. Used well, they become tools of confirmation and control, not prediction. For JPMorgan Chase, MAs are likely just one piece of a much larger puzzle—blending technicals with fundamentals, data science, and market context to execute with precision. 💡 Pro Tip: You can apply the same idea to your own strategy—use moving averages to validate your thesis, not to drive it. Confluence is the key.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by CandelaCharts
From Tulips to Tech: The Evolution of Financial Bubbles 🎯 Introduction: financial/economic bubbles are a recurring theme in economic history, this is often when a particular financial asset goes to unrealistic price levels often making money for early investors but usually these high price levels do not match their fundamental value this is then followed by a large public participation who also want a piece of the pie eventually with the price collapsing or sharply declining blowing or living investors in a large financial loss.. From 17th-century tulip gardens to 21st-century crypto manias, one thing has remained constant: Humans never learn. Every generation thinks this time is different — but the pattern of bubbles keeps repeating. Here's the crash course in 400 years of financial euphoria, panic, and pain. 🧠 Section 1: 1637 — Tulip Mania 🌷 The original bubble. In the Netherlands, rare tulip bulbs were worth more than houses. Prices exploded... then collapsed 90% in a matter of weeks. Lesson: Speculation + FOMO is not new. Humans were flipping flowers before they flipped crypto. Mini Nerd Tip: "When people stop caring about value and only care about price rising, watch out." 🧠 Section 2: 1720 — South Sea Bubble 📜 Britain’s South Sea Company promised massive profits trading with South America (but barely did any business). Politicians and aristocrats pumped the stock price. Collapsed spectacularly → ruined many fortunes (including Isaac Newton himself: "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men.") Mini Nerd Tip: "If a bubble needs government help to stay alive, it's already dying." 🧠 Section 3: 1929 — Wall Street Crash 🏛️ Roaring 20s: endless optimism, cheap margin loans, "stocks only go up!" 1929: Stock market crashed, triggering the Great Depression. People were buying stocks with 10% down and gambling recklessly. Mini Nerd Tip: "When leverage is everywhere, the smallest panic causes waterfalls." 🧠 Section 4: 2000 — Dotcom Bubble 💻 Everyone thought the internet would change everything (it did — but slower and differently). Companies with no profits were valued in billions. "Eyeballs" were treated as real revenue. NASDAQ lost 78% from top to bottom. Mini Nerd Tip: "Innovation creates real value... but hype inflates fake value faster." 🧠 Section 5: 2008 — Housing Bubble 🏡 Banks handed out mortgages to anyone. Financial engineering (CDOs, synthetic MBS) created the illusion of safety. US housing prices collapsed → global financial crisis. "Too Big to Fail" became the famous phrase. Mini Nerd Tip: "If everyone is getting rich easily, someone is lying or blind." 🧠 Section 6: 2017/2021 — Crypto & Meme Stocks 🚀 Gamestop, Dogecoin, NFTs, Shiba Inu — the wildest "everyone’s a genius" market since the 1920s. Social media + free apps = amplified bubble speed. Massive rises, insane collapses. Mini Nerd Tip: "Technology changes, human emotion doesn’t." 🧠 Final Section: Why Bubbles Will Never End Greed, fear, and FOMO are timeless. Every era dresses up bubbles in new clothes (flowers, sea companies, internet, crypto). Smart traders understand this pattern — and use it to survive and thrive. "**Bubbles don't pop because of bad assets. They pop because confidence disappears put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd courtesy of : @TradingView
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDEducation
by currencynerd
Mastering Order Blocks: How to Trade Like Smart MoneyIntroduction Order Blocks (OBs) are one of the most critical concepts in Smart Money trading. They represent areas where institutional traders have entered the market with significant volume, typically leading to strong price movements. Identifying and trading Order Blocks gives traders an edge by aligning with the footprints of Smart Money. What is an Order Block? An Order Block is the last bearish candle before a bullish move for bullish OBs, or the last bullish candle before a bearish move for bearish OBs. These candles represent areas where institutions accumulated or distributed large positions, leading to a market shift. Types of Order Blocks A Bullish Order Block appears at the end of a downtrend or during a retracement just before the price moves sharply upward. It is typically represented by the last bearish candle prior to an impulsive bullish move. Price will often return to this level to mitigate institutional orders before continuing upward. A Bearish Order Block, in contrast, forms at the end of an uptrend or retracement where price begins a downward reversal. It is characterized by the last bullish candle before a strong bearish move. Price tends to revisit this level to mitigate before continuing lower. How to Identify a Valid Order Block The key to identifying a valid Order Block is first observing a strong impulsive move, also known as displacement, that follows the OB candle. The move must also result in a break of market structure or a significant shift in direction. Order Blocks that produce Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) or Market Structure Shifts (MSS) tend to be more reliable. Another important sign is when price returns to the OB for mitigation, offering a potential entry. Entry Model Using Order Blocks After locating a valid OB, the next step is to wait for price to return to this area. The ideal entry happens within the OB body or near its 50% level. For extra confirmation, look for a Market Structure Shift or Break of Structure on a lower timeframe. Entries are more powerful when combined with additional elements like Fair Value Gaps, liquidity grabs, or SMT Divergences. The stop-loss should be placed just beyond the OB’s high or low, depending on the direction of the trade. Refinement Techniques To increase precision, higher timeframe OBs can be refined by zooming into lower timeframes like the 1M or 5M chart. Within a broad OB zone, identify internal market structure, displacement candles, or embedded FVGs to determine a more precise entry point. One effective refinement is the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE), which is often found at the 50% level of the Order Block. Order Blocks vs. Supply and Demand Zones While they may seem similar, Order Blocks are more narrowly defined and specifically related to institutional order flow. Supply and Demand zones are broader and typically drawn around areas of price reaction, but OBs are derived from the final institutional candle before a large move and are often confirmed by structure shifts or displacement. This makes OBs more precise and actionable in the context of Smart Money concepts. Target Setting from Order Blocks Targets after entering from an OB should align with liquidity objectives. Common targets include internal liquidity like equal highs or lows, or consolidation zones just beyond the OB. External liquidity targets such as previous major swing highs or lows are also ideal, especially when they align with imbalances or Fair Value Gaps. It's important to adjust targets based on the current market structure and trading session. Common Mistakes to Avoid A frequent mistake is treating any candle before a move as an OB without verifying key signals like displacement or a Break of Structure. Entering without other confirmations, such as an MSS or liquidity sweep, can lead to poor trades. Another common error is placing the stop-loss too tightly within the OB, instead of just beyond it, increasing the chance of premature stop-outs. Traders should also avoid executing OB trades during low-liquidity sessions where price action can be unpredictable and wicky. Final Thoughts Order Blocks are foundational to Smart Money trading. They allow you to enter where institutions have placed large positions and offer clear invalidation and entry logic. With practice, you can identify high-quality OBs and combine them with other concepts like FVGs, MSS, and SMT for powerful, precise trades. Practice on different timeframes and assets, and always look for clean displacement and structure confirmation. Mastering OBs is a big step toward becoming a consistently profitable trader. Trust the Blocks. Trade with Intention.
Education
by Louigi_24
104
Breadbasket Basics: Trading Wheat Futures🟡 1. Introduction Wheat may be a breakfast-table staple, but for traders, it’s a globally sensitive asset — a commodity that reacts to geopolitics, climate patterns, and shifting demand from dozens of countries. Despite its critical role in food security and its status as one of the most traded agricultural commodities, wheat is often overlooked by traders who focus on corn or soybeans. Yet wheat offers a unique combination of liquidity, volatility, and macro sensitivity that makes it highly attractive for both hedgers and speculators. If you’re new to trading wheat, this guide gives you a solid foundation: how the wheat market works, who the key players are, and what makes wheat such a dynamic futures product. 🌍 2. Types of Wheat and Where It Grows One of the first things traders need to understand is that wheat is not a single, uniform product. It’s a diverse group of grain types, each with its own characteristics, end uses, and pricing dynamics. The major classes of wheat include: Hard Red Winter (HRW): High-protein wheat grown in the central U.S. — used in bread and baking. Soft Red Winter (SRW): Lower protein, used for pastries and crackers. Hard Red Spring (HRS): Grown in the Northern Plains; prized for high gluten content. Durum Wheat: Used for pasta, grown mainly in North Dakota and Canada. White Wheat: Grown in the Pacific Northwest; used for noodles and cereals. Each class responds differently to weather, demand, and regional risks — giving traders multiple ways to diversify or hedge. Major global producers include: United States Russia Canada Ukraine European Union Australia India These regions experience different planting and harvesting calendars — and their weather cycles are often out of sync. This creates trading opportunities year-round. 🛠️ 3. CME Group Wheat Contracts Wheat futures are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), part of the CME Group. Here are the two key contracts: o Standard Wheat Ticker: ZW Size = 5,000 bushels Tick = 0.0025 = $12.50 Margin = ~$1,750 o Micro Wheat Ticker: MZW Size = 500 bushels Tick = 0.0050 = $2.50 Margin = ~$175 Keep in mind that margins are subject to change — always confirm with your broker. Micro contracts are ideal for scaling in/out of trades or learning market structure without large capital risk. 📅 4. Wheat’s Seasonality and Supply Chain Unlike corn or soybeans, wheat is planted and harvested across multiple seasons depending on the variety and geography. In the U.S., winter wheat (HRW and SRW) is planted in the fall (September–November) and harvested in early summer (May–July). Spring wheat (HRS) is planted in spring (April–May) and harvested late summer. Globally, things get even more staggered: Australia’s wheat is harvested in November–December Ukraine and Russia harvest in June–August Argentina’s crop comes off the fields in December–January This scattered global schedule means news headlines about one country’s weather or war (think Ukraine in 2022) can quickly shift sentiment across the entire futures curve. 📈 5. Who Trades Wheat and Why Wheat is traded by a wide range of participants — each with their own objectives and strategies. Understanding their behavior can give you an edge in anticipating market moves. Commercial hedgers: Farmers lock in prices to protect against adverse weather or market crashes. Grain elevators and exporters use futures to manage inventory risk. Flour mills hedge their input costs to protect profit margins. Speculators: Hedge funds and CTAs trade wheat based on global macro trends, weather anomalies, or technical setups. Retail traders increasingly use micro contracts to gain exposure to agricultural markets with lower capital risk. Spread traders bet on pricing differences between wheat classes or harvest years. 🔍 For retail traders especially, micro contracts like XW open the door to professional markets without oversized exposure. 🧠 6. What Makes Wheat Unique in Futures Markets Wheat is often considered the most geopolitically sensitive of the major grains. Here’s why: Price can spike fast — even on rumor alone (e.g., export bans or missile strikes near ports). Production risks are global — the market reacts not just to the U.S. crop, but to conditions in Russia, Ukraine, and Australia. Storage and quality matter — protein levels and moisture content affect milling demand. Unlike corn, wheat doesn’t have a single dominant industrial use (like ethanol). This means food demand is king, and food security often drives policy decisions that affect futures pricing. 📌 7. Summary / Takeaway Wheat may not get as much media attention as corn or soybeans, but it’s a deeply important — and deeply tradable — market. Its global footprint, class differences, and sensitivity to weather and politics make it a must-know for serious agricultural futures traders. Whether you're just starting out or looking to diversify your trading playbook, understanding wheat is an essential step. Learn its rhythms, follow its news, and respect the fact that every crop cycle brings a new story to the market. 🧭 This article is part of an ongoing educational series exploring futures trading in agricultural commodities. 📅 Watch for the next release: “Soybeans: The Global Protein Powerhouse.” When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.sweetlogin.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZW1!Education
by traddictiv
PineScript v6: Conditional Expressions from Libraries I thought it appropriate to make some quick notes on calling conditional expressions from PineScript v6 libraries, seeing as I have recently updated all of my libraries to v6 and most of my function exports output booleans or values that are ultimately derived from other functions that output booleans. When calling functions in v6 that output booleans or values derived from other functions that output booleans, it is best practice to first declare the function return globally before you use said output as input for anything else. For example, instead of calling my swing low and uptrend functions (which both return booleans) as part of a broader conditional expression: //@version=6 indicator('Example Conditional Expression 1') import theEccentricTrader/PubLibSwing/3 as sw import theEccentricTrader/PubLibTrend/2 as tr uptrend = sw.sl() and tr.ut() plotshape(uptrend) I would first declare the function returns as global variables and then call the broader conditional expression using said variables: //@version=6 indicator('Example Conditional Expression 2') import theEccentricTrader/PubLibSwing/3 as sw import theEccentricTrader/PubLibTrend/2 as tr sl = sw.sl() ut = tr.ut() uptrend = sl and ut plotshape(uptrend) This demonstrates different behaviour from v5, where you could combine functions that output booleans in conditional expressions without error or warning. The same also applies to functions that output values derived from other functions that output booleans. In the example below, my swing low price and bar index functions output float and integer values, respectively, but these values are derived from the swing low function, which is a function that returns a boolean. So these return values should also be first declared globally for later use, just like the swing low and uptrend functions: //@version=6 indicator('Example Conditional Expression 3', overlay = true) import theEccentricTrader/PubLibSwing/3 as sw import theEccentricTrader/PubLibTrend/2 as tr sl = sw.sl() ut = tr.ut() slp_0 = sw.slp(0) slpbi_0 = sw.slpbi(0) slp_1 = sw.slp(1) slpbi_1 = sw.slpbi(1) if sl and ut line.new(slpbi_1, slp_1, slpbi_0, slp_0, color = color.green)
OANDA:UK100GBPEducation
by theEccentricTrader
Ratio Charts in TradingView and IAAbove you can see the Bitcoin to Ethereum ratio chart. Ratio analysis between two or more symbols is a critical method for comparing the strength and weakness of assets relative to each other. TradingView offers basic capabilities for this task, but with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and custom scripts, much more advanced and creative analyses can be conducted. Here are some practical ideas: 1. Creating Conditional Ratio Scripts 2. Comparing Relative Averages and Issuing Smart Signals 3. Calculating Composite Ratios of Multiple Assets 4. Smart Alerts Based on Price Pattern Breakouts For more information, search Google for "How to Use Ratio Charts in TradingView: A Hidden Gem for Traders."
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by mostafadehghan321
2
Why Being Delusional Might Be Your Greatest Asset in TradingIf you think you’re going to make a full-time living trading financial markets you’re completely delusional!... and that's a good thing. It was 1997, and two friends—let’s call them Reed and Marc—thought it would be fun to have a movie night and rent Apollo 13 from their local Blockbuster store. For those of you who might need some context, Blockbuster was a video rental store where you’d go to rent a movie you’d like to watch. This was shortly after discovering fire and the wheel, and it was revolutionary. At its peak, Blockbuster was worth approximately $5 billion and had over 80,000 employees across 9000 stores worldwide. Their business model was very simple, and although they generated revenue in various ways, their core revenue was generated through a combination of rental fees, video sales and late fees. You see, it just so happened that our two friends who thought it would be fun to rent Apollo 13, chill at home, and eat popcorn would essentially have to pay the $40 late fee, and they were admittedly, not too happy about that. As they sat in frustration, one of them came up with the idea to start a website and rent movies to people without charging a late fee. Instead people would just pay a monthly subscription of around $19.95 per month and they could rent up to three movies of their choosing and keep it for as long as they wanted, no rental fee, no video sales, no late fees, just a monthly subscription of $19.95. If people wanted to rent a new set of DVD’s then all they’d need to do is return the DVD’s they’d initially rented and the new set was mailed to them within a day or two. Now it is important to mention that all this occurred toward the end of the third industrial revolution and the internet was not nearly as advanced as it is today. People would use a dial-up connection which only produced 56 kbps or slower. Streaming was near impossible unless you enjoyed watching a movie in three-minute increments before it loaded the next three minutes. Downloading a movie could take an entire day or even longer. It’s fair to say that our two friends Reed and Marc were throwing stones at giants, but they had very good aim. I’m sure you heard the story where a boy aimed at a giant's head and threw him with a stone. Turns out the boy won that fight, and ultimately claimed victory for his people, but I digress. You see Reed had a background in computer science and software development, and at the time he co-founded a software company called Pure Software. Marc had a background in marketing and product development. It’s safe to say that they made a very good team, but they were still going up against giants, they were challenging a system that was working with a system that was not even established yet. Essentially, they either had to be very confident or extremely delusional. Turns out they were both. They decided to brainstorm a few names for their little startup, everything from Kibble to TakeOne, and even DirectPix and none of it seemed to stick. Eventually, they decided to combine the words “internet” and “film” to make “Netflix”. Today Netflix is the most popular streaming platform, with its annual revenue peaking at 33.7 Billion back in 2023. I share this story with you because it really takes more than just experience, skill, and luck to take on giants, I would argue you need to have a healthy amount of delusion as well. So, if you think you're going to make a full-time living trading financial markets, you're completely delusional—and that might be the best thing going for you. Because the truth is, every breakthrough, every disruption, every world-changing idea begins with someone who dares to believe in something that doesn’t quite make sense to the rest of the world—yet. Reed and Marc didn’t just challenge a system; they challenged what was possible at the time. They bet on a future that didn’t exist—on a slower internet, a skeptical audience, and an unproven model. What looked like delusion was a vision in disguise. In trading, as in business and life, it’s not the most logical or the most experienced who wins—it’s often those who are bold enough to stay in the game when everyone else calls it crazy. You’ll need skill, yes. Strategy, of course. But you’ll also need the unreasonable belief that you can beat the odds, learn the rules, and then rewrite them entirely. So go ahead—be delusional. Just make sure you’ve got the grit, the patience, and the aim to back it up. What “giant” are you bold enough to challenge next?
Education
by DeanMuller
This is how to read the chart using Weis Wave with Speed IndexReading the chart: 1. We have bottom down and we pull back with high up volume waves, approaching the Fib area. Notice how SI is increasing on the up waves as we are reaching Fib from 13.3 to 15.7 to 18.4 and last not able to break previous resistance at 20.4. This means sellers are absorbing all buy orders of people entering long thinking that the trend will continue. 2. Notice the up volume wave with SI 20.4 and respective pip move right above it which is small compared to the amount of volume used - This is absorption. 3. The highest PVR bar at the beginning of the down wave - more sellers 4. Entry Short on the Plutus Short signal Notice all the Short signals following confirming the continuation of the down move! Simple as that, if you are able to read the chart and not just following signals from an indicator. Enjoy!
Education
by TradeTheVolumeWaves
1
Understanding Liquidity: Where Big Players Hunt Stops Understanding Liquidity: Where Big Players Hunt Stops Ever wondered why price suddenly spikes through your stop-loss and reverses moments later? That’s not a coincidence—it’s liquidity at play. This article will teach you how liquidity zones work, why stop hunts happen, and how to avoid getting trapped like the crowd. 🔵 What Is Liquidity in Trading? Liquidity refers to how easily an asset can be bought or sold without drastically affecting its price. But in practical trading, liquidity is more than just volume—it’s where traders *place* their money. Large players—institutions, market makers, or big accounts—need liquidity to fill orders. They target areas where many retail stop-losses or pending orders are stacked. These areas are often just above resistance or below support—classic stop-loss zones. To move large positions without slippage, smart money uses stop hunts to trigger retail orders and create the liquidity they need. 🔵 Where Do Liquidity Zones Form? Liquidity often builds up in predictable areas: Above resistance: Where shorts place stop-losses. Below support: Where longs place stop-losses. Swing highs/lows: Obvious turning points everyone sees. Round numbers: e.g., 1000, 10,000, 50,000. Breakout zones: Where breakout traders place entries or stops. These zones act like magnets. When price approaches them, it accelerates—seeking the liquidity pool behind the level. 🔵 What Is a Stop Hunt? A stop hunt happens when price moves just far enough to trigger stop-losses before reversing. This isn’t market noise—it’s an intentional move by big players to: Trigger a flood of stop orders (buy or sell). Fill their own large positions using that liquidity. Reverse price back to fair value or the prior trend. Example: Price breaks above resistance → stops get hit → institutions sell into that liquidity → price drops sharply. 🔵 Signs You’re in a Liquidity Grab Look for these clues: Fast spike beyond key levels followed by rejection. Wick-heavy candles near highs/lows. Price touches a level, then sharply reverses. High volume on failed breakouts or fakeouts. These are signs of a liquidity event—not a real breakout. 🔵 How to Trade Around Liquidity Zones You can use liquidity traps to your advantage instead of becoming their victim. Avoid obvious stops: Don’t place stops directly below support or above resistance. Instead, use ATR-based or structure-based stops. Wait for confirmation: Don’t chase breakouts. Let price break, reject, then re-enter inside the range. Watch for wick rejections: If price quickly returns after a level is breached, it's often a trap. Use higher timeframe confluence: Liquidity grabs are more powerful when they align with HTF reversals or zones. 🔵 Real Example: Liquidity Sweep Before Reversal In this chart, we see a textbook liquidity grab: Price breaks below support. Longs get stopped out. Candle prints a long wick. Market reverses into an uptrend. This is where smart traders enter— after the trap is set, not during. 🔵 Final Thoughts Liquidity is the invisible hand of the market. Stop hunts aren’t personal—they’re structural. Big players simply go where the orders are. As retail traders, the best thing we can do is: Understand where traps are set. Avoid being part of the crowd. Trade the reaction, not the initial breakout. By thinking like the smart money, you can stop getting hunted—and start hunting for better trades.
Education
by BigBeluga
37
Trading Performance Review🎯 April 4 – May 3 | Trading Performance Review Over the past 30 days, I executed 146 trades with a data-driven strategy focused on risk-adjusted returns and quantitative consistency. 🔍 Performance Metrics: Total Trades: 146 Win Rate: 70.55% Winning Trades: 103 Losing Trades: 43 Profitable Days: 22 / 30 No-Trade Days: 2 Winning vs Losing Trade Ratio: ✅ Winning Trades: 70.5% ❌ Losing Trades: 29.5% Daily Outcome Distribution: 🟢 Profitable Days: 73.3% 🔴 Loss Days: 20% ⚪ No Trade: 6.7% 📈 This outcome reflects a strategy rooted in structured risk management, discipline, and probability-based execution — not impulsive decisions. Each trade was placed with purpose, not emotion. With every data point, my trading edge sharpens. The goal remains the same: consistent performance through controlled risk and strategic action. Progress is not measured by the number of trades, but by the quality of each decision.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Nurlan_PT
How to Trade Gold with AI-Powered Algos in 2025📊 How to Trade Gold with AI-Powered Algos in 2025 A practical action plan for serious gold traders 🔍 1. Know Why Gold Requires Custom Algo Tactics Gold is volatile, news-sensitive, and driven by macro events like Fed policy, geopolitics, and inflation. Generic stock or crypto bots fail here — gold needs precise, event-aware automation. 🧠 2. Use AI-Powered Bots Trained for Gold Volatility Deploy bots that adapt to real-time data like CPI releases, bond yields, and geopolitical headlines. Use machine learning models that detect gold breakouts, consolidations, and safe-haven flows. Top AI algos for gold traders: Multiple systems based on MT4/MT5 Fully-automated, AI-based gold bot with breakout detection, precision entries, and built-in risk control. ⚙️ 3. Build or Choose the Right Algo Strategy for Gold Trend-Following: Use 21/50 EMA crosses on H1 and H4 Mean Reversion: Bollinger Band fades in range-bound sessions Breakout Algos: Trigger trades on CPI or FOMC event volatility Volume-Based AI: Analyze volume spikes vs. historical patterns 🧪 4. Backtest Gold-Specific Models Always test your bot using historical gold data, especially during NFP weeks, Fed meetings, and geopolitical escalations. Use data from 2018 to 2024 for high-volatility periods. Tools: TradingView for Pine Script testing, MetaTrader 5 for EA deployment 🛡️ 5. Control Risk with Gold-Specific Parameters Max drawdown: Keep under 15 percent Stop-loss: Always use hard stops (not just trailing) Position sizing: 0.5 to 1 percent of capital per trade Use volatility filters: Avoid entries during thin liquidity hours 🔄 6. Automate Monitoring and Adaptation Run multiple bots for breakout, momentum, and reversal setups Use dashboards to track gold-specific metrics like VIX, USDX, DXY, and 10Y Treasury yields Integrate AI that adjusts parameters after major data releases 🚀 7. Prepare for 2025 Market Structure Gold is increasingly driven by Central bank digital currency rollouts USD de-dollarization risks Global stagflation or recession themes DeFi and tokenized gold products Your algo must factor in these macro narratives using real-time data feeds 📌 Gold Algo Trading Success Plan 2025 Use AI bots built for gold volatility Trade high-probability breakouts post-news Backtest with gold-specific macro filters Maintain strict risk limits with max 15 percent drawdown Monitor global news and macro data with bot triggers Continuously optimize and adapt Gold is not just a commodity — it’s a signal of global risk. Automate smartly, manage risk tightly, and use AI to stay one move ahead.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ProjectSyndicate
28
How to Enter Trades the RIGHT Way!In this video, we're tackling an important question from our community member who's been crushing it in paper trading but faces the common challenge of entering trades blindly based on alerts, fearing they'll miss out otherwise. We'll discuss: Why blindly following signals can hurt your long-term success The power of context in market structure: Why waiting for price to hit key support/resistance levels drastically improves your entries A practical approach to manage FOMO: How scaling into trades can balance quick reaction times with better entries and tighter stops Real examples of good vs. rushed entries, highlighting the impact on your risk-to-reward
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by WallSt007
This daily pattern can change your view on price!Dear Community, How many patterns do you know? <5? <20? >20? How many of them actually work with GREAT accuracy? Patterns are something that we often use in trying to predict the markets….BUT I dear to say pattern alone won’t work? THE PATTERN NEED A FRAMEWORK! let’s discuss this “pattern” highlighted on your screen. Why is the candle after that “doji “ higher? Often you try to “call tops” in the market place. And after seeing this “doji”…. WE SELL RIGHT? if the maker is going up why do we try and call a top? Why do we try and not “follow the trend?” On your daily chart examine this. IF THE MARKET IF BULLISH AND I SEE A DOJI! Study the candle that formed just after. YOU WILL BE AMAZED BY THE FINDINGS 😃. No I will not share the stats. If an “homework” for your own development. Let’s discuss this further in the comments below.
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by MarketsByLee_
Trading Without Goals Is Just Gambling With StructureA lot of traders talk about discipline. But few realize that discipline has to be anchored to something. It doesn’t work in a vacuum. Without a clear reason to stay focused, most people eventually fall back into overtrading, revenge trading, or breaking their own rules. That “something” is your personal set of financial goals. If you’re trading without a list of well-defined, written goals—short term and long term—you’re not building a system. You’re improvising. And over time, the market will punish improvisation. Goals Create the Structure That Risk Management Lives In It’s common to hear that risk management is the key to long-term success in Forex. That’s true. But risk management doesn’t exist in isolation. You can’t determine how much to risk per trade if you don’t know what you’re aiming for in the big picture. When your trading plan is connected to real financial targets—like building a retirement fund, generating side income, or compounding over years, you stop treating each trade like a lottery ticket. Your lot size changes. Your trade frequency changes. Your psychology changes. Clarity Reduces Emotion One of the biggest causes of emotional trading is uncertainty. When you’re not clear on where you're going or why you’re even in a trade, the smallest loss can shake your confidence. A win might tempt you to increase your size. A string of losses might tempt you to change systems or walk away completely. But when you’re trading with a purpose, decisions become less reactive. You have a framework to evaluate whether something aligns with your objectives. And that makes it easier to say no to setups that don’t fit, or to walk away from the screen when nothing’s there. Write Your Goals Down—In Detail If your goals aren’t written, they don’t exist. And “make money” is not a goal. It’s a wish. Good goals are specific, time-based, and measurable. For example: Grow a $1,000 account to $1,500 over 6 months by risking 1% per trade Extract 4% per month on average while maintaining a max drawdown of 10% Build a track record of 100 trades with full journal documentation and risk control Once written, these goals form the backbone of your trading plan. They influence your risk-per-trade, your system choice, and how often you trade. They also give you a benchmark. You’ll know if you’re making progress or just going in circles. Final Thought: Know What You’re Playing For Too many traders operate without direction. They chase results, compare themselves to others, and burn out. It doesn’t have to be this way. Start with the end in mind. Know why you’re trading. Set real goals. And let those goals drive your decisions, your risk management, and your daily focus. Discipline becomes easier when you have something worth being disciplined for. I have been for 2.5 years on Demo, and will not move from there until I achieve the targets that I have set. Achieving those targets on Demo does mean I will achieve them on live trading. On the other hand, not achieving them on a Demo account mean that the only thing I will be able to achieve on a live account is blow the account away.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
Learn KEY PRINCIPLES of Technical Analysis in Gold Forex Trading In the today's article, we will discuss the absolute basics of trading - 3 key principles of technical analysis in Forex & Gold Trading. 1️⃣History Repeats History tends to repeat itself in the Forex market. Certain trends are cyclical and may reemerge in a predictable manner, certain key levels are respected again and again over time. Take a look at the example: Silver perfectly respected a historical horizontal resistance in 2011 that was respected in 1980 already. Moreover, the price action before and after the tests of the underlined zone were absolutely identical. 2️⃣Priced In All relevant information about a currency pair: economical and political events, rumors, and facts; is already reflected in a price. When the FED increased the rate 26th of July by 25 bp, EURUSD bounced instead of falling. Before the rate hike, the market was going down on EXPECTATIONS of a rate hike. The release of the news was already price in. 3️⃣Pattern DO Work Some specific price models can be applied for predicting the future price movements. Technicians strongly believe that certain formations - being applied and interpreted properly, can give the edge on the market. Depending on the trading style, different categories of patterns exist: harmonic patterns, price action patterns, wave patterns, candlestick patterns... Above, I have listed various price action patterns that are applied by many traders and investors as the main tool for analyzing the financial markets. If you believe in these 3 principles, you are an inborn technician! Study technical analysis and learn to apply these principles to make money in trading. b]❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
11
The Golden Grain: Trading Corn in Global Markets🟡 1. Introduction Corn isn’t just something you eat off the cob at a summer barbecue — it’s one of the most widely traded agricultural commodities in the world. Behind every kernel lies a powerful story of food security, global trade, biofuels, and speculative capital. Whether you’re a farmer managing risk, a trader chasing macro trends, or simply curious about how weather affects global prices, corn futures sit at the crossroads of agriculture and finance. In this article, we’ll explore what makes corn a global economic driver, how it behaves as a futures product, and what traders need to know to approach the corn market intelligently. 🌎 2. Where Corn Grows: Global Powerhouses Corn is cultivated on every continent except Antarctica, but a handful of countries dominate production and exports. United States – By far the largest producer and exporter. The “Corn Belt” — spanning Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, and parts of Ohio and Missouri — produces the majority of U.S. corn. U.S. exports also set global benchmarks for pricing. Brazil & Argentina – These two South American powerhouses are crucial to the global corn supply, especially during the Northern Hemisphere’s off-season. China – Though a top producer, China consumes most of its own supply and has become a key importer during deficit years. Corn is typically planted in the U.S. between late April and early June and harvested from September through November. In Brazil, two crops per year are common — including the important safrinha (second crop), harvested mid-year. Understanding where and when corn is grown is vital. Weather disruptions in any of these regions can ripple through the futures market within hours — or even minutes. 💹 3. Corn as a Futures Market Power Player Corn is one of the most liquid agricultural futures markets in the world, traded primarily on the CME Group’s CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade). It attracts a diverse set of participants: Producers and Commercials: Farmers, ethanol refiners, and food manufacturers use corn futures to hedge price risk. Speculators and Funds: Hedge funds and retail traders speculate on corn price direction, volatility, and seasonal patterns. Arbitrageurs and Spreads: Traders bet on relative price differences between contracts (e.g., old crop vs. new crop spreads). The deep liquidity and relatively low tick size make corn accessible, but its price is highly sensitive to weather, government reports (like WASDE), and international trade policies. 🏗️ 4. CME Group Corn Futures: What You Can Trade The CME Group offers both standard and micro-sized contracts for corn. Here’s a quick overview: o Standard Corn Ticker: ZC Size = 5,000 bushels Tick = 0.0025 = $12.50 Margin = ~$1,050 o Micro Corn Ticker: XC Size = 1,000 bushels Tick = 0.0050 = $2.50 Margin = ~$105 ⚠️ Always confirm margin requirements with your broker. They change with market volatility and exchange updates. The availability of micro corn contracts has opened the door for smaller traders to manage risk or test strategies without over-leveraging. 📊 5. Historical Price Behavior & Seasonality Corn is deeply seasonal — and so is its price action. During planting season (April–May), traders watch weekly USDA crop progress reports and early weather forecasts like hawks. A wet spring can delay planting, leading to tighter supply expectations and early price spikes. Then comes pollination (July) — the most critical stage. This is when heatwaves or drought can do serious damage to yield potential. If temperatures are unusually high or rainfall is scarce during this window, markets often react with urgency, bidding up futures prices in anticipation of reduced output. By harvest (September–November), prices often stabilize — especially if production matches expectations. But early frost, wind storms, or excessive rain during harvest can still trigger sharp volatility. Many experienced traders overlay weather models, soil moisture maps, and historical USDA data to anticipate season-driven price shifts. Even international factors play a role. For example, when Brazil’s safrinha crop suffers a drought, global corn supply tightens — impacting CME prices even though the crop is thousands of miles away. 🧠 6. What Every New Trader Should Know If you’re new to corn trading, here are some key principles: Watch the Weather: It’s not optional. Daily forecasts, drought monitors, and precipitation anomalies can move markets. NOAA, Open-Meteo, and private ag weather services are your friends. Know the Reports: The WASDE report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), USDA Crop Progress, and Prospective Plantings reports can shake up pricing more than you might expect — even if changes seem small. Mind the Time of Year: Seasonality affects liquidity, volatility, and trader behavior. March–August tends to be the most active period. Understand Global Demand: The U.S. exports a huge portion of its crop — with China, Mexico, and Japan as major buyers. A tariff tweak or surprise Chinese cancellation can cause wild price swings. 🛠️ Good corn trading is 50% strategy, 50% meteorology. 🧭 This article is part of a broader educational series exploring the relationship between agricultural commodities and weather patterns. In the upcoming pieces, we’ll dive deeper into how temperature and precipitation affect corn, wheat, and soybeans — with real data, charts, and trading insights. 📅 Watch for the next release: “Breadbasket Basics: Trading Wheat Futures.” When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.sweetlogin.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
The VWAP Blueprint: Your Gateway to Smart Money MovesVWAP: Volume Weighted Average Price What is VWAP? VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price. It’s a trading benchmark that gives the average price an asset has traded at throughout the day, weighted by volume. This makes it more accurate than a simple moving average, especially for intraday analysis. Unlike regular moving averages that treat every price equally, VWAP emphasizes price levels where heavier trading occurred, providing a realistic snapshot of the true average market price institutions and algorithms are interacting with. The VWAP Bounce + Rejection Entry Strategy helps you enter trades at optimal zones of value using the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP). This dynamic line acts as a magnet for price and often becomes a bounce zone when volume aligns. Instead of guessing support or resistance levels, this strategy lets you use VWAP as a real- time value guide, waiting for price to pull into it, show rejection, and bounce away with momentum. How VWAP Works The VWAP is calculated cumulatively from the market open: VWAP = (Cumulative Price × Volume) / Cumulative Volume With each tick or candle: Multiply the price by volume. Add it to the previous cumulative total. Divide by the total volume so far. This means VWAP resets daily and builds throughout the session, offering real-time insight Into what traders are willing to pay based on volume-weighted interest. Why VWAP Matters When price pulls back into VWAP and bounces with rejection, it signals that traders are defending value. Smart money often uses VWAP as a tool for entries or exits. When you align with that behavior and combine it with a clean rejection candle, you get a high-probability trade setup that’s based on logic and flow, not emotion. 1. Institutional Benchmark Institutions and smart money often aim to buy below VWAP (to secure a better-than-average price) and sell above VWAP. So the line often acts as a magnet or barrier where decisions cluster. 2. Intraday Bias Gauge Price above VWAP: Buyers dominate; bullish bias. Price below VWAP: Sellers control; bearish bias. 3. Support/Resistance & Mean Reversion VWAP behaves like a dynamic equilibrium level. Price frequently: Pulls back to VWAP during trends Here's a clear down trend 50 and 200 ma cross over. Await a pull back to trend or ma for continuation. Reverts to VWAP in consolidations Finds support/resistance at or around VWAP How to Use VWAP in Trading 1. Trend Confirmation Use VWAP as a bias filter: if price is cleanly above, favor longs if below, favor shorts. Combine it with higher highs/lows (or lower highs/lows) to validate trend strength. 2. Entry Opportunities In an uptrend: look for pullbacks to VWAP as a buy zone In a downtrend: look for retests of VWAP as a short opportunity. 3. Mean Reversion Strategy If price is far extended from VWAP, and volume shows divergence or exhaustion, consider fading the move with a target toward VWAP (especially in range-bound sessions). 4. Anchored VWAP You can anchor VWAP to specific candles, like a major high, low, or news release, to gauge value zones within a custom context. Best Timeframes for VWAP Intraday trading (1min to 15min): Ideal for scalpers and day traders. VWAP resets daily it’s not designed for swing trading unless you're using anchored VWAP. Pro Tips Don’t use VWAP in isolation pair it with: Market structure (HH/LL, BOS/CHoCH) Volume spikes or divergence Liquidity zones (order blocks, FVGs, imbalance) Session opens (London/NY open confluence) Use VWAP for confluence with other tools, not as a single trigger. VWAP is more than just a line it's a window into the heartbeat of the market. It shows where real money is positioned and whether you’re trading with or against that flow. Used with structure and context, VWAP becomes a weapon for precision entries, smart risk, and clean execution. Vwap entry types 1. VWAP Bounce (Mean Reversion Entry) Best for: Range-bound or early in the session. Entry: Price pulls back to VWAP and shows signs of rejection (e.g., pin bar, engulfing candle). Confirmation: Look for confluence with support/resistance, order blocks, or volume spikes. Stop: Below the recent swing low (if long). Target: Prior high or key level. 2. VWAP Break and Retest (Trend Continuation) Best for: Trending markets. Entry: Price breaks above VWAP with momentum and retests it from the other side. Confirmation: Lower time frame bullish structure, bullish candle on retest. Stop: Below VWAP or structure low. Target: pivot levels or structure high, fib levels. 3. VWAP Reclaim (Reversal Entry) Best for: Capturing a shift in momentum. Entry: Price moves below VWAP, then reclaims it (closes back above with strength). Confirmation: Break of market structure + volume surge Stop: Below reclaim candle. Target: Range high or key fib levels. 4. VWAP Confluence with Other Indicators Combine with: Moving Averages: e.g., 9, 50 and 200 SMA OR EMA Fibonacci retracement levels Order blocks / Liquidity zones Pivot points Use VWAP as a dynamic support/resistance level and enter when multiple signals align. Vwap examples
Education
by samstoobad
Mastering chart patterns - How to use them in trading!Chart patterns are visual formations created by the price movements of a financial asset—like a stock, currency, or cryptocurrency, on a price chart. Traders use these patterns in technical analysis to predict future market direction based on historical behavior. The main chart patterns are the reversal and continuation patterns. ------------------------------- What will we discuss? - Bullish reversal patterns - Bearish reversal patterns - Bullish continuation patterns - Bearish continuation patterns ------------------------------- Bullish reversal patterns: Double bottom A double bottom in trading is a bullish reversal pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend and the beginning of an uptrend. It forms when the price of an asset falls to a low, bounces back up, then drops again to roughly the same low before rising once more. This creates a "W" shape on the chart. How to trade it: Before entering a trade, wait for the price to break back above the neckline with strong volume, as this indicates a potential bullish reversal. Once the breakout is confirmed, look for an entry on the pullback to the neckline. Inverted head and shoulders An inverted head and shoulders is a bullish reversal pattern that typically forms after a downtrend and signals a possible shift to an uptrend. It consists of three parts: * The left shoulder, where the price makes a low and then bounces. * The head, which is a deeper low followed by another bounce. * The right shoulder, a higher low similar in level to the left shoulder. How to trade it: Before entering a trade, wait for the price to break above the neckline with strong volume, as this confirms the pattern and signals a potential upward move. After the breakout, it's important to wait for a retest of the neckline to look for an entry. Traders typically place a stop-loss just below the right shoulder to manage risk. Falling wedge A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern that often signals a potential reversal or continuation of an uptrend, depending on where it forms in a price trend. It appears when the price is moving lower but within a narrowing range, creating two downward-sloping, converging trendlines. Both the highs and lows are falling, but the lower highs are coming down faster than the lower lows, which shows that selling pressure is losing strength over time. How to trade it: Wait for the falling wedge to break above the downward trendline and for the price to reclaim the most recent lower high. A breakout alone isn’t always reliable, sometimes the price moves briefly above the trendline without making a higher high, resulting in a fake-out. To confirm the move, wait for a clear higher high and then look to enter on the retracement that follows. ------------------------------- Bearish reversal patterns Double top A double top is a bearish reversal pattern that signals a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. It forms when the price reaches a high, pulls back, then rallies again to the same or similar high but fails to break above it. This creates an "M" shape on the chart. The neckline is the support level at the low point between the two peaks. When the price breaks below this neckline with strong volume, it confirms the pattern and suggests that selling pressure is taking over. How to trade it:
Before entering a trade, wait for the price to break below the neckline with strong volume, as this indicates a potential bearish reversal. Once the breakout is confirmed, look for an entry on the pullback to the neckline. Head and shoulders A head and shoulders is a bearish reversal pattern that typically forms after an uptrend and signals a potential shift to a downtrend. It consists of three peaks: * The left shoulder, where the price rises and then falls. * The head, which is a higher peak followed by another decline. * The right shoulder, a lower high that is roughly equal in height to the left shoulder. How to trade it: Before entering a trade, wait for the price to break below the neckline with strong volume, as this confirms the pattern and signals a potential downside move, After the breakout, it’s important to wait for a retest of the neckline to look for an entry. Traders typically place a stop-loss just above the right shoulder to manage risk Rising wedge A rising wedge is a bearish chart pattern that often signals a potential reversal or continuation of an downtrend, depending on where it forms in a price trend. It appears when the price is moving higher but within a narrowing range, creating two upward-sloping, converging trendlines. Both the highs and lows are rising, but the highs are increasing at a faster rate than the lows. This suggests that buying pressure is weakening over time, and the market may be preparing for a downturn. How to trade it: Wait for the rising wedge to break below the upsloping trendline and for the price to reclaim the most recent high low. A breakout alone isn’t always reliable, sometimes the price moves briefly below the trendline without making a lower low, resulting in a fake-out. To confirm the move, wait for a clear lower low and then look to enter on the retracement that follows. ------------------------------- Bullish continuation patterns Bullflag A bull flag is a continuation pattern that signals the potential for a price to continue moving upward after a brief consolidation or pullback. It forms when the price experiences a strong upward move (the flagpole), followed by a period of consolidation or a slight downward movement (the flag). The flag typically slopes downward or moves sideways, and the consolidation phase usually occurs within two parallel trendlines, creating a rectangle or slight downward channel. How to trade it? Before entering a position, wait for the price to break above the downsloping trendline and establish a higher high. If the price doesn’t make a higher high, it could be a fake-out. Once a higher high is confirmed, look for an entry on the retracement. The target is typically the length of the flagpole projected upward from the breakout point. Bullish pennant A bullish pennant is a continuation pattern that indicates the potential for a price to continue its upward trend after a brief consolidation. It forms when a strong upward move (the flagpole) is followed by a period of consolidation, where the price moves within converging trendlines, creating a small symmetrical triangle or pennant shape. The consolidation typically shows lower highs and higher lows, and the pattern suggests that the market is taking a "breather" before continuing its upward momentum. How to trade it? Before entering a position, wait for the price to break above the downsloping trendline and establish a higher high. If the price doesn’t make a higher high, it could be a fake-out. Once a higher high is confirmed, look for an entry on the retracement. The target is typically the length of the flagpole projected upward form the breakout point. Ascending triangle An ascending triangle is a bullish continuation pattern that typically forms during an uptrend, signaling that the price is likely to continue moving higher. It is characterized by a horizontal resistance line at the top, formed by a series of peaks at roughly the same price level, and an ascending support line at the bottom, formed by higher lows. This creates a triangle shape, where the price is gradually compressing between the horizontal resistance and the rising support. How to trade it? Before entering a position, wait for the price to break above the horizontal resistance level with strong volume. Once the breakout occurs, look for an entry on the retracement back to this area. ------------------------------- Bearish continuation patterns Bearflag A bear flag is a bearish continuation pattern that suggests the price is likely to continue moving downward after a brief consolidation or upward pullback. It forms when there is a strong downward move (the flagpole), followed by a period of consolidation or slight upward movement (the flag). The flag typically slopes upward or moves sideways, and the consolidation occurs within two parallel trendlines, creating a rectangular or upward-sloping channel. This pattern shows that, despite the short-term pullback, the overall downtrend remains intact. How to trade it? Before entering a position, wait for the price to break below the upsloping trendline and establish a lower low. If the price doesn’t make a lower low, it could be a fake-out. Once a lower low is confirmed, look for an entry on the retracement. The target is typically the length of the flagpole projected downward for the breakout point. Bearish pennant A bearish pennant is a bearish continuation pattern that signals a potential continuation of a downtrend after a brief consolidation. It forms when there is a strong downward move (the flagpole), followed by a period of consolidation where the price moves within converging trendlines, creating a small symmetrical triangle or pennant shape. The consolidation typically shows lower highs and higher lows, indicating that the price is taking a pause before continuing its downward movement. How to trade it? Before entering a position, wait for the price to break below the upsloping trendline and establish a lower low. If the price doesn’t make a lower low, it could be a fake-out. Once a lower low is confirmed, look for an entry on the retracement. The target is typically the length of the flagpole projected downward for the breakout point. Descending triangle A descending triangle is a bearish continuation pattern that typically forms during a downtrend, indicating that the price is likely to continue moving lower after a period of consolidation. The pattern is characterized by a horizontal support line at the bottom, formed by a series of lows at approximately the same price level, and a descending resistance line at the top, formed by a series of lower highs. The price contracts between these two trendlines, creating a triangle shape with a downward-sloping upper boundary and a flat lower boundary. How to trade it? Before entering a position, wait for the price to break below the horizontal support level with strong volume. Once the breakout occurs, look for an entry on the retracement back to this area. ------------------------------- Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Education
by Youriverse
74
Understanding Moving Averages In TradingToday, we dive into a comprehensive guide on Moving Averages (MAs) — one of the most fundamental yet powerful tools in technical analysis. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, understanding how MAs work can help you better interpret market trends, identify potential entry and exit points, and smooth out price data for clearer decision-making. In this article, we’ll break down the different types of moving averages, how they’re calculated, when to use them, and common strategies that incorporate them into successful trading plans. 1️⃣ 1. What are Moving Averages? Moving averages (MAs) are statistical calculations used in technical analysis to smooth out price data and identify trends over a specific period. They help traders filter out short-term fluctuations and focus on the overall direction of an asset's price. 2️⃣ 2. Importance Moving averages (MAs) play a crucial role in technical analysis by helping traders identify trends, reduce noise, and make informed trading decisions. Here’s why they are important: Trend Identification: MAs help traders determine the overall direction of the market. Dynamic Support & Resistance: Traders watch key MAs (e.g., 50-day and 200-day) to anticipate price reactions. Trading Signals & Crossovers: Detects potential changes in trend direction. Golden Cross (Bullish): When a short-term MA (e.g., 50-day) crosses above a long-term MA (e.g., 200-day), signaling a potential uptrend. Death Cross (Bearish): When a short-term MA crosses below a long-term MA, indicating a possible downtrend. Momentum Confirmation: A steeply rising MA suggests strong bullish momentum, while a declining MA signals bearish strength. 3️⃣ 3. Moving Averages Types Simple Moving Average (SMA): Calculates the simple average of past prices. Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Prioritizes recent prices for faster response. Weighted Moving Average (WMA): Prioritizes recent prices for faster response. Hull Moving Average (HMA): Smooths trends while reducing lag effectively. Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): Averages data with less sensitivity to noise. Triangular Moving Average (TMA): Applies a double smoothing to price data. Adaptive Moving Average (AMA): Adapts dynamically to changing market trends. Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA): Adjusts speed based on volatility and noise. Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA): Uses dual EMAs to reduce lag in trends. Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA): Enhances trend detection with triple EMAs. Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA): Minimizes lag while improving price smoothness. Variable Moving Average (VMA): Adjusts its value based on market conditions. Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): Weights price data according to trading volume Jurik Moving Average (JMA): A highly smooth and responsive MA that reduces lag and noise. Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA): Adapts to market fractal geometry, adjusting speed based on volatility. Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average (ZLAMA): A variation of EMA that eliminates lag by compensating for past price movements. 4️⃣ 4. Calculations Moving averages are fundamental tools in technical analysis, helping to smooth price data and highlight trends. However, not all moving averages are created equal—each type is calculated differently, affecting how it responds to market movement. In this section, we’ll focus on the formulas behind a few of the most relevant and widely used types: the Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and Weighted Moving Average (WMA). a. Simple Moving Average (SMA) The Simple Moving Average (SMA) calculates the average price of an asset over a specified period. Lag: High (delayed response to price changes) Best for: Identifying long-term trends and support/resistance SMA = P1 + P2... + ... + Pn / n Where: P1 + P2... + ... + Pn: are the prices (usually closing prices) of the last n periods. n: is the number of periods on average. It gives an equal weight to all prices in the period. ta.sma(close, length) b. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) assigns higher weights to more recent prices, reducing lag and increasing responsiveness compared to SMA. Lag: Lower than SMA but higher than EMA Best for: Short-term trading strategies EMA = (Pt × α) + EMAy × (1 − α) Where: Pt: Current price (usually the closing price) EMAy: Previous period’s EMA α (alpha): Smoothing factor = 2 / (n + 1) n: Number of periods in the EMA It gives more weight to recent prices, reducing the lag compared to SMA. ema = ta.ema(close, length) c. Weighted Moving Average (WMA) The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) assigns higher weights to more recent prices, reducing lag and increasing responsiveness compared to SMA. Lag: Lower than SMA but higher than EMA Best for: Short-term trading strategies WMA = (P1 × w1 + P2 × w2 + ... + Pn × wn) / (w1 + w2 + ... + wn) Where: P1...Pn: Prices (usually closing) over the last n periods w1...wn: Weights assigned to each period (most recent gets the highest weight) n: Number of periods It reacts faster than SMA but smoother than EMA due to its linear weighting. wma = ta.wma(close, length) While there are many variations of moving averages available, the formulas covered here—SMA, EMA, and WMA—represent the most essential and commonly applied in both trading platforms and manual analysis. Understanding how these are calculated gives deeper insight into their strengths, limitations, and the types of signals they provide. 5️⃣ 5. Choosing the Right MA Choosing the Right Moving Average for Your Trading Style Choosing the right moving average (MA) depends on your trading style, time horizon, and goals. Different types of MAs have varying levels of sensitivity to price movements, so the choice should align with your trading strategy. Here’s how you can choose the best moving average based on your trading approach: Short-Term Traders (Day Traders, Scalpers) Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The EMA reacts faster to price changes, which is crucial for short-term traders who need to enter and exit positions quickly. Simple Moving Average (SMA): While less sensitive than the EMA, shorter-term SMAs (like the 5 or 10-period) can still be useful for spotting very quick trend changes. Hull Moving Average (HMA): Offers a good balance between smoothness and responsiveness, reducing lag while staying sensitive to price changes. Medium-Term Traders (Swing Traders) Simple Moving Average (SMA): Longer SMAs (like the 50-period or 100-period) are effective in identifying the general trend over a few days or weeks. Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The 20-period or 50-period EMA can work well for medium-term traders, providing a smoother trend signal while still responding to changes. Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): The SMMA gives a smoother trend and reduces the noise, which is ideal for swing traders who look for stable trends over a couple of weeks. Long-Term Traders (Position Traders, Investors) Simple Moving Average (SMA): Longer SMAs like the 100-period or 200-period SMA are perfect for long-term traders and investors. These averages provide a clear indication of the long-term trend and act as reliable support and resistance levels. Triangular Moving Average (TMA): TMA smooths out price movements even more and is useful for capturing long-term trends. It's slower, but highly effective for those trading in longer time frames. Trend-Following Traders Exponential Moving Average (EMA): As trend-following traders rely on capturing long trends, EMAs with longer periods (50, 100, 200) are a solid choice, providing smoother signals with less noise. Hull Moving Average (HMA): The HMA reduces lag, making it a great choice for trend-following traders who want to react quickly to changes while staying in the trend. 6️⃣ 6. How To Use Moving Averages Moving averages (MAs) are one of the most widely used tools in technical analysis due to their simplicity and effectiveness in identifying trends, smoothing price data, and signaling potential market reversals. They are used by traders to help spot entry and exit points, determine the direction of the market, and define dynamic support and resistance levels. Here’s a deeper dive into how moving averages are used in trading: Identifying Trends Uptrend: When the price is consistently above the moving average, it indicates a bullish trend. The longer the period of the moving average, the smoother it becomes, showing the overall direction of the market. Downtrend: Conversely, when the price is consistently below the moving average, it indicates a bearish trend. Sideways/Consolidation Market: When the price hovers around the moving average without a clear direction, the market is often in a consolidation phase. Support and Resistance Levels Support Levels: When the price is above a moving average and then pulls back to touch it, the moving average often acts as a support level. Traders anticipate the price to bounce off the moving average and resume its uptrend. Resistance Levels: When the price is below a moving average and then rallies back to it, the moving average often acts as a resistance level. This resistance can lead to a reversal or consolidation as the price struggles to break above the MA. 7️⃣ 7. Golden Cross & Death Cross One of the most well-known signals involving moving averages is the crossover of short-term and long-term moving averages. These crossovers are used to signal potential trend changes and provide traders with entry and exit signals. Golden Cross: Occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average. Death Cross: Occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average. Golden Cross This is considered a bullish signal, indicating that an uptrend may be starting or strengthening. When it happens: A common example of a Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. The short-term trend is gaining strength and could signal the beginning of a sustained uptrend. Why it works: The Golden Cross indicates that recent prices are moving higher and that momentum is accelerating. It suggests that buying pressure is overpowering selling pressure. Death Cross This is considered a bearish signal, indicating that a downtrend may be imminent or already in place. When it happens: A typical example of a Death Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, signaling that the short-term trend is weakening and a bearish shift may be in play. Why it works: The Death Cross shows that short-term price movements are declining relative to longer-term trends, and it indicates increasing selling pressure. 8️⃣ 8. MA Strategies Trend Following The trend following strategy focuses on identifying and capitalizing on strong price movements in one direction. Trend Identification: Moving averages are used to identify whether the market is trending up or down. The most common trend-following strategy is to buy when the price is above a key moving average and sell when it’s below. Trend Confirmation: Once the trend is identified using MAs, traders can enter trades that align with the trend. The idea is to "ride the wave" of the trend as long as possible until there is evidence of a reversal or loss of momentum. MA Crossover Moving average crossovers are one of the most popular and widely used strategies in technical analysis. Crossovers occur when a short-term moving average crosses over a longer-term moving average, signaling potential trend changes. Short-Term Crossovers: These are typically faster and more sensitive, which can help traders spot quicker market changes. Short-term crossovers tend to generate more signals, but they can also lead to more false signals in choppy or sideways markets. (9 EMA & 21 EMA Strategy) Long-Term Crossovers: These are slower and less frequent but tend to produce more reliable trend signals. Long-term crossovers filter out market noise and provide a clearer view of the overall market direction. (The 50/200-Day Moving Average Strategy) Mean Reversion Mean reversion is based on the idea that prices tend to return to their average over time. How to Identify Overextended Prices Overbought and Oversold Conditions: When the price is significantly above or below a moving average, it may be overextended. In such cases, traders expect the price to revert to the moving average. Using MAs as a Benchmark: Traders can use longer-term MAs, like the 50-day or 200-day moving averages, to identify overextended conditions. If the price moves significantly above or below the moving average, it is often seen as an opportunity for mean reversion trades. Trading Moving Average Pullbacks Pullbacks: A pullback is when the price moves against the prevailing trend, temporarily retracing toward the moving average before resuming its original trend. Buying Pullbacks in Uptrends: In an uptrend, traders look to buy when the price pulls back to a moving average like the 50-day or 200-day MA, assuming the trend will continue. Selling Pullbacks in Downtrends: In a downtrend, traders look for selling opportunities when the price temporarily rallies back to a moving average, anticipating a return to the downtrend. 9️⃣ 9. Key Takeaways Moving Averages (MAs) smooth price data, helping identify trends, entry, and exit points. Trend Following Strategies use MAs to align trades with the market’s direction (uptrend, downtrend). Support & Resistance: MAs act as dynamic levels where prices may reverse or consolidate. Crossovers: - Golden Cross (50/200-day crossover) signals a bullish trend. - Death Cross (50/200-day crossover) signals a bearish trend. - Short-Term Crossovers (9/21 EMA) provide faster signals for active traders. Mean Reversion Strategy: Prices often revert to their moving average after being overextended. Pullback Trading: Enter trades when prices pull back to key MAs during trends. Combining Indicators: - RSI confirms MAs’ buy or sell signals. - MACD crossover strengthens trend direction confirmation. - Bollinger Bands help assess volatility, confirming price targets and trends. Timeframe Selection: Short-term traders use quicker MAs (e.g., 9 EMA), while long-term traders prefer slower MAs (e.g., 200-day SMA). Best MA Settings: For trend-following, use 50/200-day MAs; for short-term, use 9/21 EMAs. Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Behind The Scenes ResearchI want to say thank you to all of you and to share with you all the work/resources/servers/and other data I maintain to help me identify where and how the markets will present opportunities to all of us. This video shows you a bit of the behind-the-scenes work I do and some of my proprietary modeling systems. I'm not sharing this with you to try to win you over or to tell you I do more than anyone else in terms of research. I'm sure there are many others who go much further than I do in terms of trying to dissect the markets and the opportunities available. But I do believe I deliver very unique research, which is a one-of-a-kind solution for traders. Again, I'm not 100% accurate (I wish I were). But I am trying to share some of the decision-making solutions I use to understand where the markets are likely to move over the next 2- 4+ months and how traders can profit from my research. Remember, you are only seeing about 10% of my total research, tools, modeling systems, and capabilities in these Plan Your Trade videos. I want to thank all of you who continue to value my work. It is not easy. It takes money, time, and resources to continue to monitor all of these systems/algos. The end result, I believe, is one of the most unique future/current modeling system resources you can find anywhere. Again, thank you for making my research a success. I promise to do more and improve my tools over the next 12+ months for everyone to find better profits. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
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