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Weekly Market Outlook: FOMC, Trade Deals and GeopoliticsIt is a holiday-shortened week, with the majority of markets halting early on Thursday, June 19, 2025, in observance of Juneteenth. See here for holiday trading schedule Key Themes to Monitor This Week Geopolitical Risks Any outside intervention in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict will likely be seen as a risk-off event by market participants. Despite Friday’s sell-off, markets shrugged off during the Sunday open and overnight sessions. There are potential risks to trade routes and energy infrastructure, although disruptions seem unlikely at the moment. Amena Bakr at Kpler noted that, so far, there are no signs of disruptions in oil loadings from Iran. Without a supply outage, there is no pressing need for additional barrels to be brought onto the market. Trade War and Trade Deals There have been recent developments with the U.S. reaching key trade deal milestones with several countries. The baseline scenario remains optimistic, with expectations for an extension in negotiations and potential reciprocal tariffs for countries failing to reach agreements. FED Week This is a key week for U.S. monetary policy, with the FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair Powell’s press conference scheduled. Traders will be closely watching how the Fed’s inflation and growth expectations have evolved, as reflected in the SEP. All eyes will be on the dot plot to note how interest rate expectations have evolved since last quarter. Of note: Will President Trump’s continued calls for rate cuts influence Chair Powell’s tone or guidance? Expectations for the Week Ahead NQ futures have continued one-time framing higher, consistently creating higher lows since the week of April 21, 2025. A strong support zone exists below, anchored at the yearly Volume Point of Control (VPOC) and the Anchored VWAP from May 11, 2025, when markets gapped higher. Key Levels to Watch • yVAH: 22,690.50 • R2: 22,510 • R1 / Previous Week High: 22,322.50 • May 11 AVWAP: 21,672.25 • yVPOC: 21,660 Scenario 1: Market Grinds Higher but Stays Cautious Despite several looming risk factors, the market could continue to grind higher. In this scenario, we anticipate a test above the prior week's high, followed by a potential pullback into last week’s range. Example Trade Idea 1 • Entry: 22,000 • Stop: 21,930 • Target: 22,322 • Risk: 70 pts • Reward: 322 pts • Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R Scenario 2: Pullback to Support, Range-Bound Consolidation If the market pulls back, we expect the yearly VPOC and AVWAP from May 11 to act as key support levels. In this case, price action may remain range-bound within the previous week’s range, forming an inside week. Example Trade Idea 2 • Entry: 21,672 • Stop: 21,600 • Target: 22,000 • Risk: 72 pts • Reward: 328 pts • Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R ________________________________________ Glossary • VPOC: Volume Point of Control • VA: Value Area • VAL: Value Area Low • VAH: Value Area High • VP: Volume Profile • AVP: Anchored Volume Profile • Y: Yearly • pWk: Previous Week
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
2
Meta & Microsoft: How Two Tech Titans Outran a Sinking Mag 7Forget about the Magnificent Seven and say hello to M&M — the only two winners of the year so far. If you blinked during the first half of 2025, you might’ve missed it: the mighty Magnificent Seven are starting to look more like a Scraggly Five. While Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA fumbled its autonomy narrative and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL spent more time designing slides for the WWDC than in keynotes, two names quietly did the thing — created shareholder value. Meta NASDAQ:META and Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT Both are up more than 13% year-to-date each, sitting comfortably at the top of the gains leaderboard. For comparison: Nvidia managed just 3% (and that’s with all the AI hype), and everyone else? Down. Flat. Or just ghosted by Wall Street. The iPhone maker? How’s 20% to the downside? Let’s break down how Meta and Microsoft dodged the selloff. 📞 Meta: Not About That Meta Meta NASDAQ:META came into 2025 like it had something to prove. Zuck had long gone full avatar with the metaverse. But now? Now he wants to win AI — and he’s putting his money where his data is. Meta’s latest foray into AI is a $14.3 billion investment into Scale AI. A 49% non-voting stake in the AI darling isn’t for fun — but for function. It’s a full-court press to close the Llama-size gap between Meta’s in-house models and the heavyweights like OpenAI and Anthropic. Scale AI, already one of Meta’s biggest vendors, processes and labels the data that fuels Meta’s large language models. It was only a matter of time before Zuck decided, “Hey, let’s just own a piece of the pipeline.” And in true tech soap opera fashion, Scale CEO Alexandr Wang last week confirmed in an internal memo he’s leaving to join Meta full-time. For those keeping score: Wang, born in 1997, became the youngest billionaire in 2021. Now, he’s headed into the belly of the Menlo Park beast. Wall Street seems to dig that. The stock shot up when the news leaked , as investors rewarded Meta for looking less like a social media giant and more like a serious AI player — even if it still serves your aunt’s minion memes. 👾 Microsoft: The OS of Enterprise Still Runs Smooth Meanwhile in Redmond, Satya Nadella was out here quietly running the table. Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT hit an all-time high of $480 on June 12, pushing its market cap to a record-breaking $3.5 trillion. For about a day or two before that, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA was on top — and then Microsoft did what Microsoft always does: calmly pressed Ctrl+Alt+Delete on its competition and reclaimed its spot as Earth’s most valuable company . How did that happen? Certainly not overnight. Azure continues to gobble cloud market share, Microsoft 365 is still the gold standard for digital productivity, and Teams — love it or hate it — is now basically corporate law. But don’t sleep on its AI game. Microsoft isn’t just throwing money at OpenAI, it’s embedding AI into everything it touches. Outlook, Excel, Word — all getting their Copilot upgrades. Want to finish that quarterly report faster? Let AI do it. Want it rewritten in pirate-speak? AI’s got you. Microsoft isn’t just building tools. It’s establishing an infrastructure for the new AI economy. And traders see that. They understand that while Nvidia sells the shovels, Microsoft owns the mine. 👩🏻‍💻 Why the Rest of the Mag 7 Didn’t Make the Cut Quick vibe check: Apple NASDAQ:AAPL Still chasing the AI breakthrough. No one talks about the Vision Pro headset anymore, and the annual WWDC event wasn’t anything special. The stock is down 20% on the year. Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA Robotaxis are coming ( maybe even this week ). But earnings pressure and margin squeeze made investors wish for more than tweets and timelines. The shares are underwater by 14% YTD. Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN E-commerce growth hit cruise control, and its AI presence still feels more like an R&D lab than a monetized machine. The stock is staring at a 3.7% loss, largely thanks to Amazon getting slapped in the face from Trump’s tariffs . Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL Search is still dominant, but Gemini’s bumpy launch and questionable performance has traders waiting for Google to actually ship something great, and not just strip the results from the iconic blue links . The stock is down 8%. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA Yes, still the king of chips. And yes, it’s still delivering. But with valuation stretched like Lululemons in a CrossFit class and export bans weighing heavy , it’s getting harder to maintain the pace. 🍻 Trading Lesson: Leadership Rotates If you’re a trader who’s been glued to Nvidia’s every tick or still buying dips on Apple because it “has to come back,” let this be your mid-year reminder: the market doesn’t care what used to lead. Leadership rotates. Fundamentals shift. And sometimes, the best trade is the one hiding behind less hype and more function. Case in point: While Apple’s been trying to find a catalyst, Meta just found a whole new business partner. While Nvidia’s been spinning plates on export rules, Microsoft’s just printing money off the back of Office subscriptions and Azure servers. 👀 What Happens Next? With the second half of the year approaching, all eyes are on: Meta’s AI ambitions — can the Scale deal accelerate model performance fast enough to close the gap with rivals? Microsoft’s cloud dominance — can Azure continue its double-digit growth without hitting the regulatory radar? Earnings, earnings, earnings — it’s almost the season again! Earnings reports kick off in about a month and things will get cracking. Whatever happens, don’t bet the farm on what used to work. Watch the rotation. Track the strategy shifts. And for the love of charts — keep one eye on the Earnings Calendar . 💬 Final Thought If Meta and Microsoft can shine while their peers flounder, what does that say about the real winners in this new AI economy? Maybe it’s not about who builds the flashiest model — but who actually knows how to monetize it. What’s your thought?
SP:SPX
by TradingView
3
Why Recursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX Could Be the NVDA of BiotechRecursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX is rapidly emerging as a transformative force in drug discovery, leveraging cutting-edge artificial intelligence and automation to industrialize and accelerate the development of new medicines. Here’s why RXRX could be the next NVIDIA (NVDA) of biotechnology and why its stock could soar by year-end: 1. AI-Powered Drug Discovery Platform with Unmatched Scale Recursion integrates AI, machine learning, automation, and advanced data science to decode biology and chemistry, dramatically reducing the time and cost of drug discovery. The company’s proprietary BioHive-2 supercomputer, built with NVIDIA’s DGX H100 systems, is the most powerful AI computing system wholly owned by any biopharma company, enabling Recursion to process biological data at unprecedented speeds. By reducing the number of compounds needed for clinical candidates from thousands to just 136–200 and shrinking development timelines to under a year, RXRX is fundamentally changing the economics of pharmaceutical R&D. 2. Strategic Partnerships and Industry Validation RXRX has forged high-profile partnerships with pharmaceutical giants such as Bayer, Roche/Genentech, Takeda, and Sanofi, validating its platform and unlocking milestone payments that could exceed $20 billion over time. The company’s collaboration with AI biotech Exscientia in a $700 million deal further cements its leadership in the AI-driven drug discovery space, creating a pipeline of 10 clinical and preclinical programs with hundreds of millions in potential milestones. NVIDIA itself holds over 7.7 million shares of RXRX, making it one of NVIDIA’s largest biotech investments and a strong endorsement of Recursion’s technology and long-term vision. 3. Explosive Revenue Growth and Strong Cash Position Analysts forecast Recursion’s revenue to grow at a 65% CAGR from $58.8 million in 2024 to $263 million by 2027, far outpacing the broader biotech sector. The company ended 2024 with over $600 million in cash, providing a solid runway for continued investment in R&D, platform expansion, and clinical trials. Wall Street analysts expect more than 50% upside in RXRX stock over the next 12–24 months, with multiple clinical milestones and partnership announcements as near-term catalysts. 4. Disruptive Vision: The “Virtual Cell” and Beyond RXRX is building toward a “virtual cell,” where AI models can simulate biological processes with such accuracy that wet lab experiments shift from data generation to validating computational predictions. This approach could dramatically improve drug development success rates, addressing the industry’s notorious 95% failure rate and positioning Recursion as the go-to platform for next-generation drug discovery. 5. Market Sentiment and Institutional Support RXRX has caught the attention of growth investors and major funds, including Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, further boosting its profile and liquidity. Recent stock surges and high trading volumes reflect growing investor confidence in Recursion’s disruptive potential and the broader AI-in-biotech trend.
NASDAQ:RXRXLong
by TopgOptions
8
MGY: Technical Breakout + Fundamental Momentum = Quiet Winner?Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) is showing one of the cleanest technical breakouts in the energy sector — and the market hasn’t priced it in yet. After months of pressure, price has broken above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with rising volume, signaling a clear phase shift from distribution to accumulation. Recent candles confirm control shifting to the buyers, with a tight structure, rising lows, and bullish momentum building underneath resistance. The fundamentals back the technical setup. In the latest earnings report, MGY delivered a 9.7% revenue increase, $110M in free cash flow, and continues to pay dividends with low leverage. UBS upgraded the stock with a $29 target, which aligns precisely with the post-breakout projection. Operationally, the company is expanding in key U.S. basins like Eagle Ford, while seeing growing demand from Australia and Latin America. With oil prices pushing higher and geopolitical tensions rising, MGY stands out as a stable energy play in a volatile world. Holding above the $24.00–$24.30 zone keeps the breakout valid, with $29+ as a natural magnet for price. Most investors are still asleep on this name — but the structure is already telling a very different story.
NYSE:MGYLong
by TotoshkaTrades
10
Gold Takes the Throne as Safe Haven AgainThe recent escalation in the Middle East — particularly Israel’s surprise strike on Iran — has stirred up significant volatility in global financial markets. Oil prices surged, stock markets around the world turned red, just as many had predicted. However, in a surprising twist, capital did not rush into the usual safe havens like the US dollar or Treasury bonds. Instead, it flowed decisively into gold. In fact, US Treasury yields have soared from 3.98% in April to around 4.42% now. This surge doesn’t signal growing confidence — it reflects investor demand for higher returns to compensate for the rising risk of holding dollar-denominated assets. Against this backdrop, gold is emerging as an “unshackled safe haven” — immune to political instability tied to fiat-currency-issuing nations. The precious metal is once again proving its value in times of global uncertainty.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Edward_TradingFX
21
EUR/USD: Euro Pops Above $1.16 in Four-Year High. What’s Next?The dollar wobbles, Trump talks tariffs, and the euro’s got its dancing shoes on. The Euro Wakes Up, Stretching Its Legs at $1.16 Look who just rolled out of bed and decided to make a scene. For the first time in four years, the euro has finally leapt out of its slumber and sprinted to $1.16 — all at the expense of the US dollar, which continues to shed value. The FX:EURUSD isn’t just crawling higher. It’s flexing, fueled by dollar fatigue, political drama, and some very European stubbornness. So what’s behind the move? Why is the euro soaring while the European Central Bank is actually cutting rates? And what’s the dollar doing? Let's unpack it all — one central bank, one tweet, and one inflation print at a time. Trump’s Tariff Ping-Pong: Back On, Back Off Let’s start with the one thing that never quite leaves the headlines: Trump’s trade policy. Just when traders were catching their breath after some tariff reprieve on China, the market got pulled back into the mess. “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT,” Trump posted on Truth Social late on Wednesday, reigniting fears that the trade war is getting heated up again. Especially after a US squad of negotiators touched down in London and walked away with some promising news . Markets don’t love confusion. Investors especially don’t love a US trade policy that changes faster than the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC during CPI week. This kind of noise erodes confidence in US economic leadership and — more importantly — in the dollar. The world’s most important currency is starting to feel… less important, less relevant, and less reliable. And while it’s not collapsing, it’s definitely catching fewer friends at the FX party. On the other side of the pond, the euro isn’t rising because Europe is crushing it (even though it’s doing pretty well against rival currencies, just check the forex heatmap ) — it’s rising because the dollar is slipping off its pedestal. So yes, the euro’s up. But this isn’t a standing ovation for Europe — it’s more of a polite shrug away from America. US Inflation Creeps Higher — And That Means a Cut? US inflation picked up to 2.4% in May but still left the door open for a cut by the Federal Reserve. So what does the market do? It prices in a cut. Lower rates mean lower yields on Treasuries, which means less incentive for global investors to hold dollars. And when the yield game turns dull, guess what gets more attention? Gold OANDA:XAUUSD — because if your asset doesn’t yield anything, at least let it be shiny. ECB Cuts Again, and the Euro Still Rises? Now here’s the riddle. The ECB last week cut its benchmark rate to 2% , hitting a two-year low. By all textbook logic, a rate cut should weaken the local currency. Here’s why it’s rising instead: Markets are forward-looking . The rate cut was expected and already priced in. What matters now is whether more cuts are coming (spoiler: not too many). Traders are betting the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle — and may turn neutral soon. The Fed looks more dovish . Rate differentials still matter. Even if the ECB is cutting, the Fed is expected to cut more over the next 12 months. That narrows the gap between euro and dollar yields, making the euro more attractive in relative terms. Eurozone data isn’t great — but it’s not falling apart either. While growth in the eurozone isn’t setting any records, it’s been just OK to support the currency. Inflation is cooling in line with ECB targets, unemployment remains low, and key sectors like manufacturing are showing signs of life. Put it all together and you get a euro that’s rising despite rate cuts — a phenomenon that would make FX professors tear their hair out, but makes perfect sense when you zoom out. Technicals: This Isn’t a Flash in the Pan From a chartist’s perspective, the FX:EURUSD breakout above $1.16 was a big deal. That level had acted as resistance since November 2021. Now cleared, a flurry of algo buys and retail FOMO might fuel the next leg in either direction. From the bulls’ perspective, momentum is picking up, and the euro looks poised to test $1.17–$1.18 if the dollar stays fragile (that said, keep your eye on any hot news coming out of the economic calendar ). RSI is not yet flashing overbought, and MACD is still screaming “more grounds to cover.” Question is: How long can the euro dance before the music changes? And we’re asking you — share your thoughts on the euro-dollar pair and let’s see who gets it right!
by TradingView
16
ETHEREUM: THE NEW BOND OF THE DIGITAL WORLDPrice isn’t the goal. Price is the side effect. Meanwhile, BlackRock - a black hole with a trust-backed logo - just absorbed 42,000 ETH more. Yesterday, you may have read this "regular" headline: BlackRock increases its Ethereum exposure to $4 billion, adding $109.5 million via ETFs. But here’s what you missed: there are no random numbers on the market. When a player like this moves - it’s not hype. It’s a blueprint for the future. Ethereum is no longer an altcoin. It’s no longer speculation. It’s a financial infrastructure, already recognized by law, exchanges, and institutions. What does this mean? 💡 Ethereum is now a digital bond - with yield flowing from blocks. Profit is no longer built on promises, but on the structure of the chain itself. Trust lies not in faces, but in code. Growth is not artificial — it’s architectural. And here’s why this is terrifyingly beautiful: While you sleep, they are building an era. Each ETF purchase removes ETH from circulation - permanently. Because: ✅ This ETH is gone from the open market ✅ It won’t be panic-sold ✅ It becomes income-bearing collateral, not a speculative asset Still waiting for an entry signal? The big players are already in. This is no longer crypto - this is cash flow infrastructure, embedded into the digital economy. And when pension funds, insurers, and sovereign investors move into Ethereum - they will come via ETFs. Not because it’s trendy, but because it’s regulated, stable, and profitable. 📉 When institutional demand meets vanishing supply - the price won’t simply rise. It will explode, not as growth, but as a structural liquidity shift. Ethereum is: 💸 Staking = passive yield 🔗 Backbone of DeFi 🖼 Fuel for NFTs ⚙️ Millions of transactions per second ⚖️ A regulated ETF asset This is the new digital bond system, where the bet isn’t on the dollar - it’s on ETH as an income-producing asset. 💥 While you're reading this, the game is already on. ETFs are rewriting the rules of time-ownership. No hype. Just filings. Just intention. Best regards EXCAVO
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by EXCAVO
21
Silver surge has more bullish upsideSilver is breaking out. Its strength is no accident. The US is running a structural deficit north of 6% of GDP in a full-employment economy. The bond market has absorbed the pain so far, but pressure is building. Investors are starting to look for insurance. Silver is one of the cleanest ways to play the dollar’s long-term debasement. The metal is trading well above its 200-day moving average. The US$31.50-32.00 zone now acts as solid support. Any pullback into that range is likely to be short-lived. Silver doesn’t move in straight lines. It runs, consolidates, then runs again, usually in 50–90 day cycles. The current setup fits that rhythm. The gold-to-silver ratio is still near 100x. Historically, the average is closer to 60-70x. That gives silver more room to catch up. Traders can short gold and go long silver to play that mean reversion. Or simply buy silver outright and short the dollar. ETF inflows into silver have picked up, showing broader market interest. The main risk? A sudden shift in Fed tone or falling inflation expectations. But that seems unlikely near term. Silver isn’t just a trade. It’s a message. A hedge against fiscal irresponsibility and the cost of kicking the can too far.
TVC:SILVER
by Blueberry
16
Soaring platinum breaks a 3 year high at $1,152.50/ozChina, the world’s largest consumer of platinum, imported its highest amount in a year last month. Retail investment demand (bars and coins) in China more than doubled, overtaking North America as the top market for platinum investment. Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence predict that global platinum demand will exceed supply for the rest of the decade. Key technical levels: • Platinum futures hit a 3+ year high at $1,152.50/oz. • Next resistance levels: o $1,197.00 (March 2022 high) o $1,281.40 (May 2021 high) o $1,348.20 (February 2021 high) • All-time high: $2,308.80 (March 2008) The strong Chinese demand and lagging EV transition may fuel a sustained bull run in platinum prices. Investment opportunities may exist if technical resistance levels are broken, potentially retesting highs from 2021 and 2022 even aiming toward the 2008 peak. Supply constraints and investment interest make platinum a strategic metal to watch in both industrial and financial markets.
CAPITALCOM:PLATINUM
by Blueberry
26
Elon Musk vs Trump: Who you betting on?Elon Musk and Donald Trump have recently had a public falling-out, with their feud playing out on social media and in political circles. The dispute seems to have started over Trump's new budget bill, which Musk has criticized for increasing the national debt. Trump, in turn, accused Musk of being upset because the bill removes electric vehicle subsidies that benefit Tesla. The tension escalated when Trump suggested that Musk had known about the bill beforehand and had no issue with it until after leaving his government role. Musk denied this, claiming he was never shown the bill and that it was passed too quickly for proper review. Trump then took things further by threatening to cut Musk’s government contracts and subsidies, which amount to billions of dollars. Musk responded defiantly on social media, calling Trump "ungrateful" and claiming that without his financial support, Trump would have lost the election. TSLA violated key levels and will be looking for a sharp technical bounce off the $260-$257 zone
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Trading-Capital
33
The MSCI World index sets a new all-time record!The MSCI World stock market index set a new all-time record during the trading session of Monday June 2, wiping out the entire stock market shock of February/March, which saw the global equity market lose 20%. This technical signal still needs to be confirmed at the end of the week at the next weekly technical close. If this bullish technical break were to be confirmed, then this would be a very positive signal for the global equity market, which is still hoping that trade diplomacy will lead to solid trade agreements between the USA and its main trading partners (China and the EU). The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks of the MSCI World index. 1) Composition and calculation of the MSCI World index The MSCI World Index (Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index) is a benchmark stock market index that measures the performance of large- and mid-cap equities in developed countries. Here are the main elements of its composition: The MSCI World Index is a benchmark global stock market index that measures the performance of large- and mid-cap equities in 23 developed countries. Created by Morgan Stanley Capital International, it offers a global view of the equity markets in the most advanced economies. Among the countries included are the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada and Australia. The index comprises some 1,600 companies, with a strong dominance of the USA, which accounts for almost 70% of its total weighting. The most represented sectors are information technology, healthcare, financial services and consumer discretionary. The MSCI World is calculated using a weighting method based on free-float market capitalization, i.e. taking into account only those stocks actually available for purchase on the markets. This means that companies with a higher market value and a larger free float have a greater influence on the index's performance. The MSCI World is updated regularly to reflect market developments and the entry or exit of companies. Although it offers broad geographic diversification, it does not include emerging countries; these are covered by the MSCI ACWI index, which is also close to setting a new all-time record and is 13% composed of emerging countries (China, India, etc.). 2) Trade diplomacy and the FED's monetary policy outlook are key to keeping the global equity market bullish in the months ahead. Trade diplomacy and the FED's monetary policy outlook are closely linked fundamental factors which have a direct impact on global equity market trends. While the US inflation rate continues to trend towards the FED's 2% target, the FED is waiting for trade agreements to be signed to ensure that the risk of a second wave of inflation is averted, so that it can resume cutting the US federal funds rate. These two fundamental conditions are essential if the global equity market is to confirm its new record highs over the coming months. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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AMEX:URTH
by Swissquote
10
Do bulls have enough steam to drive gold higher?A lot of things to consider this week, a lot of data and geopolitical tensions. Will the economic uncertainty and potential bad US jobs data drive TVC:GOLD higher? Let's dig in. FX_IDC:XAUUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:GOLD
by Marketscom
8
Rate Cuts and Risky Bets: When the Fed Rolls Out the Red Carpet🎬 The Fed’s June Meeting Is Around the Corner Mark your calendars: June 17–18 is when the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes next. With the benchmark interest rate ECONOMICS:USINTR currently holding steady at 4.25% – 4.50%, investors and policymakers alike are keenly awaiting any signals of a shift in monetary policy. Market expectations suggest a cautious approach, with futures markets indicating a modest probability of rate cuts in the latter half of the year. That said, the upcoming meeting could offer some juicy insights into the Fed's outlook — yes, in this economy. 🤝 Trump vs. Powell: The Sequel No One Asked For President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently had their first face-to-face meeting during Trump’s second term, rekindling a familiar tension. Trump criticized Powell for maintaining high interest rates, saying it puts the US at an economic disadvantage compared to countries like China. Not too surprising, Trump’s tone, that is. As a matter of fact, it’s way softer than when the President called the Fed chair a “major loser.” Anyway, Powell was holding back at the meeting, saying that the Fed is independent and that monetary policy decisions are based on objective economic data, not political pressure. Despite Trump's public and private criticisms, Powell remains steadfast in his approach, focusing on long-term economic stability over short-term political considerations. 📉 Inflation, Employment, and the Tightrope Walk Inflation has decreased significantly from its peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 2.3% in April 2025 , nearing the Fed's 2% target. However, the labor market remains robust, with unemployment rates at historically low levels. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act: cutting rates too soon could reignite inflation, while maintaining high rates might dampen economic growth. This tightrope walk requires careful analysis of incoming data and a measured approach to policy adjustments. 🛍️ Market Reactions: Bulls, Bytes, and Bullion If rate cuts are the rumor, the S&P 500 SP:SPX is already buying the headline. The index clawed back all of its early-year slump and now sits just above the flatline. Traders are clearly pricing in a friendlier Fed, even if Jerome Powell hasn’t sent out the official RSVP yet. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD , meanwhile, has been doing what it does best — quietly flexing in the corner as uncertainty swirls. Prices bounced back above $3,300 in late May, reminding everyone that when central banks blink, bullion blings. A rate cut could weaken the dollar — and gold’s inverse relationship with the greenback suddenly looks like a playbook move. Speaking of the dollar, the dollar index TVC:DXY has been wobbling like it’s just finding its feet. With inflation softening and tariff noise all over the place, the buck has lost some swagger . Traders are already rotating out of safe havens and into riskier plays, including… Yep, Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ). Crypto’s original bad boy is back on the move, orbiting near $110,000 after rewriting its all-time high book in May. A dovish Fed can technically pour more rocket fuel into the rally, especially as sovereign adoption and ETF flows keep pumping ( $9 billion in just five weeks?! ). In the land of easy money, Bitcoin doesn’t just survive — it thrives. The takeaway? Markets love a dovish pivot. Whether you're holding stocks, stacking sats, or eyeing gold bars, the Fed’s next move could be the difference between breakout and breakdown. 🧠 What to Keep in Mind As the June Fed meeting approaches, traders should consider the following strategies: Diversification: Maintain a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with interest rate volatility. Equity Exposure: Evaluate exposure to sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as the good old tech space and throw in some financials — banks love rate moves. Inflation Hedges: Consider assets like gold or silver to hedge against unexpected inflationary pressures. 🧾 Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty The June Fed meeting isn’t just another calendar event — it’s a market-defining moment dressed in central bank jargon. With politics heating up and inflation cooling down, Powell’s next move could either pump more cash into the risk rally or throw cold water on the party. Yes, the noise is loud. Yes, the data is messy. But through it all, one thing holds: staying nimble beats being early. Whether you're riding the S&P 500, hodl’ing Bitcoin, or hugging gold like a doomsday prepper, this is the time to trade the chart, not the chatter. Off to you : Are you in the rate-cut camp or you think there’s more ground to cover before Powell and his squad tune the pitch down? Comment below!
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by TradingView
7
Nvidia Posts Another Blowout Quarter. What Can Slow It Down?Hint: Not much. 🚀 Earnings So Good You Can’t Ignore ‘Em Another quarter, another jaw-dropper from Nvidia NVDA . In what has basically become a quarterly ritual at this point (congrats to all who celebrate!), Jensen Huang’s silicon empire posted revenue of $44.1 billion , soaring past the $43.3 billion consensus. That’s a 69% year-over-year gain, in case anyone’s still doing the math. Adjusted earnings of 81 cents per share also easily crushed expectations. Shares popped 5% in after-hours trading Wednesday and then pulled back a little bit during the cash session on Thursday — not quite a moonshot, but a confirmation that even if Nvidia’s guidance was meh, this earnings report was meh’gnificent. So what exactly is fueling this unstoppable juggernaut? And is there anything that could actually throw a wrench in the gears? Grab your chips (there’s your pun), let’s break it down. 💾 Data Centers: The Company’s Cash Cow If Nvidia is famous for anything, it’s that it’s really able to see the trend before the crowds pick it up. From gaming, to crypto… and now? The star of the show now is data centers. But there's not just any growth. We’re talking $39.1 billion in data center revenue, up 73% from last year. That’s nearly 90% of Nvidia’s entire business. Not exactly fans of revenue diversification, are we? Big Tech is gorging on Nvidia’s AI chips like it’s an all-you-can-eat GPU buffet. Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , Google NASDAQ:GOOGL , and Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT alone account for nearly half of that segment. Basically, if you’re building anything with the words “large language model,” “AI agent,” or “sovereign compute,” you’re probably writing big checks to Nvidia. 🇨🇳 About That $10.5 Billion Problem Thanks to Trump’s H20 export ban, Nvidia’s revenue from China is expected to take a $10.5 billion hit over two quarters. That’s an $8 billion crater forecasted for the current quarter, on top of a $2.5 billion gap in the previous one. Is that bad? Maybe. Does anyone care right now? Not really. Because here’s the kicker: demand outside China is so nuclear that even subtracting ten billion bucks over six months doesn’t materially derail the bullish narrative. Nvidia’s still forecasting $45 billion in revenue this quarter, which is basically flat — but considering what’s missing, that’s a win in disguise. 📦 Blackwell to the Rescue The forward guidance may have missed the Street’s expectations — Nvidia projected Q2 revenue of $44–$46 billion, versus the $45.9 billion consensus — but CEO Jensen Huang already served the antidote: Blackwell Ultra. These next-gen chips are already shipping to early customers. They promise to be leaner, meaner, and more power-efficient — basically, think McLaren but for AI accelerators. And they’re expected to ramp up aggressively in the back half of the year. That means Nvidia has a new growth lever just waiting to be pulled. Some overly bullish analysts say it could eclipse the H100’s success. 💡 The Real Moat? It’s Not Just the Chips What makes Nvidia such a rare beast isn’t just its hardware. It’s the ecosystem — CUDA, software stacks, developer tools, APIs, vertical integrations. It’s like Apple, but for the AI industrial complex. Everyone wants to build an AI empire, but good luck doing it without Nvidia’s infrastructure. It’s not just expensive — it’s essential. In the meantime, AMD NASDAQ:AMD and Intel NASDAQ:INTC are trying. There’s chatter about custom silicon from OpenAI (still a private company) and Meta $META. But for now, the moat around Nvidia looks more like a canyon. 🧨 So What Could Slow It Down? But let’s not get carried away — there are still some real risks on the radar. Here’s what might actually trip up the AI king: Geopolitical shocks: More export bans? Chinese retaliation? Taiwan tension? Any of these could make markets twitchy. Supply chain constraints: As demand grows, so does pressure on foundries like TSMC 2330 . Any hiccups in advanced packaging or wafer starts could pinch margins. Rising competition: AMD’s MI300 is no slouch. And Big Tech is building in-house chips to lessen reliance on Nvidia. AI fatigue: If the AI hype cycle fizzles out or hits a plateau (remember the metaverse?), that could cool capital spending. It only takes 3-4 tech titans to pull their capex and Nvidia’s reign is over. But until any of that materializes, the narrative for many is "Buy the dip — Jensen’s grip won’t slip." 💫 What’s Priced In? The stock’s P/E is still sky-high, and the multiple implies several more years of 50–60% annual revenue growth. That’s hard to sustain indefinitely. But then again, so was becoming the second-largest company in the world… (and the biggest one, if only for a while ) and here we are. Nvidia’s valuation is steep, but not unjustified — as long as it keeps executing. And judging by any of the previous quarters going back to 2023, execution isn’t a problem. 👩🏻‍🚀 More Than a Stock — Macro Theme At this point, Nvidia has transcended chipmaker status. It’s now a macro story. Betting on Nvidia is betting on AI. It’s betting on infrastructure. It’s betting on the next industrial revolution in software, automation, and language models. So… what can stop it? Share your thoughts in the comment section!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradingView
18
Is Bitcoin Ready for Its Next Leg Up? Here’s What We Know So FarBitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is so back — not just back like “we recovered the dip,” but back like “new all-time highs, let’s go shopping for Lambos on moons” back. If you’ve been following our Top Stories coverage, you’ll know that the OG token vaulted past $109,500 last week, then kissed $111,900 in “Tom Cruise falling off a building” style. Only that there wasn’t a fall to the ground. Instead, Bitcoin prices got stuck near $110,000 and are now waiting for the next catalyst. Where are we in the cycle? The memes are pumping. Maxis are chest-thumping (this one’s for you, Saylor ). And the market? Well, it’s trying to figure out if this rocket still has fuel, or if we’re hovering at apogee before gravity reminds us it’s still a thing. Let’s break down what’s really going on — with numbers, context, and just enough forecast to keep it spicy. 🚀 Bitcoin Goes Bionic Call it what you want — a breakout, a blowoff, or a moonshot — Bitcoin just rewrote the record books. The OG coin is up 48% since its April lows, a run that’s as explosive as it is poetic. Remember the bearish chants echoing when BTC dipped near $74,000 in early spring? And all those Bitcoin permabears saying it’s all going to zero? Yeah, those are suddenly hard to hear over the rocket engines. This is the moment Bitcoin believers have been waiting for. Institutional interest continues to show inflows are strong. Adoption is real and making solid progress. And price action is loud — loud enough to drown out the skeptics still quoting tulip bubbles from 1637. 💥 Why the Breakout? A Perfect Storm Looking at the fundamentals and the technicals — this wasn’t a fluke. It was a perfect cocktail of macro tailwinds, regulatory green lights, and unrelenting digital gold fever. ETF flows? Exchange-traded funds are collecting record levels of fresh capital — all eleven of them . Institutional demand? Climbing faster than Saylor can tweet. Macro backdrop? Soft dollar, muted inflation, and a shiny 90-day trade truce between the US and China paired with one between the US and the EU . Regulatory mood? A lot less hostile than the Biden administration, with a stablecoin bill clearing the Senate’s procedural vote and Texas passing a law to hold Bitcoin in its reserve fund. Bitcoin didn’t ride the wave — it was the wave. And with volatility finally working for traders, not against them, the rally gained real traction. 📉 Not All Risk is Behind Us Now before we start naming stars after Satoshi, let’s pump the brakes (just a little). The flagship crypto might be chilling around $110,000, but this asset class has the emotional range (and discipline) of a toddler. We’ve seen rallies like this before. We’ve also seen how quickly they unravel. Upcoming economic data could throw a wrench in the gears. Here’s what to watch for this week: Wednesday: Fed minutes Thursday: GDP figures Friday: Core PCE inflation Any surprises here — especially hotter-than-expected inflation or hawkish Fed sentiment — could rattle the risk-on party. Bitcoin loves liquidity. If the Fed hints at tightening, the rocket might need to refuel mid-air. 🧭 Key Levels to Watch Technically, the $111,900 print is your short-term ceiling. It’s the new line in the sand — the price everyone’s watching, waiting for a clean break or a hard rejection. On the downside, $105,000–$106,000 is developing as support. Break that, and $100,000 becomes the psychological safety net. Below that? Well, let’s not talk about it unless we have to. Until then, price is consolidating. Think of it like a pit stop — a chance for bulls to breathe, for bears to panic quietly, and for traders to argue about Fibonacci levels. 🛰️ Is $120K Next? Or Is This the Top? But let’s dig into it a little bit. The real question is whether this rally still has legs. Some traders are calling $120,000 a “magnet level.” Others are treating current prices like the top and selling into strength. The answer? Probably both. Momentum is still there — just cooled off a bit. Volume’s down slightly. Social buzz is still high up there. The market’s in a classic “wait-and-see” phase, prepping for a bigger move in either direction. What could break the stalemate? A blockbuster inflation report (bullish if soft). Another policy win from Washington. Or the most powerful force of all: a dovish stance from the man who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon” (bonus points if you guess who that is!) 📢 Final Word: Celebrate, But Stay Sharp If you’ve been long since the dip, this is your moment. Pop some virtual (or real?) champagne. Screenshot that green PnL. Post a gif of Elon and Trump dancing. But if you’re entering now, zoom out. Yes, momentum is bullish. Yes, fundamentals are stronger than ever. But Bitcoin doesn’t do straight lines for long. And your stop-loss isn’t going to set itself. Whether $120K is next or we pull back to reset, the next few sessions will be crucial. Your move : Are you buying this breakout? Waiting for confirmation? Or just enjoying the view from orbit? Let us know how you’re playing this Bitcoin beast — because one thing’s certain: it’s never boring up here.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
36
USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 14USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 144 🌍 Macro Landscape: JPY Stuck Between Two Diverging Forces In recent weeks, the US dollar has regained strength as the Federal Reserve remains committed to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance. On the flip side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, widening the yield spread between the USD and JPY, and putting pressure on the yen. The surge in US 10-year yields toward 4.5% is further dampening demand for JPY as a safe haven, prompting institutional capital outflows from the yen and inflows into USD-based assets. 🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed Remains Firm, BoJ Stays Dovish Federal Reserve: FOMC members continue to signal patience on rate cuts. Recent inflation data (PCE, CPI) shows sticky price pressure, especially in services. Bank of Japan: BoJ remains hesitant to normalize policy despite inflation consistently above the 2% target. This policy divergence is reminiscent of the conditions that pushed USDJPY above 151 last year — and current dynamics hint that history may repeat. 🌐 Capital Flows: JPY Loses Safe-Haven Appeal Global capital flow models indicate a major shift. While gold and the US dollar are once again sought-after hedges amid US-China tensions and EU fiscal risk, the Japanese yen is being overlooked. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio — the highest in the G7 — forces BoJ to maintain low rates to keep the fiscal structure sustainable. As a result, JPY is no longer viewed as a reliable store of safety. 📊 Technical Structure: Momentum Building Toward 144.1 On the H1 chart: Price bounced sharply from the 142.33 demand zone, forming a higher low. EMA 13 – 34 – 89 show a bullish alignment ("fan-out formation") confirming short-term bullish momentum. Resistance near 144.13–144.20 is key: a clean breakout could trigger an extended rally to 145.00+ However, this zone may also trigger profit-taking, especially if traders react to upcoming macro data. 🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations Scenario 1 – Buy the Pullback (Preferred): Entry: 142.70 – 142.90 Stop-Loss: 142.30 Take-Profit: 143.80 → 144.13 → 144.60 Scenario 2 – Breakout Momentum Buy: Entry: 144.15 Stop-Loss: 143.70 Take-Profit: 145.00 → 145.50 ⚠️ Key Events to Watch: US PCE Price Index (April): If hotter-than-expected, this would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone and lift USD. BoJ Governor Speech (end of week): Any unexpected hawkish shift could trigger a short-term rebound in JPY.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
10