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GOLD GOLD opens on liquidity demand floor on 15min chart and took 3295-3300 demand floor for uptick as early discussed on other gold chart. 3358-3365 hold a strong supply roof and a double top structure broken neckline will hold buyers @ 3358-3365 .if that layer is respected ,your buy profit will be taken. but if is broken you go long on retest of 3358-3365. Gold, 10-Year Bond Yield, DXY, and Interest Rate Differential 1.Gold is trading around $3,324 after dipping into 3300-3295 per ounce on Asian session The price remains elevated compared to historical levels, supported by inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and strong central bank demand. 2. Relationship with 10-Year Bond Yield The US 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.5%, recently rising amid inflation worries and fiscal uncertainties.the boost from NFP took 10 year yield from 4.3% to 4.58% close of Friday . Gold has an inverse relationship with real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations). Rising nominal yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, generally pressuring gold prices lower. However, if inflation expectations remain elevated, gold can still hold value as an inflation hedge despite rising nominal yields. 3. Relationship with DXY (US Dollar Index) Gold and the DXY share a strong negative correlation because gold is priced in USD. When the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and pushing prices down. Recent dollar strength on demand floor has weighed on gold, but persistent inflation, geopolitical tension ,political instability and safe-haven demand have limited gold’s downside. 4. Interest Rate Differential Impact The interest rate differential between the US and other major economies affects capital flows and currency valuations, indirectly influencing gold. Higher US rates relative to other countries tend to strengthen the dollar, pressuring gold. Conversely, narrowing differentials or expectations of Fed rate cuts can weaken the dollar and support gold prices. Gold prices remain in a higher trading range ($3,000–$3,500) supported by inflation fears, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying. Near-term pressure may come from rising bond yields and a strong dollar. Critical looks on over bought market would need a correction to set up a new buy rally. The upcoming U.S. inflation data release on June 11, 2025 and Fed policy signals will be crucial in determining gold’s direction. Core CPI m/m forecast: 0.3% (previous 0.2%) CPI m/m forecast: 0.2% (previous 0.2%) CPI y/y forecast: 2.5% (previous 2.3%) How the Federal Reserve is likely to react if actual figures exceed forecasts: (1)Monetary Policy Stance The Fed’s May 2025 minutes emphasize a data-dependent approach, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% while carefully assessing incoming data and risks to inflation and employment. If inflation prints come in higher than expected, especially core CPI and y/y CPI, it would signal persistent inflation pressures, potentially delaying or reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. (2)Possible Fed Response The Fed may adopt a more cautious or hawkish tone in its June 17–18 meeting, signaling readiness to keep rates elevated longer or even consider further tightening if inflation remains sticky. Policymakers could emphasize the need for “greater confidence” that inflation is on a sustainable downward path before easing monetary policy. Market expectations for rate cuts later in 2025 could be pushed back or diminished, supporting higher bond yields and a stronger dollar. (3)Market Implications A stronger-than-forecast CPI print would likely boost the US dollar (DXY) as markets price in a prolonged high-rate environment. Treasury yields, especially the 10-year yield, may rise reflecting increased inflation risk and delayed easing. Conversely, gold and other inflation-sensitive assets may face selling pressure due to higher real yields and dollar strength. Conclusion Gold’s price dynamics in June 2025 are shaped by a tug-of-war between rising US 10 year Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar, which weigh on gold, and inflation concerns plus safe-haven demand, which support it. The interest rate differential reinforces dollar strength, typically bearish for gold, but ongoing macro uncertainties keep gold elevated as a strategic asset and store of value. #gold #dollar
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
USD/JPY Short, AUD/NZD Short, AUD/JPY Neutral and EUR/USD ShortUSD/JPY Short Minimum entry requirements: - If tight non-structured 5 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 5 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it. - If tight non-structured 15 min continuation forms, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 15 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. AUD/NZD Short Minimum entry requirements: - If tight non-structured 15 min continuation forms, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 15 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. AUD/JPY Neutral Minimum entry requirements: - If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it. Minimum entry requirements: - 1H impulse down below area of value. - If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it. - If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. EUR/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: - Tap into area of value. - 1H impulse down below area of value. - If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. - If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
by StewySongs
2
Monday Market Outlook Get ahead of the markets with this week’s essential macro insights! In this session, we break down the most impactful upcoming events affecting DXY, XAUUSD, and BTCUSD — including the FedWatch Tool outlook, yield curve shifts, and how to interpret changing rate expectations. If you want to understand how the macro backdrop could influence your trades, this video is a must-watch. 👉 Learn how to spot opportunities before the move happens. 📉 Rate cut? 📈 Rate hike? 📊 We’ll show you what the market is really pricing in.
TVC:DXY
by DeanMuller
GBPJPY eyes breakout with 450 pip potentialGBPJPY is testing key resistance at 196.43 in an ascending triangle. A breakout could trigger a 450+ pip move. EURJPY and Dow Jones show similar setups, adding confluence. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
Lemonade, Inc. Showing Momentum - Lets Make Lemonade!Hey, everyone. Wanted to get a video out since it has been awhile. Sorry about the rustling in the audio - bear with me as it is not a theme throughout. I am pretty excited about the momentum that NYSE:LMND is showing. I've been in it with a position for a little bit lately, and was fortunate to catch the previous pump with profit, but I think the momentum has a strong chance to continue here. I pretty much cover all my thoughts behind the idea in the video, so feel free to scroll through it at your own rate. I will post it as a chart idea as well so that you can hit the play button and track how the idea is actively performing. Hope you all were able to whether the tariff tantrum and hoping the market can maintain its current positioning, or, better yet, show continued strength. Enjoy, Reagen
NYSE:LMNDLong
by redykhouse
CADJPY: Bullish Momentum vs. Overextension Risk!🚀 CADJPY Analysis 🚀 CADJPY is in a strong bullish trend on the 4H chart, with momentum still pushing higher. However, I’m noticing signs that the pair might be overextended 📈. While there could be a bit more upside, both the weekly and daily timeframes show price pushing into previous highs, which often leads to a retrace back to equilibrium ⚖️. 🔍 Key Levels: I’m watching the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement for a potential pullback, with the 50% level also marked as a key equilibrium zone. I’m not looking to go long at these elevated prices—prefer to wait for a healthy retrace for a more optimal entry 🎯. 💡 Macro Consideration: We also took a look at the NASDAQ 🧑‍💻, since tech stocks can impact the JPY as flows move between risk assets and safe havens. With a lower high forming on the NASDAQ, risk sentiment could shift, impacting CADJPY as well. 🗓️ It’s Monday—let’s trade cautiously and wait for the best setups! Patience pays. Not financial advice.
Long
by fxtraderanthony