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USDCADBank of Canada (BoC) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision
The BoC held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% on June 4, 2025, marking the second consecutive hold after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points since mid-2024.
The Bank Rate remains at 3.00%, and the deposit rate at 2.70%.
The decision reflects ongoing uncertainty from U.S. trade policies and tariffs, which continue to pose risks to Canada’s economic growth and inflation outlook.
The BoC emphasized the need to monitor the effects of trade tensions and inflation pressures before making further moves.
The next BoC rate announcement is scheduled for July 30, 2025.
Federal Reserve (Fed) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision
The Fed held its target federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50% in its June 2025 meeting, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance amid mixed inflation and labor market signals.
Recent data showed inflation moderating but still above target, and the labor market softening but resilient, leading the Fed to pause rate changes while assessing incoming economic information.
Market pricing indicates a growing probability of a rate cut later in 2025, possibly starting in September, contingent on sustained disinflation and labor market trends.
The Fed continues to monitor risks from tariffs and global economic uncertainties.
JUNE 18th economic data will be watched by BOC Gov Macklem Speaks and BOC Summary of Deliberations
Federal Reserve will update Federal Funds Rate 4.50% 4.50%,FOMC Economic Projections,FOMC Statement and FOMC Press Conference
In summary: Both the BoC and Fed paused rate changes in June 2025, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties—trade tensions for Canada and inflation/labor market data for the US. Markets expect potential easing later in the year if conditions deteriorate
1. USD/CAD and Oil Price Correlation
Strong Negative Correlation:
USD/CAD and oil prices exhibit a strong inverse correlation. When oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar (CAD) tends to appreciate against the US dollar (USD), causing USD/CAD to fall, and vice versa.
Reason: Canada is a major oil exporter (over 3 million barrels/day), so oil revenues significantly impact Canada’s trade balance and economic health. Higher oil prices improve Canada’s terms of trade and strengthen CAD.
Recent Trends:
Although this correlation remains strong, its intensity has somewhat weakened recently due to other factors like global risk sentiment and trade dynamics. Still, oil remains a key driver of CAD strength.
2. USD/CAD and 10-Year Bond Yields
Interest Rate Differentials Influence:
The difference between US and Canadian 10-year government bond yields affects USD/CAD. A higher US yield relative to Canada tends to strengthen USD versus CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher. Conversely, if Canadian yields rise relative to US yields, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD.
Risk Sentiment and Yield Movements:
Bond yields reflect economic growth expectations and monetary policy outlooks. Diverging economic conditions or central bank actions between the US and Canada influence these yields and thus USD/CAD.
Example: If US yields rise due to Fed tightening while Canadian yields stay stable, USD/CAD may rise.
3. Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions
Monetary Policy Impact:
The Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decisions are crucial drivers of USD/CAD.
Rate Hikes: If the Fed raises rates or signals hawkishness while BoC holds or cuts, USD tends to strengthen against CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher.
Rate Cuts: Conversely, if BoC hikes or signals hawkishness and Fed eases, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD.
Policy Divergence: Market expectations around these decisions create volatility in USD/CAD.
4. Carry Trade Advantage
Carry Trade Basics:
Carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher rates to earn the interest differential.
USD/CAD Context:
If Canadian interest rates are higher than US rates, investors may borrow USD to invest in CAD assets, supporting CAD and lowering USD/CAD.
Interest Rate Differentials: The attractiveness of carry trades depends on the interest rate spread between the two countries and market risk appetite.
Risk Considerations: Carry trades can unwind quickly during market stress, causing sharp USD/CAD moves.
5. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
UIP Theory:
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is an economic and financial theory that explains the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates between two countries.
Key Points of UIP:
Definition: UIP states that the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries equals the expected change in exchange rates between their currencies over the same period. In other words, if one country has a higher interest rate, its currency is expected to depreciate relative to the currency of the country with the lower interest rate.
Implication: This means investors should expect no arbitrage opportunities from interest rate differentials alone because any potential gains from higher interest rates in one country will be offset by losses from currency depreciation.
Example:
Suppose the US has a 6% interest rate and India has a 14% interest rate. According to UIP, the Indian rupee is expected to depreciate against the US dollar by approximately 8% (the difference in interest rates) over the investment period. So, although an investor might earn higher interest in India, the currency depreciation offsets the gain.
Relation to Law of One Price: UIP is similar to the "Law of One Price," which states that identical goods or securities should have the same price globally when adjusted for exchange rates.
Difference from Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP):
UIP does not involve hedging exchange rate risk with forward contracts; it uses expected future spot rates.
CIP involves using forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, eliminating currency risk.
Formula:
The expected change in exchange rate ≈ difference in interest rates between two countries.
USD/CAD Implication:
Traders watch interest rate differentials and expectations to forecast USD/CAD moves, but must consider that other factors (oil prices, risk sentiment) also influence the pair.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on USD/CAD Explanation
Oil Prices Higher oil → CAD strengthens → USD/CAD ↓ Canada’s oil exports support CAD
10-Year Bond Yield Differential Higher US yields → USD strengthens → USD/CAD ↑ Reflects monetary policy and growth outlooks
Central Bank Rate Decisions Fed hike > BoC hike → USD/CAD ↑ Interest rate differentials drive flows
Carry Trade Higher CAD rates → carry trade inflows → USD/CAD ↓ Investors seek higher yields in CAD
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Interest rate gap ≈ expected exchange rate change Theoretical equilibrium, often imperfect
Conclusion
The USD/CAD pair is heavily influenced by oil prices, with a strong negative correlation due to Canada’s oil export dependence.
Interest rate differentials and central bank policies between the US and Canada also play a critical role, affecting bond yields and carry trade flows.
While carry trade strategies can amplify movements, they carry risk during market volatility.
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity provides a theoretical framework for exchange rate expectations but is often influenced by other market factors, including commodity prices and risk sentiment.
#USDCAD
USOIL The current conflict between Iran and Israel has caused a sharp spike in oil prices due to fears of supply disruptions in a geopolitically sensitive region that is critical for global energy flows.
Key Effects on Oil Prices:
Price Surge:
Oil prices jumped over 7% on June 13, 2025, reaching multi-month highs. Brent crude rose to $76.190 close 73.535 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to around $77.542 before closing at 72.91 per barrel on Friday
Earlier intraday spikes were even higher, with Brent briefly surging over 13% and WTI over 14%, marking the largest single-day gains since March 2022.
Risk Premium and Supply Concerns:
The Israeli strike on Iran significantly raised the "risk premium" on oil prices as markets worry about potential retaliation by Iran targeting oil infrastructure or blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for about 20% of the world’s oil.
Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels per day (3% of global supply) and exports 1.5 million barrels daily, mainly to China and Turkey. Disruptions here could tighten global supply considerably.
Potential for Further Price Increases:
Analysts warn that if the conflict escalates, oil prices could surge beyond current levels, potentially topping $93 to $100 per barrel if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz or attacks Gulf energy installations.
Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude could peak slightly above $90 per barrel before falling back as supply stabilizes.
Broader Market Impact:
The conflict has also caused stock market declines and a flight to safe-haven assets like gold, which rose sharply alongside the oil price spike.
U.S. gasoline prices are expected to rise in the coming days due to higher crude costs, potentially increasing fuel prices significantly if the conflict worsens.
Summary
The Iran-Israel conflict has already caused a major jump in oil prices due to fears of supply disruptions in a key oil-producing region. The risk of Iran retaliating by targeting oil infrastructure or blocking the Strait of Hormuz could lead to sustained higher prices, with some analysts warning of a possible spike to $93–$100 per barrel if tensions escalate further. This situation is closely monitored by markets given its potential to impact global energy supplies and inflation worldwide
#USOIL #OIL
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The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
What is UoM consumer sentiment? The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI), often referred to as UoM Consumer Sentiment, is a widely followed monthly survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic American consumers feel about the overall economy and their financial situation.
Key Details:
Purpose: It measures consumer attitudes toward current and future economic conditions, including personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing intentions. Since consumer spending accounts for about 68% of the U.S. economy, the index is a valuable leading indicator of economic activity.
Methodology: The University of Michigan conducts telephone and web surveys of a representative sample of U.S. households (around 500–1000 respondents), asking about their financial health, short-term and long-term economic outlook, and expectations for inflation and interest rates.
Components:
Current Conditions Index — consumers’ assessment of the present economic situation.
Consumer Expectations Index — consumers’ outlook for the economy over the next 6–12 months.
Release Schedule: Preliminary data is released mid-month, with a final report at month-end.
Significance:
Reflects consumer confidence and spending intentions.
Helps forecast economic growth and inflation trends.
Influences financial markets and policy decisions.
Summary
The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is a key measure of how confident consumers feel about the economy, which in turn signals their likely spending behavior and economic outlook. Higher sentiment typically suggests stronger consumer spending and economic growth, while lower sentiment indicates caution and potential economic slowdown.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing the urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 96.891 weekly floor will be watched.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on the improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes.
(2)The Federal Reserve will interpret —Core PPI m/m: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.2%), PPI m/m: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.2%), and Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 248K)—as further evidence of a cooling but not collapsing labor market and subdued inflation pressures.
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
1. Producer Price Index (PPI)
what is PPI? PPI stands for Producer Price Index. It is an economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Essentially, it tracks inflation at the wholesale or producer level, reflecting how prices for goods and services change before they reach consumers.
Key points about PPI:
Published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Measures price changes from the perspective of producers/sellers, unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices from the consumer’s viewpoint.
Includes thousands of indexes across industries and product categories, covering goods and some services.
Used to forecast inflation trends and as a tool for contract escalations and economic analysis.
Often considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation since producer prices tend to influence retail prices over time.
In summary, the PPI helps gauge inflation pressures early in the production process before they
Inflation Remains Subdued: Both headline and core PPI came in below expectations, confirming that producer-side inflation pressures remain mild. This follows a period of outright declines, indicating no broad-based resurgence in input costs.
Tariff Pass-Through Still Limited: While the Fed is alert to potential tariff-driven inflation later in 2025, current PPI data shows businesses are not yet passing higher costs on to consumers in a meaningful way.
2. Unemployment Claims
Labor Market Softening: Initial jobless claims held at 248K, above expectations and at an eight-month high. The four-week moving average also rose, and continuing claims increased to 1.956 million, marking the third consecutive weekly rise. This signals a gradual loosening of the labor market, with more people remaining unemployed for longer periods.
No Immediate Crisis, But Trend Is Clear: The persistently high claims numbers are moving beyond seasonal noise and indicate a structural shift toward weaker hiring.
3. Policy Implications
Supports Dovish Shift: The combination of softer producer inflation and a weakening labor market strengthens the case for the Fed to consider rate cuts later in 2025.
No Immediate Rate Cut: The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its June meeting, but this data increases the likelihood of a cut by September, especially if upcoming CPI and labor data confirm these trends.
Cautious Messaging: The Fed will remain cautious due to the risk of tariff-related inflation later in the year, but current data gives them more flexibility to pivot if growth and employment weaken further.
Conclusion
The Fed will see this data as validating a cautious, data-dependent approach: inflation is contained, and the labor market is softening. While no immediate rate cut is expected, the probability of a cut by September has increased, especially if disinflation and labor market weakness persist.
(3)The Federal Reserve will likely interpret the May 2025 CPI data as signs of moderating inflation but with persistent underlying pressures, leading to a cautious but patient policy stance:
What is cpi??? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. It reflects inflation as experienced by consumers in their day-to-day living expenses.
Key Points about CPI:
What it Measures: The CPI tracks price changes for a broad range of items including food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services.
Data Collection: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects about 80,000 price quotes monthly from retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors' offices.
Purpose: It is widely used to monitor inflation, adjust income payments like Social Security, and guide monetary policy decisions by central banks.
Calculation: CPI is a weighted average of prices, reflecting consumer spending patterns, and is updated periodically to account for changes in consumption habits.
Inflation Indicator: The annual percentage change in CPI is a common measure of inflation, indicating how much prices have increased or decreased over a year.
Summary
CPI provides a snapshot of how much prices for everyday goods and services are rising or falling, helping policymakers, businesses, and consumers understand inflation trends and make informed decisions.
The headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, less than the 0.2% expected and down from April’s 0.2% increase, indicating a slowdown in price growth.
The year-over-year CPI increased 2.4%, slightly above April’s 2.3%, but still close to the Fed’s 2% target, showing inflation is near but not fully anchored.
The core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% MoM, below the 0.3% forecast and April’s 0.2%, suggesting easing price pressures in most sectors except shelter and some services.
Shelter costs rose 0.3% in May and remain a key driver of inflation, while energy prices declined 1.0%, helping to temper headline inflation.
The Fed will note that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not yet significantly pushed up consumer prices, but remain a risk factor that could elevate inflation later in 2025.
Labor market data remain resilient, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and moderate job growth, supporting economic strength but complicating the Fed’s inflation fight.
Policy Implications:
The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in its upcoming June meeting, maintaining a "wait-and-see" approach to assess how tariffs and inflation evolve.
Markets have limited expectations of a rate cut this month but the price in a ~75% chance of a cut by September, contingent on further inflation easing and labor market developments.
The Fed will remain cautious about premature easing given inflation’s stickiness in services and potential tariff pass-through, but the data support a gradual path toward rate cuts later in 2025 if disinflation continues.
In summary: The Fed will see May’s CPI data as encouraging but not definitive evidence of inflation control, justifying a cautious hold on rates in June while preparing markets for possible easing later this year if inflation and labor data continue to improve.
(4)The Federal Reserve will interpret the May 2025 labor market data—Non-Farm Employment Change of 139K (above the 126K forecast), Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2%, and Average Hourly Earnings up 0.4% MoM (above the 0.3% forecast)—as evidence of a resilient but slowing labor market, which supports a cautious approach to monetary policy.
Detailed Interpretation:
Employment Growth Slightly Above Expectations
The addition of 139,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, indicates that job creation continues.
Growth is uneven across sectors, with healthcare and leisure showing strength while government and trade-related sectors have seen declines, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and policy uncertainties.
Unchanged Unemployment Rate at 4.2%
The stable unemployment rate suggests that the labor market remains relatively tight, consistent with "maximum employment" goals.
However, underlying data show some signs of weakening, such as rising initial jobless claims in late May, which the Fed will monitor closely.
Wage Growth Accelerates Slightly
Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% MoM, above expectations, signaling persistent wage pressures that can feed into inflation.
Year-over-year wage growth ticked up to 3.9%, reinforcing concerns about labor cost-driven inflation.
Overall Fed View
The Fed sees the labor market as a relative bright spot amid broader economic uncertainties, including trade tensions and slowing GDP growth.
The data suggest the economy is slowing but not collapsing, allowing the Fed to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance.
Given persistent wage growth and resilient employment, the Fed is likely to hold interest rates steady at the upcoming meetings but remains open to cuts later in 2025 if labor market softness intensifies and inflation continues to moderate.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely interpret this labor market report as supporting a steady policy stance in the near term, balancing ongoing inflation concerns from wage growth against signs of slowing employment gains. Rate cuts remain on the table for later in 2025, contingent on further labor market weakening and sustained inflation declines..
Summary of the three economic data leads the rate hold for now, but cut likely any time soon on the data approach.
#gold #dollar
A cool off dayA cool off day is expected in the S&P 500 daily chart for Monday, June 16. This would be reflected as a day that would trade inside the range of Friday's daily chart. It will take new information to create volatility and directional up or down movement beyond the midpoint of Friday's daily chart.
Expiration Dates for Options using Fibonacci Time ZoneThis is a way I use the Fibonacci Time Zone; it naturally leans into a balance of Gamma and Theta Decay. Choosing the right strike zone is up to your strategy. I prefer Covered Calls, Debit Spreads and Iron Condors for this strategy. Puts are fair game too. If you choose to roll something over, most recoveries occur after a month and a half after a 10% SPY drop off.
Favorite Fibonacci ChannelI posted about the Fibonacci Channel I regularly use to set my stop loss, mean reversal TP, and breakout TP. It's typically 0.5 for a mean reversion, and the breakout is typically confirmed with a strong move past the 1.27 or -0.27 threshold, with 1.88 as the expected move and Euler's e and Pi as the followed profit targets. The vice versa is true for negative Tp below the zero line. I trade it as low as the 1-minute time frame to as high as weekly, as it works very well, especially when it's preparing a squeeze.
Futures RSII will go through why I prefer the 63 RSI to be OHLC4 or HLC3. That's because I think Volume Weighted MA is influenced by the high, low, and close price, so I use either that or OHLC4 after double smoothing it. Watch the 70-30 and oversold levels as a potential reversal play; typically, everything above 35 is bullish and everything below 65 is bearish, with 50 as TP. The most powerful aspect of the RSI lies in finding divergences from the strength of the RSI and the direction of price; that's where the largest trades I have taken were made.
Israel VS Iran War: Oil Spike!Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated dramatically, with both nations engaging in direct military strikes. Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile factories, and military personnel. In response, Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel, hitting Tel Aviv and wounding civilians
The conflict stems from long-standing hostilities, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel views as an existential threat. The situation has drawn international attention, with the United States distancing itself from Israel’s actions while maintaining strategic interests in the region.
The escalation has raised concerns about a wider regional war, with analysts warning of unintended consequences and further retaliation. The global markets have also reacted, with oil prices surging amid uncertainty.
BITCOINThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends.
#bitcoin #dollar
EURUSD, GBPUSD - Outlook for next weekEURUSD - So we have 2x 4 hour POI's (Points Of Interest). Will be looking at potential reversals at both POI's however, within the first POI we have an area of potential liquidity that could look to be taken before we make out move back to the upside.
Therefor, the second POI could look to be our more solid option for our buying options at some point next week.
GBPUSD - This pair looks to be building its liquidity now for potential trades to the upside as today on the lower TF's it was setting quite a few traps for the potential longs and the traders that would have been shorting the breaks below structure to the left.
If you have any questions for me please do let me know
06/13/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysisEOD accountability report: +3825
Sleep: 5.5 hours (sleep is declining, will spend the weekend catching up)
Overall health: Good
What was my initial plan? I wanted to short 6016-6020 area in the morning but we didn't open up to that, so i just sat on sideline until we hit the 6025 , took a big short there and paid off really well.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System from (9:30am to 2pm)
— 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 10:40 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Buy Signal
— 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 12:21 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double signal)
— 1:12 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Sell Signal
— 1:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Above 6010 = Bullish, Under 5965= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
EURUSD – Follow-Up UpdateEURUSD traded above the 1.1573 level on Thursday, marking a second break to the upside following the earlier trend-changing pattern — a potential sign of bullish continuation.
However, on the 1H/M15 chart, we've observed a minor ABC corrective decline (pullback). We’re now watching for a break below 1.1511, which could signal the start of a short-term bearish move.
🎯 Short-Term Target:
The next key level is 1.1214, a weekly structural support zone and the low of the previous trend-changing pattern.
📌 Key Zones to Watch:
Bearish confirmation: Break below 1.1511
Medium-term target: 1.1214
Stay alert to price action around these levels.
Trade safe, and have a blessed weekend.