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Unveiling Crypto Market Insights: Bitcoin CyclesGreetings, fellow crypto enthusiasts! We are thrilled to initiate a series of posts dedicated to educational market content, with a central focus on crypto markets. To kickstart this series, we will delve into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin and introduce the key terms pivotal to our upcoming detailed reports. In this analysis of Bitcoin cycles, the cycle's start is identified as the lowest point following the peak of the preceding cycle within a multi-year timeframe. Historically, the duration between low points in Bitcoin cycles has been around 4 years. This encompasses a 3-year bullish phase (approximately 150 weeks) represented by the green chart area, followed by a 1-year bearish phase (about 50 weeks) depicted in red. The cyclical nature of Bitcoin is influenced by various factors, including the Bitcoin halving. This event reduces the block reward, thereby diminishing new supply, by 50% approximately every 4 years. The upcoming Bitcoin halving is anticipated in April/May 2024. We are currently trading in week 40 of the current bull phase of the cycle, which lasted ca. 150 weeks in previous two cycles we presented on the charts. Bitcoin is approximately 35 weeks away from the halving. What are your price expectations as we approach this event? In which week of the cycle do you expect current cycle top to occur? Let us know in the comments.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Bitstamp
32
Tesla $TSLA vs Lithium PricesTesla NASDAQ:TSLA vs Lithium Prices Tesla was faced with crushing increases in the price of lithium which created a feedback-loop spiral to the downside for investor and speculator expectations. There were many other factors going on at the same time for Tesla's big slide from $400+ down to $100+ per share, but this picture paints a picture and story which is easy to remember. One of the biggest costs of producing battery-electric-vehicles (BEV's) is the cost of lithium. This massive run-up in the price of lithium may have exposed Tesla to the uncertain pricing of lithium supplies and may also have encouraged Tesla to begin their own lithium extracting and processing operations. Clearly, this was a problem and it fed into investor expectations and drove the stock lower and lower until finally the fever broke and lithium prices have crashed. Keep an eye on Lithium prices here at TradingView and set alerts for a heads-up on sharp increases or decreases in the price to have a heads-up on what is happening under the surface. Tim 10:02AM 8/22/2023 EDT
COMEX:LTH1!
by timwest
9
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook; destination Jackson Hole The big market themes last week were trading increased China risk and a resilient US economy with higher US ‘real’ yields (TradingView - TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE ) – the result was broad USD strength and global equity weakness. GBP longs also saw tailwinds from the UK data flow, with GBPNOK the best performing major currency pair on the week – Services PMI could test GBP longs this week, although pullbacks should be shallow. US equity and index options expiry may have played a part in the equity drawdown, with dealer’s net short gamma and delta hedging through shorting S&P500 futures and single stock names. Let’s see how options dealers/market makers deal with this inventory of short positioning/hedges this week, as it may be unwanted - suggesting risk that they buy-back short S&P500 futures hedges (to close), which could cause an early relief rally in equity. Positioning will play a huge part this week and it wouldn’t take much to see US real rates a touch lower, with the USD following in its wake. As the new trading week cranks up, news flow on China will drive and should the HK50 and CNH find further selling interest, then I’d be aligned, with a bias to look at short GER40 trades. The China property sector remains the elephant in the room, with the market finding little tangible fiscal support to reprice risk higher – the price action in the HK50 reflects that, with rallies quickly sold into. It’s time for Chinese authorities to step it up. We get PMI data out throughout the week, but as the week rolls on the attention should turn to Jackson Hole, where Jay Powell takes centre stage. While this forum has been the setting for some bold changes to monetary policy in years gone by, it doesn’t feel like this time around we’ll be treated to such action. The USD remains front and centre this week – biased long, I acknowledge positioning is rich and could easily be vulnerable to profit taking into Powell’s speech. The marquee data to navigate: • China loan prime rate decision (21 Aug 11:15 AEST) – after the PBoC surprised the market and eased the Medium-Lending Facility last week, we should see the PBoC ease the 1- and 5-year Prime lending rate by 15bp respectively. Unless we see the Prime Rate left unchanged, Chinese equity markets will likely overlook any policy easing here and funds should continue to shy away from HK50, CHINAH, and CN50 longs. USDCNH finds support below 7.3000, but few are buying yuan with conviction other than to cover yuan shorts. • Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 1800 AEST) – the market eyes the manufacturing index at 42.6 (from 42.7) and services at 50.5 (50.9). A weaker services PMI, especially if the data prints below 50 (the expansion/contraction line) and we could see better EUR sellers, with the GER40 eyeing a break of the July lows of 15,500. Tactically warming to EURCAD shorts. • UK manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 18:30 AEST) – the market looks for manufacturing to come in at 45 (45.3) and services at 50.8 (51.5). GBP – the best performing major currency last week - could be sensitive to the services print. • US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 2345 AEST) – with much focus on China’s markets, US real rates and Jackson Hole, there is less concern about US growth metrics. As a result, the outcome of this may have a limited impact on the USD – it is still a risk to have on the radar. Jackson Hole Symposium – Fed chair Jay Powell will be the highlight of the conference (speaks Sat 00:05 AEST) – again, it’s still premature for Powell to declare victory in the Fed’s inflation fight and will likely emphasise there is still more work to be done. He may also spend time exploring a higher for longer mantra (for interest rates), with a focus on where they are modelling the neutral fed funds rate; possibly one for the PhDs and academics. Powell should re-affirm his view that rate cuts are not in their immediate thinking. From a risk management perspective, I am sensing Jackson Hole/Powell’s speech to be tilted on the hawkish side, and therefore modestly USD positive. Although given the bull run in the USD one could argue a hawkish Powell is largely priced. Other Jackson Hole speakers: • Fed members Goolsbee and Bowman (23 Aug 05:30 AEST) • Fed member Harker (25 Aug 23:00 AEST) • ECB president Lagarde (26 Aug 05:00 AEST) BRICS Summit in South Africa (Tuesday and Wednesday) – It’s hard to see this as market moving and a risk event for broad markets. However, with BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) accounting for 32% of global GDP and some 23 countries wanting to join the union, there will be increased focus on their expansion plans. Some have linked the BRICS to an acceleration of global de-dollarization, and while a global reliance on the USD will likely fall over time, the movement is glacial. A common currency for this union – while possibly getting headlines at this summit - is not something that seems viable anytime soon. Key corporate earnings: US - Nvidia report earnings (aftermarket) – many will recall the 24% rally in the share price in Q1 earnings (in May) and hope for something similar. Given the incredible run and heavy positioning, it may need something truly inspiring to blow the lights out. The market prices an implied move on earnings is 10.2%, so one for those who like a bit of movement in their trading. Australia – 68 ASX200 co’s report, including – BHP, Woodside Petroleum, Qantas, Northern Star and Wesfarmers
TVC:US10Y
by Pepperstone
15
BTC Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaBitcoin has reached a crucial support level after a decline in bullish momentum. The price has become significantly overextended, leading to the question of whether we can expect more downward movement or a substantial retracement. In the video, we delve into the trend, price action, market structure, imbalances, and other essential aspects of technical analysis. As always, the video provides a detailed explanation of everything discussed, and it's important to note that this content should not be interpreted as financial advice.
OANDA:BTCUSD
by fxtraderanthony
45
Is Ethereum about to correct to 700 dollars?There is growing evidence for it. On the above 10-day log growth chart price action has been riding the ‘mean’ log growth line for a little over 1 year now. Throughout this whole time price action trades within an ascending channel, a bear flag. Within this bearish channel a smaller bear flag is printing. A measured move on the smaller bear-flag confirmation would see a 40% correction in price action. A measured move on the larger bear-flag confirmation would see a 60% correction in price action, <700 dollars. This is a fascinating level for two reasons: 1) It would be a correction to the golden ratio as was with the 2019 correction. 2) It would be a correction to the lower log growth curve, which is expected before the next bull run FOR Ethereum. Lastly there is the Ethereum/Bitcoin chart. Two significant events: 1) The GRM (Golden Ratio Multiplier) has now failed as support (green line), a bull market requires support. 2) Price action has exited a large bear-flag. Is it possible price action keeps rising? Sure. A convincing break of 2300-2400 would void this outlook. Is it probable price action keeps rising? No. For the bulls, price action must break above 2300-2400 and hold it for a 2-3 weeks. For the bears, a correction to 1750 and under is a green light. It is not all bad news. Would you like to Time-warp back to January 2016 and buy Ethereum for $2? It is possible and no one is talking about it. Will say elsewhere. Ww Weekly ETH/BTC pair. 2-week ETH/BTC large bear flag confirmation
INDEX:ETHUSD
by without_worries
387
Paypal could flash a 10% earnings yield this yearPaypal is expected to earn 4.95 eps this year 2023 and yet the stock is lagging the sp500. If risk avoidance returns in the sp500, it is possible that paypal underperforms further if the paypal downtrend continues. However, wouldnt that be a value buying opportunity? if paypal reaches the 50 level and paypal continues to grow its earnings power (as analysts expect), the earnings yield on paypal would be around 10% earnings yield. Value investors would be happy to consider a stock earnings 10% which at the moment is almost twice the treasury rates and twice the AAA corporate bond yields. Growth investors might also find paypal meeting PEG ratio buy parameters, since analysts expect 15-18% growth annually. If paypal weakens further, a 50 handle would be tempting. Analysts still show a 21 $ eps for for 2032 which could warrant a valuation for future 2032 between 400-600 per share in good times, 9-10 years from now.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by ValuePig
26
Gold Price on Cusp of Testing June LowThe price of gold appears to be on track to test the June low ($1893) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week. Gold Price Outlook The price of gold seems to be tracking the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($1941) as it registers a fresh monthly low ($1903), and failure to defend the June low ($1893) may push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards oversold territory as it slips to its lowest level since June. A break/close below the $1886 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to $1896 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) region may push the price of gold towards $1843 (50% Fibonacci retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around the March low ($1809). Nevertheless, the price of gold may attempt to retrace the decline from the start of the month if it holds above the June low ($1893), with a move above $1937 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) raising the scope for a move towards the monthly high ($1966).
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
6
Micheal J Burry is not Alone!Who is Micheal J Burry and Why everyone talks about him Today? Today on most social media pages everyone talks about this news: Michael Burry just shorted the market with $1.6B Bought $890M of AMEX:SPY Puts Bought $740M of NASDAQ:QQQ Puts This now makes up 93% of his entire portfolio To me, Michael J Burry is a True Living Legend! Michael J. Burry is an American investor, hedge fund manager, and physician. He is best known for being among the first investors to predict and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis that occurred between 2007 and 2010. In 2000, Burry founded the hedge fund Scion Capital. Scion Capital was a very successful hedge fund, and Burry made a lot of money for his investors. However, Scion Capital closed in 2008 after the subprime mortgage crisis. Michael Burry made a personal profit of $100 million and more than $700 million for his investors during the subprime mortgage crisis. This represents a profit of over 489% for Scion Capital, Burry's hedge fund, between its inception in 2000 and its closure in 2008. Burry's profit was the result of his bet against the subprime mortgage market. He believed that the market was overvalued and that the housing bubble would eventually burst. He shorted mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are investments that are backed by pools of mortgages. When the housing bubble burst in 2007, the value of MBS plummeted and Burry's bet paid off handsomely. Burry's bet against the subprime mortgage market was a very risky one. Many investors thought he was crazy, and he was even sued by some of his own investors. However, Burry's bet turned out to be correct, and he made a lot of money for himself and his investors. Burry's story is a reminder that it is possible to make a lot of money in the stock market by being a contrarian. He was willing to go against the crowd and bet against the subprime mortgage market, even though most investors thought he was wrong. His bet paid off, and he made a lot of money. From a Statistical point of view, there are lots of similarities between now and November 2021, Here are some other famous hedge funds that made money from the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007: John Paulson's Paulson & Co. made a profit of $20 billion during the crisis. Paulson was one of the first investors to bet against the subprime mortgage market, and he made a lot of money when the housing bubble burst. David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital made a profit of $2 billion during the crisis. Einhorn was also a contrarian investor, and he bet against the subprime mortgage market. Seth Klarman's Baupost Group made a profit of $1 billion during the crisis. Klarman is a value investor, and he saw the subprime mortgage market as being overvalued. George Soros is another famous hedge fund manager who made money from the subprime mortgage crisis. Soros's Quantum Fund made a profit of $1.7 billion during the crisis. Soros was one of the first investors to warn about the dangers of the subprime mortgage market, and he bet against the market. The NAAIM Exposure Index is a measure of the average exposure to US equity markets reported by members of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM). The index is released weekly on Thursdays. Each week, NAAIM members report their exposure on the stock market using a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 representing 100% cash and 5 representing 100% invested in stocks. The NAAIM Exposure Index is a contrarian indicator. This means that it tends to move in the opposite direction of the stock market. When the stock market is rising, the NAAIM Exposure Index tends to fall, and when the stock market is falling, the NAAIM Exposure Index tends to rise. This is because the NAAIM Exposure Index is based on the sentiment of active investment managers. When active investment managers are bullish on the stock market, they tend to increase their exposure to stocks. This drives up the NAAIM Exposure Index. However, when active investment managers are bearish on the stock market, they tend to reduce their exposure to stocks. This drives down the NAAIM Exposure Index. The NAAIM Exposure Index can be used as a tool to identify potential turning points in the stock market. When the NAAIM Exposure Index is high, it suggests that active investment managers are bullish on the stock market and that a correction may be coming. However, when the NAAIM Exposure Index is low, it suggests that active investment managers are bearish on the stock market and that a rally may be coming. The NAAIM Exposure Index has been on a downward trend for the past 3 years. In August 2020, the index was at 75.93, which is considered to be a neutral level. However, the index has since fallen to 65.49 in August 2023, which is considered to be a bearish level. Conclusion: It is highly likely that Micheal J Burry is not Alone!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Moshkelgosha
44
Are The Bulls Back? ES1! SPY SPXAre the Bulls making a comeback in the S&P? 🐂💪 Get ready for an exclusive analysis! In my latest video, I delve into why the Bears have been dominating the market lately, but there's a glimmer of hope for the Bulls in the S&P. Sadly, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 haven't joined the party just yet. 📈🚀 Let's talk confirmation and the essential indicators I rely on: Beacon Indicator, Bollinger Bands, Auto Anchored VWAP, and a 5 Day Moving Average. Check out the video to discover the key levels I'm closely monitoring in the S&P 500 ES1!, Nasdaq 100 NQ1!, and Russell 2000 RTY1! Futures Markets. Time to trade wisely! 💼💰 #StockMarket #Trading #BullsVsBears
CME_MINI:ES1!
by anthonycrudele
8
Falling Wedge in Microsoft Technology stocks have retreated this month as the AI frenzy cools. Microsoft, in particular, has pulled back. The first pattern on today’s chart is the narrowing range since the slide began in late July. MSFT has made lower highs, but lower lows at a shallower pace. That could have produced a descending triangle, which is potentially bullish. Second, consider the rally between April 25, when results beat estimates, and July 18, when the company announced pricing for its AI services. The current pullback represents about a 50 percent retracement of that move. Third, the software giant has remained above its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) since January. But now prices are returning to the vicinity of this longer-term trend indicator. Finally, stochastics have been in oversold territory for more than a week. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TradeStation
13
Palladium Analysis: Is price starting a swing higher? Today's focus: Palladium Pattern – Descending triangle / Range Support – 1223 Resistance – 1320 • Palladium added 4.37% on Thursday • Palladium and Platinum ignored USD strength to finish firm on Thursday. Hi, and thanks for checking out today’s analysis. We’re looking at Palladium primarily in today’s video, but we have also mentioned Platnuim, as it also posted a solid session on Thursday. After yesterday’s rally, we have looked at a few things that have stood out in the buyer's favour, but we have also broken down the remaining hurdles and what we want to see from price to confirm the bullish signs. Do you trade Palladium? If so, please let us know what you think of the descending triangle pattern and if you agree with current volume supporting yesterday’s move. Have a great day and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XPDUSDLong
by Eightcap
18