Gold looks like it might be heading Higher6 12 25 this is a long video hopefully it does not fail to upload. I mentioned a number of markets in this includes some advice to one of my students ( there is only one student right now) and that's perfectly fine for me.... but I wanted her to see a couple of markets that she might not be looking at but her worth looking at if she wants to trade more markets. I did not include agricultural stuff which could be a good choice, but I just don't spend time with it.
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USDJPY MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
XAUUSD Video Analysis Brief – Weekly Forecast Summary (2025)This video summarizes the key scenarios and technical outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe, integrating both Fibonacci-based projections and macro fundamentals.
Core Setup
Gold is currently positioned near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (~$3,276).
A breakout toward $3,500 is possible before a potential corrective move.
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Gold breaks above $3,435 → rallies to $4300 → continues toward major Fibonacci targets:
TP: $4,320, which is the Fibonacci level 261.8%
Scenario 2: Correction First
Gold fails to hold above $3,435 → triggers a healthy correction to:
TP1: $2,920
TP2: $2,650
If support 161.8% level holds in the correction zone, a renewed bullish phase is expected.
Macro Alignment
Central bank gold buying (notably BRICS) supports the long-term bid.
Fed policy leaning dovish → tailwinds for gold.
Inverse correlation with DXY:
DXY below 98.95 → bullish for gold
DXY above 100 → signals correction
Effect on Altcoins
If correction is risk-on driven, capital may rotate into altcoins.
If triggered by macro stress or USD strength, alts may fall alongside gold.
This analysis offers a multi-scenario framework to navigate the next major moves in gold, with key levels to watch for traders, investors, and macro analysts alike.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-12: BaseRally In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the markets may attempt to identify a base and move higher (rally) off that base level.
Given the overnight price activity, I suggest the process of identifying the base level could prompt a deeper early decline in price - possibly attempting to retest 595-597 lows before finding support and attempting to rally.
As I've been warning over the past few weeks/months, I'm still seeing the Excess Phase Peak pattern playing out as a Flag Termination - rolling into a downtrend and attempting to move back towards the $480 lows as a real possibility. I've been warning and watching for the breakdown in trend - but we've not seen it yet.
Thus, we are still BULLISH until we get a confirmation of a solid breakdown. That would be a move below the 580-585 level at this point. We need to see some type of solid breakdown in price, breaking away from the FLAG setup and moving downward, before I could confidently suggest the Flag Breakdown has happened.
Gold and Silver are making a big move higher. Gold is finally starting to move back above $3400 and I believe watching Silver, Gold, & Platinum rally suggests FEAR is elevating as we move into the end of June.
I still believe Gold has a chance to rally above $4k before the end of June. We'll see if it happens.
BTCUSD is moving into a DUAL-EPP pattern. This is very interesting. Watch the video as I highlight why this could prompt a dual-stage EPP breakdown in Bitcoin over the next 20 to 50+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Premarket update - SPX USOIL GOLD NAT GAS BTCSPX sold off more overnight, but nothing dramatic yet. I do believe we will have a negative day today. Gold looks good for more upside and possibly to all time highs eventually. NAT GAS looks like a short and so does OIL. BTC probably a bit lower to 105k.
GOLD Federal Reserve Interpretation of May CPI Data
Key CPI Figures (May 2025)
Headline CPI:
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%).
Core CPI (ex-food/energy):
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
Cooling Inflation Momentum:
The softer-than-expected MoM and core CPI prints suggest inflation is moderating, particularly in goods categories like gasoline (-2.6% MoM) and autos. Shelter inflation (3.9% YoY) also cooled slightly, a critical factor for the Fed.
Annual CPI (2.4%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target but shows progress from pandemic-era peaks.
Tariff Impact Delayed:
The data reflects limited immediate pass-through from Trump’s April tariffs, which are expected to raise prices by ~1.5% over time. The Fed will remain cautious, as tariff effects could materialize in late 2025, complicating the inflation trajectory.
Labor Market Resilience:
Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing.
Policy Implications:
Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance.
Dovish Tilt for 2025: Markets now price a ~75% chance of a September cut (up from ~55% pre-CPI). The Fed may signal openness to easing if inflation continues trending toward 2% and tariff impacts remain muted.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields to 4.12%, reflecting bets on future rate cuts.
Dollar: The DXY dipped to 98.50 but stabilized as traders weighed Fed caution against global risks.
Equities: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied on reduced stagflation fears.
What’s Next?
June 12 PCE Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will confirm whether disinflation is broadening.
Federal Reserve Interpretation of June 12 Economic Data
Key Data Points
PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%).
Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%).
Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
1. Subdued Producer Inflation
Cooling Input Costs: Both headline and core PPI rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, signaling muted producer-side inflation. This follows prior declines (-0.5% headline, -0.4% core), suggesting persistent disinflationary pressures in supply chains.
Implication: Weak PPI supports the Fed’s view that inflation is moderating, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, the Fed will remain cautious about potential tariff-driven price spikes later in 2025.
2. Labor Market Softening
Rising Jobless Claims: Claims increased for the second straight week (248K vs. 242K forecast), aligning with May’s softer ADP and NFP reports. The 4-week average now sits at 243K, the highest since September 2023.
Implication: A cooling labor market supports arguments for rate cuts to avoid over-tightening, but the Fed will seek confirmation in future reports (e.g., June NFP).
3. Policy Outlook
September Rate Cut Odds: Markets now price a ~70% chance of a September cut (up from ~65% pre-data). The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July but may signal openness to easing if disinflation broadens.
Balancing Risks: While PPI and claims data lean dovish, the Fed remains wary of premature easing given:
Sticky Services Inflation: CPI services ex-energy rose 4.1% YoY in May.
Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation by late 2025.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.09%, reflecting rate-cut bets.
DXY: Dollar index dipped to 98.30, pressured by dovish Fed expectations.
Conclusion
The Fed will view today’s data as reinforcing the case for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation.
July Meeting: Likely a hold, but the Fed’s updated dot plot could hint at 2025 cuts.
Tariff Watch: Delayed price pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard, keeping the Fed data-dependent.
Summary
The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing.
#gold
NS100 IS BULLISHPEPPERSTONE:NAS100 , The journey to NAS100 ATH is all about to kickstart, and it will do us good not to miss this moves. On this post, i shared analysis about NAS100 combining both H4, Daily and WeeklyTF together to form this analysis, for further details, see the content of the post.
$MGC(Gold) EW Recount. Two Possible scenarios!!! - June 11, 2025Hello fellow gamblers,
As you can see in the title, I had to do a recount of my EW analysis for gold since we did fail to break below support towards our Wave C target.
This video is a bit long because i bring 2 different scenarios that could be playing out at this time.
I hope you enjoy!
- Watching for price action behavior near the down trendline and watching for the FVG gap to hold support.
- Levels to watch: 3418.2, 3398, 3360.4, 3324
EURUSD Outlook – Long, Medium & Short-Term Analysis🔹 Weekly Chart:
The broader structure remains technically bearish. We've recently seen a trend reset, which could mark the beginning of a fresh downside leg.
🔹 Daily Chart:
A clear bearish trend reversal pattern has formed, accompanied by a manipulation phase. A confirmed break structure is now in place. As long as price remains below 1.15734, short positions remain valid.
🔹 4H Chart:
Currently in a range-bound phase. A confirmed break below 1.1371 will be a key bearish trigger for potential selling opportunities.
🔹 1H Chart:
Still ranging, but a valid Lower Low (LL) has already printed. A second LL below 1.1371 would confirm a short-term bearish continuation.
On the flip side, a break above 1.1495 would open the door for a bullish move in the short term.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Bullish above: 1.1495
Bearish below: 1.1371
Critical invalidation: 1.15734
Trade safe and stay disciplined.
Dollar - WE HIT OUR FIRST TARGET TODAY!!!Amazing work on the dollar for about a month of analysis and finally hitting our target. Its taken its sweet time to drift lower but we have the bigger move today which clipped our target.
Follow for more updates on dollar and what im looking to trade.
Please like and sub and get notified when videos come out if you like my content.
Go back and look at tall the 2 min clips for the last month. We have been in sync all this time
Brent Oil Intra-day Analysis 12-Jun-25Drawing possible scenarios we could see on Brent Oil prices.
Keep in mind fundamentals supporting the move up on oil:
* Geopilitical escalations between Russia and Ukraine
* Opec+ production policy
* US - China Trade talks and demand optimisim
* Geopolitical tensions between US and Iran.
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GOLD Impact of May CPI Data on Bond Prices/Yields and Fed Rate Decisions
Key CPI Figures
Headline CPI:
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%).
Core CPI (ex-food/energy):
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast).
Bond Market Reaction
Bond Prices surged, and Yields Fell as lower inflation reduced expectations of prolonged high rates:
10-Year Treasury Yield: Dropped 6 basis points (bps) to 4.12% (lowest since March 2025) .
2-Year Treasury Yield: Fell 5 bps to 3.947% .
30-Year Yield: Declined to 4.95% .
Drivers: Softer inflation eased fears of Fed tightening, prompting a bond rally. Traders priced in Fed rate cuts by year-end.
Fed Rate Cut Implications
September Cut Odds Rise: Markets now assign a greater chance of a September rate cut by more than 25bps
July Meeting Likely Unchanged: The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.25–4.50% on June 18 but may signal dovish intent in its updated dot plot.
Policy Dilemma:
Cooling Inflation: Supports cuts to avoid over-tightening.
Resilient Labor Market: May 2025 jobs growth (139K) and steady unemployment (4.2%) suggest the economy can handle delayed easing.
Tariff Risks: Fed remains cautious about potential inflation spikes from Trump’s tariffs, which could materialize in late 2025 .
Market Reactions
Equities: Nasdaq surged past 22,000, and S&P 500 hit a June high as stagflation fears eased .
Dollar Index (DXY): Initially dipped but later stabilized near 98.50 as traders weighed Fed caution against global risk sentiment .
Commodities: Gold rallied to $3,376/oz, while oil rose 2% on demand optimism .
Conclusion
The softer CPI data strengthened the case for Fed rate cuts in 2025, triggering a bond rally and equity gains. While a July cut remains unlikely, the Fed may use its June meeting to prepare markets for a September easing, contingent on inflation staying subdued and tariff impacts materializing as expected ,the CPI (July ) and Q2 GDP will be watched for confirmation.
#GOLD #DOLLAR
Avalanche (AVAX) Price at Key Resistance – Potential Short Setup📉 AVAX/USDT – Possible Bearish Setup Developing 📉
Currently watching Avalanche (AVAX) paired with USDT 🔍, and price action is starting to show signs of bearish momentum creeping in.
We’ve seen a subtle shift to the downside, and I'm anticipating the potential for further weakness into the end of the week 📆🔻.
Here’s what I’m looking for:
🔹 A pullback into resistance — specifically the level highlighted in the video
🔹 A rejection and failure to break above that resistance zone
🔹 A bearish break of market structure following the rejection
If these conditions are met, I’ll be considering a short opportunity aligned with the developing trend 🔄📊.
🎯 As always, patience and precision are key — I’m not acting until price confirms the setup.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own analysis and manage your risk appropriately.
S&P500 Update: Break of Lower TrendlineIn this video, I updated the wave count for S&P500 and discussed 2 different ways of counting it but ended with a bias on a stronger wave 3 down as opposed to a wave 5 of 1 down.
The stop loss is above 6016, with 2 take profit targets:
1) 5940
2) 5923
Good luck!
GOLD GOLD .the current london time of gold trading session is locked at 3376-3374.we hope they unlock the price at 3350-3355 to enable 3427-3430 and higher lock zone
another unlock key at 3367 will be watched if it has the potential for upswing and unlock,otherwise it gets locked into 3350-3355 unlock zone .
from technical perspective unlock of 3323 yesterday will need a cool off at 3350-3355 to unlock another long position.
the dollar index got unlock key at 98.263 descending trendline upholding long position.
the 2hr and 1hr aligns with the structure.(lock /unlock)
lets watch and see what she does.
stay cautious