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HAPPY THANKSGIVING! Let's see Bitcoin's price on this date!Let me begin by wishing everyone in the TradingView community a Happy Thanksgiving! A day of joy, gathering and happy family moments! Aren't you curious to see where the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading on this day in the previous years? If so, have a look: 2010: $0.28 2011: $2.49 2012: $12.51 2013: $813 2014: $376 2015: $328 2016: $739 2017: $8,771 2018: $4,015 2019: $7,150 2020: $18,764 2021: $58,927 2022: $16,353 2023: $37,000 So the obvious question is this. Do you see the pattern?? Since 2009 there have been 10 Thanksgiving dates where the price of BTC was higher than the previous year and only 4 where it was lower. Only once we've seen two straight red Thanksgivings and at least two green Thanksgiving dates follow. This year we have a green one, more than double the price of 2022 and in fact this is the first time BTC doubled coming from a red Thanksgiving since 2016. An interesting pattern that arises on this chart is that when measuring the line that connects the Thanksgiving closer to the Cycle Top back to years, we can see that its angle is lower (naturally) by a certain rate. From 2015 to 2017 it measured the previous angle x 0.64. From 2019 to 2021 it was the previous angle x 0.68. From 2022 to 2024 based on this progressive pattern, is should be the previous angle x 0.72 (0.68 + 0.04). That gives us a rough value just under $80000 for the next Thanksgiving (November 28 2024). It is very possible that the Cycle top will be priced higher a few weeks after on an aggressive spike above $100k, as BTC often does (only the June 2011 Cycle Top was way off, being in the middle of two Thanksgivings). But what do you think about this model and its projection? Are you expecting a BTC price around 80k on the next Thanksgiving and if not, what is your estimate? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
32
BITCOIN UPDATE (SCROLL DOWN)We are in an ascending channel pattern for 466 days now, which is a bearish pattern, we are hovering around $36566 price, we lots of volatility yesterday because the CEO of Binance stepped down. For the price to still be where it is now is actually a good reaction from the market! This does not mean bearish and bullish patterns always play out, what we can do is set alerts on the resistance and support levels and trendlines and identify the patterns so we can trade it accordingly.
by UnknownUnicorn22804749
32
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B
by TradingView
28
New Kids on the Block: ETF StyleI recently released 2 libraries and an indicator that revolved around ETFs, their composition and their performance. Creating these libraries required me to do quite a bit of research on which ETFs are currently dominating the US market and which may be more obscure. It also lead me to discover that quite a few new ETFs with pretty powerful holdings have hit the market as recently as last month ($BCLR for example). So I thought I would take the time to go over some of the new kids on the block, the ETFs that is, and also shed some light on potentially some ETFs that you may not have heard of but may be of interest to you. After 2022, I shifted my self-managed portfolios into mostly ETFs so this topic is something that is particularly interesting for me, hope it is for you too! So let us go over the new release ETFs and whether they are a Buy, Sell or Maybe: Blackrock Large Cap Core ETF (AKA NASDAQ:BLCR ) Hitting the market in October of this year and being managed by a big-name investment firm (BlackRock), this ETF is something you may want to seriously consider. With its biggest holding in MSFT, it does well in diversification. If you look at the chart above, you will see the breakdown by sector. It is a very well-rounded ETF, though 27% of its sector holdings are tech, there is admirable diversity, especially through financial services, consumer cyclical, communication services, and Energy. As it is new, we can’t see its performance over the past 252 trading days (1 trading year), but we can see that since it hit the market it has seen over 7% growth, likely due to its heavy investment into pretty relevant stocks. This is on my 💰BUY💰 list, as I see this as being a hybrid of SPY and QQQ but at a better entry cost. First Trust S-Network Streaming & Gaming ETF (AKA AMEX:BNGE ) This one hit exchanges in January of 2022 and is based on streaming and gaming services. Its biggest holding is in NFLX and NTES (an internet technology company based on various online services including streaming), we can see by its holdings there is quite a hefty holding in some pretty big streaming and gaming companies, including Nintendo ( OTC:NTDOY ), Sony ( NYSE:SONY ), Disney ( NYSE:DIS ) and EA ( SET:EA ). Its past trading year history boasts a net gain of 36.54%. This is on my 🤷maybe🤷 list, as I am not big into the gaming sector and don't follow it too closely fundamentally. Direxion Moonshot Innovators ETF (AKA AMEX:MOON ) This one came to exchanges in November of 2020 and, contrary to its name, has yet to seemingly reach the moon. This is an ETF I have mixed feelings about, as its largest holding is in Nikola Corporation. If you don’t remember, the Nikola Corporation, the corporation that was producing those electric trucks, got involved in a scandal when it turned out the prototypes that they displayed had no real engine and their stock dropped dramatically after that came to light: This issue was only resolved in 2022 after extensive court proceedings. This resulted in the indictment of the founder Trevor Milton but not the company itself. That said, they have made progress and actually do have operational trucks that have been shipped and delivered, as of researching this they have sent out a total of 44. However, unfortunately, these trucks have, quite literally, been blowing up in flames. So yeah… not great. And probably not a great stock to lead your ETF with, but to each their own. That said, the other holdings are quite admirable and not generally held on other ETFs. For example, they have a large holding on Robinhood ( NASDAQ:HOOD ), Coinbase ( NASDAQ:COIN ), and Snapchat ( NYSE:SNAP ). And yes, these companies also have their own problems and scandals to go along with them. Because of the aforementioned, it's not generally an ETF that would interest me as it is predominately very speculative companies, but you can decide for yourself if it's holding interest you and your tastes of investments. It may not be a bad one to have a small holding in, in case NIKOLA or COIN ever get their stuff together. For me, this would be on my ❌SELL ❌ list. U.S. Global Jets ETF (AKA AMEX:JETS ) If you are a huge aviation fan, this may be an ETF for you! While its pay year of trading has not been great, largely because the aviation industry is still feeling the shockwave effect of a post-COVID world, it does hold some very solid airline stocks such as American Airlines ( NASDAQ:AAL ), Delta ( NYSE:DAL ) and Air Canada ( TSX:AC ). It's in a spot where it has me considering a potential position myself, but I will let you be the judge of it! Overall, this would be on my 💰BUY💰 list. U.S. Global Sea to Sky Cargo ETF (AKA AMEX:SEA ) Hitting the markets in January of 2022, SEA has not been a great performer thus far. I am not all that familiar with the Cargo or marine sector as this has never been a sector I have personally traded and thus, I have no exposure to reviewing earnings, performance, and fundamentals of various shipping companies, but a brief look at some of its holdings show that these are pretty well-established shipping companies. Take this anecdote with a grain of salt, however, as I have not fully reviewed earnings releases or their SEC filings as I have with companies like BA, NKLA, etc. It is definitely worth checking out, for the sole reason that marine cargo and transportation will remain the gold standard for large material shipping for many years to come. But definitely do your due diligence before investing! This is on my 🤷 maybe 🤷 list. Xtrackers Semiconductor Select Equity ETF (AKA NASDAQ:CHPS ) Coming to markets very recently, July of this year to be exact, this is another ETF that deals with the semiconductor and chip sector. Before, your options were SOXX and that was pretty much it, so this is a breath of fresh air for the chips industry. As it hasn’t been on the market for very long, I can’t really speak to its performance, but if we look at its biggest holdings, it's quite a decent list. Its biggest holding is in Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ), with Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) and Qualcomm ( NASDAQ:QCOM ) coming in 3 and 4 respectively. SMH and MU are also in the top 10 holdings. If we draw a comparison to SOXX’s holdings, here we are: There is a bit of diversity between the top 10 holdings, so if you are big into the chip sector, this is definitely a must-add, in my opinion. It is on my 💰BUY💰 list. Procure Space ETF (AKA NASDAQ:UFO ) A very interesting ETF that bases itself with stocks that deal with space. I would absolutely love this ETF if it didn’t do the same thing as the MOON ETF, leading its holding with a company that should have gone bankrupt ages ago (aka Sirius XM). If you overlook that fact, the rest of the companies on this list are great and ones that I actually know a bit more intimately. NYSE:GRMN is a top one for me, as well as GSAT and IRDM. These are companies I really like. While AMEX:GSAT is kind of a non-mover, they are undergoing some major restructuring and redesigning of their infrastructure which investors are gaining increasingly more excited about. Same for $IRDM. The rest of the holdings are well-established companies, such as Viasat ( NASDAQ:VSAT ) and Dish ( NASDAQ:DISH ). Despite the Sirus XM thing, this is on my 💰BUY💰 list. U.S. Consumer Focused ETF by iShares (AKA AMEX:IEDI ) Hitting the markets in March of 2018, this is an ETF with its predominant holdings in consumer cyclicals. Its largest holdings comprise large retail names, such as Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ), Costco ( NASDAQ:COST ), and Target ( NYSE:TGT ), as well as many others! Its performance over the past trading year (252 days) has been approximately 6%. It's definitely an ETF I would keep my eyes on. It is on my 💰buy💰 list for the future as well. I just want to see how this giant monthly bear flag plays out 😉. First Trust Transportation ETF (AKA NASDAQ:FTXR ) Last but not least, we have FTXR. It’s a bit older, having hit the markets in 2016, but still new enough to include in this list. With its largest holdings being Divided between UNP, GM, UPS, F, and TSLA, it has a pretty solid holding in the transportation sector. Some notable mentions are a 4.33% holding in PCAR and a 4.21% holding in FDX. This is on my maybe list. I do like the holdings in Ford, UPS, FDX, and PCAR. It's definitely worth an addition to your watchlist, in my opinion! Concluding Remarks And that concludes the list of newly released ETFs that you may not have heard about! Hope you enjoyed reading. If you are interested in checking out the indicator, which allows you to: 👉 See the breakdown of ETF by top 10 holdings and by sector, 👉 Search for which ETFs hold your favorite tickers in their top 10, 👉 Search for ETFs by Sector and 👉 Search for ETFs by Interest You can click here to check it out! Thanks for reading and, as always, safe trades!
NASDAQ:UFO
by Steversteves
16
A Traders’ Playbook; 2024 a year of central bank easing With a new set of weekly candles to assess, we see the USD looking weak, with the greenback having fallen on the week against all G10 and EM currencies, bar the COP - the risk seems skewed for further downside in the buck. EURUSD closed above the former rising trend (drawn from the March lows) and targets 1.0960 (the 61.8 fibo of the July-Oct sell-off), with USDCHF looking to pull below 0.8850, which would keep the bearish trend intact. GBPUSD closed above the 200-day MA, where a break of 1.2500 takes us to 1.2560. USDSEK was the big percentage mover last week, and we look ahead at the Riksbank meeting where a 25bp hike is touch and go. USDCNH is starting to trend lower too, and eyes a break of 7.2000. The PBoC has made it clear that their preference is low volatility, and they have done a sensational job is just about killing off any pulse in the yuan - after trading a tight range since mid-August, will they now step in front of a weakening USD? The fate of the USD resides in the data flow and Fed speakers – so far there has been limited pushback to the 100bp cuts priced for 2024, with US swaps pricing the first ‘live’ FOMC meeting for May. Many will see this as too soon and too punchy, but the market is betting against higher-for-longer, which is also the case in Europe, the UK, Canada, NZ, and others, with the market seeing the ECB kick off an easing cycle in developed economies in April. Central bank easing is a theme that will be front of mind for 2024, with some debate as to why the markets are discounting such easing. The central thesis is that with absolute conviction inflation is heading towards target, labour markets cooling sufficiently and growth at far more subdued levels the need to take rates to a more equilibrium state and out of restrictive is the fundamental reasoning. It’s when the market discounts front-loaded cuts that we see easing as a function of recession hedges, where a central bank would need to get policy rates below inflation. If we look at forward rate differentials – we look at the difference between 1 or 2-year EUR forward rates and that of the US forward rates – we have seen no real skew for US rates to move more aggressively on a relative basis, which would justify the USD sell-off. However, clearly, the US CPI resonated, and the idea that the right-hand side (i.e., USD data is more exceptional than other countries) of the USD smile theory is losing USD support. One could argue that if we work off pure central bank divergence – which has been a profitable way to capture moves in exchange rates throughout 2022 and 2023 – that 2024 could be the year of the JPY. Life is rarely that simplistic though. In equity land, we see consolidation in US indices, and with one eye on moves in the US Treasury market as a guide, where a downside break in the 10yr of 4.37% would be helpful, we subsequently watch for an upside break of 16k in the NAS100 – Nvidia’s earnings could be key here. It’s the EU equity bourses where the momentum is right now, with the GER40, EUSTX50 and SPA35 in beast mode and swing traders will be looking for a pullback to initiate new longs into December. I was positioned for outperformance in Chinese/HK indices but that has been a poor call and I have moved to the sidelines on that, waiting for more constructive flows to be seen. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: OPEC meeting (26 Nov) – the alliance meets in Vienna and with Brent crude in a steep downtrend, and having fallen 20% from the Sept highs, there have been headlines of imminent additional supply cuts to be seen at this meeting. As we head into the weekend meeting, traders with crude exposures need to consider the potential gapping risk in crude. UK Autumn Statement (22 Nov) – Chancellor Hunt offers the autumn statement with talk the govt will focus heavily on imposing sanctions for people who claim benefits and encourage people to take up employment. It feels unlikely this will a vol event for the GBP, although traders will keep an eye out for any tangible fiscal measures that could stimulate growth. Nvidia 3Q earnings (report 21 Nov after-market) – the market looks for another big earnings report from the best performing US stock in 2023 – the market prices Nvidia’s implied move (derived from options pricing) at 7.1% on the day. The market will go into the report positioned for an upside surprise relative to consensus, with expectations that we see data centre sales of $15b. There will be a strong focus on guidance on the impact of US restrictions on AI chips to China and how this could impact data centre sales for 2025/26. The bulls will want to see a fourth consecutive share price increase on quarterly earnings and will naturally want to see a break of $500, which has kept a lid on the share price on seven occasions. US Thanksgiving holiday (23 Nov) – cash equities are closed, and futures have partial settlement. Economic data to navigate: • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate decision (20 Nov 12:15 AEDT) – while the market is on edge for further policy easing – notably for a further cut to banks Reserve Ratio Requirements – few expect a cut to the prime rate, with the 1-year rate expected to remain unchanged at 3.45% and the 5-year rate at 4.2%. • RBA meeting minutes (21 Nov 11:30 AEDT) - after hiking by 25bp I am not sure we’ll learn a lot of new intel from the minutes and traders are better listening to speeches from the RBA governor Bullock as the greater prospect of being an AUD vol event. • US leading Index (21 Nov 02:00) – the consensus is we see the leading index fall 0.7% in October – some have seen this data point as a precursor to recessionary conditions, so a big downside miss may impact the USD. • Canada CPI (22 Nov 00:30 AEDT) – the economist’s consensus is we see headline CPI at 3.1% yoy (from 3.8% yoy) and core CPI at 3.6% (3.8%). The expected drop in inflation justifies Canadian rates pricing with the first cut being priced for April 2024 and 64bp of cuts being priced over the coming 12 months. • US FOMC minutes (22 Nov 06:00 AEDT) – after the recent Fed chatter, notably from Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester (a known hawk), who failed to push back on market expectations for rate cuts and suggested the debate is now how long to keep rates restrictive, it’s hard to see the FOMC minutes being too much of a market mover. • US Durable Goods (23 Nov 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for -3.2% (from 4.6%). With US Q4 GDP running around 2.2%, a weak print here could see GDP Nowcast models being revised lower, which may see US bond yields pull lower and promote USD selling. • UK S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23 Nov 20:30 AEDT) – the consensus is for manufacturing to come in at 49.9 and services PMI 50.4 – A services print below 50 may see bond yields lower, which would drag down the USD. A Services print above 51.0 would revisit calls of US exceptionalism and promote USD buyers. • EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (23 Nov 20:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for manufacturing PMIs to improve modestly at 43.4 (from 43.1 in October), although that is still a woeful outcome. Services PMIs are eyed at 48.1, again a slight improvement from 47.8 – the EUR will be sensitive to the services print, where EU swaps markets price the first cut by the ECB in April and 86bp of cuts over the coming 12 months. • Sweden’s Riksbank meeting – it’s a lineball call on whether the Swedish central bank hike to 4.25%, with swaps pricing 11bp of hikes and 50% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg calling for a 25bp hike. We could see some vol in the SEK, so watch exposures. USDSEK has been in a strong downtrend, so the market is likely positioned long of SEKs going into the meeting. • US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (25 Nov 01:45 AEDT) – the market looks for the manufacturing index to come in at 49.9 (from 50.0) / and services at 50.3 (50.6) – we should see the USD, and risky assets more sensitive to the services print, and certainly if we see the index below 50.0 – the level where we see growth/decline from the prior month. Central bank speakers BoE – Gov Bailey speaks (21 Nov 05:45 AEDT) ECB – 10 speakers – Schnabel (22 Nov 04:00 AEDT) and Lagarde (22 Nov 03:00) get centre focus RBA – Gov Bullock speaks (Monday 10:00 AEDT & Tuesday 19:35)
Long
by Pepperstone
10
SPX Oil Gold and Yields - Weekly preview 4400 is the level bulls want to hold on any pullback for spx, whether it comes next week or not is hard to say. IWM and DJT are not confirming an upward bias on the weekly chart yet, so it's possible they are saying something that most are not hearing. Gold and Silver both hard to tell what's going to happen right now, so waiting I'm for a confirming move up or down. Oil is at strong technical support, thus the bounce today. I think it goes higher, but it needs to take out 80 for the bulls to start gaining control. TYX (Yields) will probably get to the gap area near 5 at some point soon.... Good luck and have a wonderful weekend
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by the_sunship
18
Learning from Warren Buffett's 7 Major Investment ErrorsWarren Buffett's name resonates with success, particularly through investments in renowned companies such as Coca-Cola, American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Moody’s, Kraft Heinz, and more. He stands as a global icon, amassing a wealth exceeding USD 100 billion. Beyond his investment prowess, Buffett generously imparts his wisdom to millions worldwide. Among his many famous quotes, one emphasizes the importance of learning from others' mistakes. Warren Buffett's 7 Major Investment Errors I) Dexter Shoe Company - In 1993, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway acquired Dexter Shoe Company, a decision he later regretted as his worst deal. Buffet made multiple significant mistakes in this acquisition. - The first error was misjudging Dexter's potential. Berkshire bought Dexter due to its high return on capital employed but failed to consider the competitive threat posed by cheap shoes from countries like China. Buffet acknowledged this oversight in 1999, highlighting the increasing challenge for domestic producers in the face of a market flooded with 93% of 1.3 billion pairs of shoes purchased in the United States coming from abroad. - The primary lesson here is the necessity of assessing a company's durable competitive advantage before investing. Durable competitiveness has transitioned from a good-to-have factor to a must-have for any business. - Buffet's second mistake was financing the Dexter Shoe Company purchase with Berkshire Hathaway stock valued at 433 million dollars, rather than using cash. A single share of Berkshire's Class A stock was approximately USD 15,000 in 1993. Today, it is valued at USD 517,000. - This decision didn't just cost Berkshire shareholders USD 433 million for a company that eventually became worthless; it resulted in a staggering loss of 15 billion dollars for Berkshire's shareholders. - The crucial lesson derived from this experience is never to sacrifice successful investments to make risky bets. II) Tesco - Tesco, a British grocery chain, became a concern for Berkshire Hathaway when the company's ownership stake exceeded 5% by 2012. By 2013, signs of trouble at Tesco became evident, leading Berkshire to reduce its stake to 3.7%, amounting to an investment of nearly 1.7 billion dollars. - In the subsequent months, Tesco's stock plummeted by nearly 50% due to declining sales, heightened competition from discount retailers, and an accounting scandal that attracted scrutiny from the UK's financial regulators. - Buffett's mistake lay in hesitating to sell Tesco stocks despite recognizing these troubling signs. This delay resulted in a loss of approximately USD 444 million for Berkshire. - The crucial lesson from this situation is the importance of conviction when making selling decisions. Just as one should invest with conviction, it is equally vital not to hold onto a stock if confidence in its performance wavers . III) Energy Future Holdings - Warren Buffett, known for seeking advice from Charlie Munger in his investment decisions, openly admitted a significant mistake in his 2013 letter. He invested USD 2.1 billion in bonds of Energy Future Holdings Corporation, banking on rising natural gas prices to boost the competitiveness of the coal-based business and yield profits. - Unfortunately, natural gas prices plummeted from their 2007 levels, leading to substantial losses for Energy Future Holdings. The company declared bankruptcy in 2014, and Berkshire Hathaway sold the bonds at a loss of USD 873 million in 2013. - Buffett acknowledged his error in assessing the transaction's gain-loss probabilities, emphasizing the importance of seeking a second opinion from trusted advisors or partners when making significant decisions. - This incident highlights two essential lessons. Firstly, it underscores the risks associated with predicting market trends, whether in natural gas, oil, gold, or individual stocks. Secondly, it emphasizes the perilous nature of investing in high-yield "junk" bonds. While conglomerates like Berkshire Hathaway can absorb losses from such high-risk endeavors, retail investors face financial disaster in the event of a default. Hence, it is crucial to avoid instruments with questionable return on capital, especially in a retail investor's context. IV) Lubrizol & David Sokol In 2011, Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway faced severe scrutiny. - David Sokol, chairman of several Berkshire subsidiaries, recommended Lubrizol Corporation as a potential acquisition to Buffett while he himself owned stocks in the company. Sokol's failure to disclose his stock ownership violated Berkshire's insider trading rules. Despite this, Berkshire acquired Lubrizol for approximately USD 9 billion, and Sokol profited around USD 3 million from the transaction. - Upon investigation, it became clear that Sokol had been ambiguous about how he acquired Lubrizol stock, neglecting to mention that he purchased shares after meeting with the bankers proposing the acquisition. Buffett emphasized the issue as a matter of ethics, although he initially acknowledged that no one was at fault. - This situation highlighted the importance of not being excessively trusting in the business world. The lesson here is to maintain a checklist, follow a rigorous process, and be unafraid to ask numerous questions, especially when your reputation is at stake. Taking extra precautions becomes essential in preserving one's integrity and credibility. V) Amazon - Up until now, the mistakes we've discussed were all instances of active decisions leading to losses. However, there's a different kind of mistake made by Buffett that falls more under the category of missed opportunities. - In 2017, Buffett openly admitted that he had been observing Amazon.com for an extended period but never invested in it. In his own words, he confessed, “I was too dumb to realize. I did not think Jeff Bezos could succeed on the scale he has.” - Buffett had underestimated Amazon's brilliance in two key areas: its dominance in e-commerce and its success in cloud services through Amazon Web Services. - Buffett's traditional approach didn't align with investing in stocks with high price-earning ratios like Amazon's in 2019. Moreover, he tended to overlook technology companies, considering them beyond his expertise. - In this context, the significant cost of this missed opportunity becomes apparent. It underscores the necessity of having a well-defined area of expertise. However, it's even more crucial to continuously expand and evolve that expertise over time to seize valuable opportunities. VI) Google - The Berkshire Hathaway portfolio notably lacks any shares from Alphabet or Google, a fact that Warren Buffett deeply laments. - Google initially piqued Buffett's interest due to a Berkshire-owned subsidiary, GEICO, operating in the auto insurance sector. GEICO heavily depends on Google's advertising platform to attract customers. - Buffett acknowledges that he should have delved deeper into Google's business and long-term prospects. His limited technical understanding might have played a role in missing this opportunity, despite it being right within his immediate purview. VII) Berkshire Hathaway - It might surprise you, but Warren Buffett's most significant investment blunder occurred when he bought Berkshire Hathaway in 1962. Back then, Berkshire Hathaway was a struggling textile business, meeting the criteria of Benjamin Graham's cigar-butt investing model. - Buffett became intrigued by the favorable financial assessment and started purchasing the stock in installments. In 1964, the company's owner, Seabury Stanton, proposed buying Buffett's shares at $11.50 per share. However, the actual offer received was $11.32, which angered Buffett. In retaliation, he acquired a controlling stake in Berkshire Hathaway and ousted Stanton from the company. - Despite taking revenge, Buffett found himself stuck with a significant investment in a failing business. To this day, he considers it his most regrettable investment. He endured the burden of this failing textile business for an additional 20 years. Buffett admits that had he redirected the cashflows into other ventures like insurance companies, Berkshire would have been worth twice as much as it is now. - By his estimations, Buffett's decision to invest in Berkshire Hathaway amounted to a $200 billion mistake. The lesson here is clear: emotional decisions have no place in successful investing. Thank you @Money_Dictators
TVC:DJI
by Money_Dictators
32
Wholesale Inflation Posts Its Biggest Decline in Over Three YearA powerful one-two combination of data pointing to softening inflation is continuing to support investor sentiment and a strong equity rally with Producer Price data this morning showing weaker-than-expected price increases among wholesalers. The data follows yesterday’s release of the Consumer Price Index, which showed no m/m change. Stocks are also gaining additional support from data this morning depicting declining retail sales, which equity players are perceiving as disinflationary rather than contractionary. Markets are bifurcated today, however, with yields and the dollar higher, as bond and currency traders pare back some of yesterday’s bonanza. Consumers Rein in Spending The U.S. Commerce Department reported this morning that retail sales declined sharply in October, as consumer spending slowed from the third quarter’s blistering pace. The resumption of student loan repayments definitely had an adverse impact, as a portion of wages were allocated to debt service rather than consumption. Retail sales declined 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) in October, the first decline since March. October’s figure arrived better than the -0.3% projection, however, while slipping from September’s 0.9% growth rate. Retail sales excluding automobiles and excluding automobiles and gasoline rose 0.1% on both fronts, worse than the 0.8% figures from September. Sales Contraction is Broad Based Seven out of thirteen categories contracted during the period, with the following categories experiencing the noted m/m declines: Furniture showrooms, 2% Miscellaneous stores, 1.7% Automobile dealerships, 1% Sporting goods retailers, 0.8% Building materials shops, gasoline stations and general merchandise also had declines but of lesser degrees. Gains were led by health and personal retailers, with sales increasing 1.1%. Other categories produced the following increases: Grocery stores, 0.6% Electronics and appliances retailers, 0.6% Dining establishments, 0.3% Ecommerce, 0.2% The apparel category was flat. Wholesalers Hit with Price Declines Wholesale inflation cratered at its fastest rate since the depths of the pandemic in April 2020. October’s Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 0.5% m/m, less than projections of a 0.1% increase and September’s 0.4% growth rate. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged and weaker than the 0.3% estimated and the previous month’s 0.2%. On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, headline and core producer prices rose 1.3% and 2.4%, compared to the previous period’s 2.2% and 2.7%. Leading the wholesale price decline were a 6.5% drop in energy products, a 0.7% decline in trade services and a 0.2% contraction in food. Transportation and warehousing wholesale prices rose at a sharp 1.5% rate, meanwhile. Services overall came in unchanged m/m while goods excluding food and energy rose 0.1% during the period. Equities Gain, but Positive Sentiment Eases Optimism sparked by yesterday’s CPI and this morning’s PPI appears to be easing, with stocks off their highs of the day while yields and the dollar have given back a good chunk of Monday’s gains. Still, all major U.S. equity indices are higher, with the small-cap Russell 2000 leading, having gained 0.8% while the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial indices are higher by 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.2%. Sectoral breadth remains impressive, with all sectors higher while the defensive health care and utilities sectors are 0.1% and 0.4% lower. Leading the sectors are materials and consumer staples, with each gaining 0.6% as technology looks tired from its recent monster run. Indeed, to secure more gains going forward, the market will need to broaden out and begin to exhibit momentum in cyclical and value stocks. The dollar and yields are higher, with the 2- and 10-year Treasury maturities up 8 and 10 basis points (bps) to 4.92% and 4.55% while the greenback’s index is up 22 bps to 104.30. The dollar is gaining relative to the euro, yen and pound sterling while it loses ground versus the franc, yuan and Aussie and Canadian dollars. Crude oil is down 1.3% or $1.02 to $77.14 per barrel in response to the Energy Information Administration reporting a 17-million-barrel inventory increase in the U.S. over two weeks. Buoyant supply, continued concerns about weakening demand and waning worries over a potential escalation of the Middle East crisis are weighing on the commodity’s price. Consumers Cut Spending and Seek Bargains Target’s third-quarter results illustrate how consumers are cutting back on discretionary purchases while results for TJX highlight how consumers are increasingly turning to off-price retailers for low-cost items. At Target, comparable sales, which is derived from stores operating for 12 months or more and online channels, fell 4.9% during the third quarter. It was the second-consecutive quarter of declining same-store sales. On a y/y basis, the company’s revenues dropped from $26.5 billion to $25.4 billion, a 4.3% contraction. The result, however, exceeded the $24.24 billion anticipated by the analyst consensus. On another positive note, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) of $2.10 exceeded the consensus expectation of $1.48 and increased from $1.54 in the year ago quarter. The quarter was impacted by Target aggressively discounting merchandise as it sought to reduce an inventory glut, a strong trend among retailers. Target also attributed its third-quarter earnings growth to improved sales of “high-frequency items” such as groceries and beauty items, the addition of a new line of trendy kitchenware, and other new items. Target also said it has continued to reduce its inventory which as of the end of the third quarter was down 14% y/y. TJX, which operates discount retailers T.J. Maxx, HomeGoods and Marshall’s, raised its full-year guidance and said its third-quarter results benefited from capturing market share as its off-price stores attracted cost-conscious consumers. The company expects to generate a full-year EPS of $3.71 to $3.74, up from its earlier guidance of $3.66 to $3.72. TJX expects same store sales to increase 4% to 5%, an increase from its earlier guidance of 3% to 4%. During the third quarter, its sales revenue of $13.27 billion jumped approximately 9% from the $12.17 billion generated by the company in the year-ago period. Analysts expected $13.09 billion. Its overall same-store sales, furthermore, climbed 6%. TJX also posted an EPS of $1.03, which climbed significantly from $0.91 in the year-ago period. The recent quarter EPS exceeded the analyst consensus expectation of $0.99. In addition to benefiting from shoppers seeking bargains, TJX is also benefiting from its suppliers having excess inventory. The company provides discount prices by acquiring surplus items that retailers are removing from their inventories. Washington Makes Progress of Avoiding Government Shutdown In Washington, the House of Representatives appears to have avoided a government shutdown by passing a plan that will extend government funding until early next year. The measure is expected to be approved by the Senate and was passed by the lower chamber even though, it delays political battles over spending for border security and the Ukraine-Russia War while failing to make budget cuts in other areas of government spending. The House Freedom Caucus opposed the continuing spending resolution because it doesn’t include budget cuts and address border issues. The Balancing Act Today’s weak economic data highlights an important consideration going forward. Is data decelerating slow enough to be supportive of a soft landing, or is activity falling sharply and more consistent with recessionary conditions? The question is of the essence for capital markets as we operate within late-cycle monetary policy tightening, the riskiest juncture. While the former case would be supportive of current earnings estimates, the latter case would certainly point to projections falling from the $240 expected in 2024 for the S&P 500.
SP:SPX
by IBKR
12
New Chips From Nvidia! Another growth cycle for the stock?Nvidia Corp unveiled its new H200 Tensor Core GPU yesterday, 13 November 2023. This chip boasts a 60-90% productivity increase compared to current models, with Nvidia's main competitors still in the process of developing analogs. The H200 Tensor Core is scheduled for general sale in Q2 2024. It may lead to a future rise in revenue and net profit of the issuer. Consequently, today, our focus is on the Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock chart. On the D1 timeframe, support has formed at 398.80, but resistance has not yet developed. Following a prolonged growth cycle, a correction to 476.52 is most likely. On the H1 timeframe, if the asset's upward trend persists, a short-term target for a price increase might be around 502.67. In the medium term, the target for a price increase could hover around 532.55. — Ideas and other content presented on this page should not be considered as guidance for trading or an investment advice. RoboMarkets bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading opinions described in these analytical reviews. The material presented and the information contained herein is for information purposes only and in no way should be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law L. 87(I)/2017 of the Republic of Cyprus or any other form of personal advice or recommendation, which relates to certain types of transactions with certain types of financial instruments. Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.85% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by RoboMarkets
18
$QQQ: Long term trend turning up?A pattern similar to the one that took place after the 2003 and 2009 bottoms is surfacing in mega cap tech and in index charts now... Low risk buy signal suggesting we might get a substantial rally from here within the coming months, but potentially also for a couple years if the quarterly chart triggers here. This quarterly signal is visible in names like NASDAQ:AAPL and NASDAQ:MSFT , to name a few, so I think it will also trigger here. It also comes on the heels of rates potentially having peaked for the time being, and the Dollar turning down after rallying substantially as of late. And after Oil has come down off the highs, which gives the market a bullish boost with some lag...it will be visible in the next quarterly report or two. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan 'risk on' Labrie.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by IvanLabrie
22
Primer on Crude Oil Crack SpreadEver dreamt of being an oil refiner? Fret not. You can operate a virtual refinery using a combination of energy derivatives that replicates oil refiner returns. Crude oil is the world’s most traded commodity. Oil consumption fuels the global economy. Crude is refined into gasoline and distillates. Refining is the process of cracking crude into its usable by-products. Gross Processing Margin (GPM) guides refineries to modulate their output. Crack spread defines GPM in oil refining. This primer provides an overview of factors affecting the crack spread. It delves into the mechanics of harnessing refining spread gains using CME suite of energy products. UNPACKING THE CRACK SPREAD Crack spread is the difference between price of outputs (gasoline & distillate prices) and the inputs (crude oil price). Cracking is an industry term pointing to breaking apart crude oil into its component products. Portfolio managers can use CME energy futures to gain exposure to the GPM for US refiners. CME offers contracts that provide exposure to WTI Crude Oil ( CL ) as well as the most liquid refined product contracts namely NY Harbor ULSD ( HO ) and RBOB Gasoline ( RB ). Crude Prices Crude oil prices play a significant role in determining the crack spread. Refining profitability is directly impacted by crude oil price volatility which is influenced by geopolitics, supply-demand dynamics, and macroeconomic conditions. Higher oil prices lead to a narrowing crack spread. Lower crude prices result in wider margins. Expectedly, one leg of the crack spread comprises of crude oil. Gasoline Prices Gasoline is arguably the most important refined product of crude oil. Gasoline is not a direct byproduct of the distillation process. It is a blend of distilled products that provides the most consistent motor fuel. Gasoline prices at the pump in the US vary by region. Price differs due to differences in state taxes, distance from supply sources, competition among gasoline retailers, operating costs in the region, and state-specific regulations. CME’s RBOB Gasoline contract provides exposure to Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB). It is procured by local retailers, who blend in their own additives and sell the final product at pumps. RBOB is blended with ethanol to create reformulated gasoline. It produces less smog than other blends. Consequently, it is mandated by about 30% of the US market. RBOB price is thus representative of US gasoline demand. Each CME RBOB Gasoline contract provides exposure to 42,000 gallons. It is quoted in gallons instead of barrels. The contract size is equivalent to one thousand barrels like the crude oil contract. Distillate Prices Distillate or Heating Oil is another important refined product of crude oil. Distillate is used to make jet fuel and diesel. Demand for distillate products is distinct from gasoline demand. A substantial portion of the North-East US lack adequate connection to natural gas. Hence, the region depends on HO for energy during winters making HO sensitive to weather. CME NY Harbor ULSD contract ("ULSD”) provides exposure to 42,000 gallons of Ultra-low sulphur diesel which is a type of HO. ULSD contract is also equivalent to one thousand barrels. Chart: ULSD Price Performance Over the Last Twenty Years. TRADING THE CRACK SPREAD The crack spread can be expressed using the above contracts in three distinct ways: 1) 1:1 SPREAD This spread consists of a single contract of CL on one leg and a single contract of one of the refined products on the other. This spread helps traders to express their view on the relationship between single type of refined product against crude oil. It is useful when price of one of the refined products diverges from crude oil prices. 1:1 spread is also useful when there are distinct conditions affecting each of the refined products. 2) 3:2:1 SPREAD This spread consists of (3 contracts of CL) on one leg and (2 contracts RBOB + 1 contract of ULSD) on the other leg. The entire position thus consists of six contracts. It assumes that three barrels of crude can be used to create two barrels of RBOB and one barrel of HO. This trade is better at capturing the actual refining margin. It is commonly used by refiners to hedge their market exposure to crude and refined products. 3:2:1 spread is used by investors to express views on conditions affecting refineries. 3) 5:3:2 SPREAD Spread consists of (5 contracts of CL) on one leg and (3 contracts of RBOB + 2 contracts of heating oil) on the other leg. This spread captures the actual proportions from the refining process. However, it is much more capital-intensive. FACTORS IMPACTING CRACK SPREAD Seasonality, supply-demand dynamics, and inventory levels collectively impact crack spreads. Seasonality Mint Finance covered seasonal factors affecting crude oil prices in a previous paper . In that paper, we described that crude seasonality is influenced by variation in refined products demand. In summer, gasoline demand is higher, and, in the winter, distillate demand is higher. Seasonal price performance of the three contracts is distinct leading to a unique seasonal variation in various crack spreads. Summary performance of the three spreads is provided below. Chart: Seasonal price performance of Crude, its refined products, and their spread (excluding years 2008, 2009 and 2020 in which extreme price moves were observed) Refiners strategically time their operations based on seasonal trends, ramping up refinery capacity ahead of peak demand in summer and winter. This involves building up inventories to meet anticipated high demand. However, this preparation often results in a narrowed spread just before peak utilization. As the spread reaches its lowest point, refiners take capacity offline for maintenance. Subsequently, crack margins begin to expand as refined product supplies dwindle, aligning with decreased crude oil consumption. This results in a gradually increasing spread through high consumption periods. Supply/Inventories Supply and inventories of crude oil and refined products influence crack spreads. When inventories of refined products remain elevated, their prices decline narrowing the spread. When the production and inventory of crude oil is elevated, its price declines leading to a widening spread. On the contrary, low inventories of refined products can lead to a wider crack spread and low inventories of crude oil leads to a narrower crack spread. Demand Refinery demand has a self-balancing effect as higher refining requires higher consumption of crude which acts to increase crude oil prices. Demand for crude oil and refined products is broadly correlated. However, there are often periods when demand diverges on a short-term scale. Economic activity and available supplies drive demand for refined products. During periods of high economic growth, refined product consumption is robust pushing their price higher. Demand for refined products can precede or lag demand for crude oil from seasonal as well as trend-based factors. This lag can be identified using the crack spread. Sharp moves in crack spread pre-empt moves in the underlying which act to normalize the spread. CURRENT CONDITIONS There are two trends defining the crack spread currently: 1) Divergence in demand & inventories of gasoline and distillates: Low demand for gasoline is evident due to expectations of an economic slowdown while gasoline inventories remain elevated. Though, distillate consumption remains high as inventories are declining and lower than the 5-year average range. Chart: Divergence in inventories of distillate and gasoline (Source – EIA 1 , 2 ). Moreover, inventories of gasoline and distillates are higher than usual. Both factors together have led to a gloomy outlook for refined product demand. Gasoline stocks have started to increase while distillate stocks are still declining. When refined product inventories are elevated investors can position short on the crack spread in anticipation of ample supply. Conversely, if refined product inventories are low, investors can position long on the crack spread. Chart: Divergence in refined product inventories in US (gasoline rising and distillate declining). 2) Declining crude price and tight supplies: In September, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced supply cuts extending into January. Globally, this led to a supply deficit of crude oil. Supplies of crude in the US was particularly stressed as refiners increased utilization to build up inventories while margins were high and exacerbated by a pipeline outage. Chart: Crude Oil inventories in US have stabilized in September and October. Following increase in oil prices, refining activity has slowed, and supplies have become more stable. When inventories of crude are stable or elevated, it indicates less demand from refiners. Investors can opt to position long on the crack spread anticipating ample crude supply. Chart: US Refinery Utilization and Crude Inputs have slowed in October. Although, crude oil supply cuts from Saudi are going to continue until January 2024, there is no longer a deficit as consumption has slowed down. Together, both trends have caused a sharp collapse in the crack spread. Value of the 3:2:1 crack spread has declined by 50% over the past month. Prices of refined products have been affected more negatively by low demand than crude oil. Inventories and supply situation for refined products is more secure than crude oil. Still, seasonal trends suggest an expansion in crack spread once refined product inventories start to be depleted. HARNESSING GAINS FROM CHANGES IN CRACK SPREAD Two hypothetical trade setups are described below which can be used to take positions on the crack spread based on assessment of current conditions. LONG 3:2:1 SPREAD Based on (a) sharp decline in crack spread which is likely to revert, and (b) seasonal trend pointing to increase in the crack spread, investors can take a long position in the crack spread. This consists of: • Long position in 2 x RBF2024 and 1 x HOF2024 • Short position in 3 x CLF2024 The position profits when: 1) Price of RBOB and ULSD rise faster than Crude. 2) Price of Crude declines faster than RBOB and ULSD. The position looses when: 1) Price of Crude rises faster than RBOB and ULSD. 2) Price of RBOB and ULSD declines faster than Crude. • Entry: 63.81 • Target: 79.12 • Stop Loss: 55.73 • Profit at Target: USD 45,930 ((Target-Entry) x 1000 x 3) • Loss at Stop: USD 24,240 ((Stop-Entry) x 1000 x 3) • Reward/Risk: 1.89x LONG 1:1 HEATING OIL SPREAD Based on relative bullishness in distillate inventories plus stronger seasonal demand for distillates during winter, margins for refining heating oil will likely rise faster than gasoline refining margins. Focusing the expanding crack margin on a 1:1 heating oil margin spread can lead to a stronger payoff. This position consists of Long 1 x HOF2024 and Short 1 x CLF2024 . The position profits when: 1) Price of ULSD rises faster than Crude. 2) Price of Crude declines faster than ULSD. The position will endure losses when: 1) Price of Crude rises faster than ULSD. 2) Price of ULSD declines faster than Crude. • Entry: 36.15 • Target: 42.79 • Stop Loss: 32.3 • Profit at Target: USD 6,640 ((Target-Entry) x 1000) • Loss at Stop: USD 3,850 ((Stop-Entry) x 1000) • Reward/Risk: 1.72x KEY TAKEAWAYS Crack spread refers to the gross processing margin of refining (“cracking”) crude oil into its by-products. Refined products RBOB and ULSD can be traded on the CME as separate commodities. Both are representative of demand for crude oil from distinct sources. There are three types of crack spread: 1:1, 3:2:1, and 5:3:2. a. 1:1 can be used to express views on the relationship between one of the refined products and crude. b. 3:2:1 can be used to express views on the refining margin of refineries. c. 5:4:3 can give a more granular view of proportions of refined products produced at refineries but is far more capital-intensive. Crack spreads are affected by seasonality, supply, and inventory levels of crude and refined products, as well as demand for each refined product. A low-demand outlook for refined products of crude is prevalent due to expectations of an economic slowdown. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.sweetlogin.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by mintdotfinance
12
Gold: Shining Bright with OpportunitiesGold is once again in the spotlight, and here’s why! Economic Cycles, PMI & Gold The US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a leading indicator often used to identify turns in the economic cycle. A below 50 PMI print indicates contraction in the US manufacturing cycle, while a print above 50 suggests expansion. Generally speaking, expanding manufacturing cycles spell a boost for industrial materials, like copper, while contractionary periods spell downturns in the economy and a preference for 'flight to safety', boosting gold holdings. An interesting observation from the chart above is the correlation between the Gold/Copper ratio and the inverted US PMI, moving in tandem over the last decade. However, looking at the current scenario, the PMI has turned lower, yet the Gold/Copper ratio has remained relatively muted, suggesting that gold may currently be underpriced. Similarly, the Gold/Silver ratio shows a less pronounced but similar effect. Significant drops in the PMI below the 50 level have historically triggered notable increases in the Gold/Copper ratio. With the PMI currently below 50 for a sustained period, this might be priming the ratio for a potential upward surge. Yields, Fed Expectation & Gold As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold loses its appeal when interest rates rise, leading investors to prefer interest-yielding products. We covered the effect of a Fed rate cut on gold in a previous article here . While the Fed remains steadfast in holding rates, even the act of pausing rate hikes positively impacts gold. This effect is observed via the Gold/US10Y Yields ratio. The previous pause in rate hikes preceded a significant run-up in this ratio. Additionally, this ratio is currently near its resistance level, which it has respected multiple times over the last decade. With the Fed expected to continue holding rates, now could be an opportune time to consider adding gold to your portfolio. Gold Price Action Gold’s current price action also shows a completed cup-and-handle pattern. With an initial attempt to break higher halted, it now trades right above the handle. Additionally, gold could arguably be trading in an ascending triangle pattern, as noted by its price action as well as generally declining volume, potentially signaling a bullish continuation pattern. In summary, given the Fed's stance on holding rates, the correlation between PMI and the Gold/Copper ratio, and the bullish technical indicators in gold's price action, a positive outlook on gold seems reasonable. To express our view, we can buy the CME Gold Futures at the current level of 1962. Using the cup and handle pattern to guide the take profit level, at 2400 and stop at 1890. Each 0.10 point move in gold futures is for 10 USD. The same view can also be expressed with greater precision using the CME Micro Gold contract where the notional is one-tenth of the regular size gold contract. Here, each 0.10 point move is for 1 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.sweetlogin.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
9
Bitcoin - A Small Or Big Pullback?Bitcoin has had an explosive month of price discovery, as over the course of the last four weeks we've climbed above our previous consolidation range and reached new yearly highs. Data from Glassnode indicates that we are still in the third wave of investor accumulation. Research has shown that in all previous market cycles, there was a pattern of Bitcoin accumulation. 1. The first wave occurs shortly after the All-Time High of Bitcoin in a Market Cycle, when price rapidly moves away (down) from that high level. 2. The second wave occurs during the depths of the Bear Market, when the price floor for that cycle is being discovered and tested. 3. Third third wave occurs after the cycle bottom, when prices begin ticking up in anticipation of the Bitcoin halving. It's important to note that in the last market cycle, there was a significant correction following the third wave of accumulation, which ultimately led to prices trending down until March of that year of the halving. Bitcoin has currently reached a High-Volume Node on our Volume Profile, indicating that this is an area of heavy potential supply or selling pressure. Our Senior Analyst Alexander had originally called for a $35,000 top for Bitcoin prices in 2023. Putting this together, we notice that a large gap was created in Bitcoin's price movement over the last four weeks. We anticipate a good chance for a short-term reversal to re-visit those price levels. This will give us an opportunity to gauge whether: 1. Bitcoin establishes previous resistance as support, and ranges in anticipation of a further breakout. 2. Bitcoin fails to establish previous resistance as support, and decisively breaks back down into a previous trading range. Conservative traders can consider taking profits on BTC long positions, and waiting for confirmation of flipped resistance before establishing a new tranche of long interest. Should Bitocin break previous resistance, we reccomend short-selling positions into the end of the year and potentially much of Q1 '24. Aggressive traders can also consider taking profits on BTC long positions, and establishing short-positions early, whether just for the re-test of the Fair-Value Gap, or to attempt to time the big swing of Bitcoin's correction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CrackingCryptocurrency
27
Microsoft Bullish Cup and Handle Microsoft - NASDAQ:MSFT A bullish monthly and weekly chart: ✅Monthly MACD Cross ✅ Long Term parallel channel intact ✅ Above 200 day & week MA ✅ Cup and Handle (with a high handle - Preferred) ✅ Good Risk: Reward Ratio at 7.6 (51%+ vs -7% loss) ⚠️ Stop loss levels on chart 🫡 A great set up. Those that are patient could wait for a potential pull back (arrow on chart) as we are reaching into overbought levels on the RSI on the weekly. It would not be unusual for Microsoft to pull back 5-8%. The R:R would be significantly improved if you waited and if it led to an entry from approx. $350 (after a 5-8% pull back), this would line up with the 200 DSMA also. However there are no guarantees of a pull back. Those half as cautious could enter half a position here and see what happens and place another entry at $350. All in all the $330 - 335 red box area on the chart is an absolute stop loss level. If this level is lost I would be out of the trade fast. So you have options with this set up: 1) Entry here with a tight 7% stop. 2) Half a position here and half at approx. $350 with a stop at $335. 3) You wait for $350 and you place your stop at $330. These all result in a similar loss of 5 - 7% in the event the trade fails. The upside potential is always 50%+. You can always cut early also at target one and take something at the 26% profit level. It important you take full responsibility for your trade, position accordingly and be ok with the small 5-7% loss as it will likely happen, we are only leaning on the probability that maybe 60-70% of the time these trade set up provide us the return we want. I have not really ventured into the earnings or dividends however they are both positive contributors to this trade as earnings have been excellent and dividends whilst minimal, are dividends at the end of the day. We are here for the trade and play a set up off the chart. The fundamental's are just nice framing for the stock in our minds eye. PUKA
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by PukaCharts
38
Meta Might Break OutMeta Platforms has consolidated for several months, but now the social-media giant could be attempting a breakout. The first pattern on today’s chart is the $328 level. It was the high on February 2, 2022, immediately before the stock’s biggest drop ever. (The selloff was prompted at that time by weak results and business challenges involving Apple.) META tested that zone on October 11-12 before pulling back. But last week it returned to close slightly above it for the first time. Remaining here or continuing higher may confirm a breakout. Second, a series of higher weekly lows may suggest longer-term buyers are active. Third, the stock has danced around its 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). However the faster SMA remains above the slower one, a potential sign that the longer-term trend is still bullish. They’re also above the 200-day SMA. Finally, you have fundamentals. META’s earnings, revenue and users topped estimates on October 25. The stock initially fell on worries that violence in the Middle East could hurt advertising. That may create potential for buyers to come off the sidelines if worst-case scenarios don’t pan out. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:META
by TradeStation
8
If you could only use one indicator, what would you pick?Here's a question for you: pretend that you can only use one indicator from now until the end of time. What indicator would you pick? Write it in the comments below. Don't worry, this is just a hypothetical question. 🤗 The comments should make for a fascinating read for all of us. Remember: pick only one indicator and that's it. Bonus points if you provide a little explanation about that indicator and why it matters to you. In doing so, you may help some traders discover a new indicator for their needs. So, let's hear it! Write your single favorite indicator, one that you could use forever, in the comments below!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
405
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsIn this video, we delve into the recent surge in gold prices, driven by a combination of factors. On Friday, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields experienced a decline following disappointing U.S. jobs data, solidifying expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt its interest rate hikes. The October job growth figures fell short of economists' projections, with only 150,000 jobs added compared to the anticipated 180,000. Additionally, wage inflation cooled, indicating a potential easing in labor market conditions. It is crucial to note that if the labor market continues to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve will be unable to maintain its hawkish stance. This data reinforces the notion of a Fed pause, which has contributed to the rise in gold prices. Furthermore, the dollar index (.DXY) experienced a 1% drop, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields reached a low not seen in over a month, further bolstering gold's appeal. In light of the ongoing Middle East conflict, investors are now pricing in a 95% chance that the U.S. central bank will keep interest rates unchanged in December, compared to the previous 80% prior to the release of this data. These insights are based on the CME FedWatch tool. XAUUSD Technical Analysis: In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities. The $2,010 zone will remain our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then the breakout/retest of this zone will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if selling pressure persists below $2,010 just as it had done in the last 5 months, we could witness renewed selling pressure back into the demand zone at the $1,900 zone. Dive into the latest Gold market dynamics! Discover how escalating Middle East tensions and renewed decline in 10-year Treasury yields and their impact. Stay informed for strategic investment decisions. #GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets #USDebt 📺🔔💼 Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
14
History is Repeating Itself, Just FasterA little brief before I start into this. I got started investing prior to the 1987 stock market crash and have always been amazed at the stock market for what it can do in a short period of time. People experience the market in so many different ways and I was fascinated by the mass-hysteria, psychology, economics and politics that surrounded the entire 1987 crash. I will say that since I experienced the crash of 1987 and there has still been nothing like it since. The flash crashes, the GFC and many other "sharp drops" are nothing like the speed and power and dislocation of the 1987 crash. So, with that in mind, here is a pattern to compare the 2020 crash with the 1987 crash in context to the massive upwave from 1974-2000 and 2007. So, to begin, the 1987 crash lines up with the 2020 crash when you use the 1974 low as a comparison to the 2009 low. Then, as life has it, things happen a little faster so this pattern speeds up a little. You can copy it yourself, just then line up the 1987 crash to the 2020 crash. And here we are, right on track. Post-1987 crash the world was a very scary place in so many ways. It was actually quite scary. The banking system was falling apart because of the 1986 tax law change which bankrupted the S&L's to the biggest bailout in US history. George Bush Sr, was president and he was very similar to Biden, making mistakes domestically and internationally. He started up the Drug War which destroyed civil liberties in so many ways, much like the draconian lockdowns for Covid. I did put this long term forecast on long term charts years back here at TradingView so you can review those. This would have been good to have right in front of us before. I missed that chance. Reagan had one good term before he had trouble with Iran-Contra funding by selling drugs to finance wars in foreign countries. 1985-1987 was a bad time with trade frictions with Germany and Japan due to a strong dollar and major tax law changes which destroyed real estate, much like 2007 led to the 2009 GFC. Then we had Bush follow Reagan and he wasn't effective as a leader. His famous "Read my lips, no new taxes" happened right before he raised taxes Sadly, we then had Clinton come in and take over for 8 years and his first attack was on health care, which ended badly but moved him to be more centrist. Al Gore as VP helped to foster internet growth with tax advantages and boom, we had the technology boom leading into the bubble of 2000. So, the future should write itself from here. Let's look ahead to 1992-2000 ahead with 1993-1994 being a sideways grind with a giant short squeeze in T-Bonds bankrupting Orange County and knocking Long Term Capital Mgmt (hedge fund) to its knees. More correlations to follow and hopefully we have a new technology like the internet was at that time, to drive accelerating growth. It could be the electrification of vehicles and transportation for its massively more efficient energy consumption. Time will tell! Enjoy. Tim November 8, 2023 11:17AM EST
SP:SPXLong
by timwest
79