ETH/USD Weekly | The Full Breakdown – Structure, Spring, and Set
This is my full Ethereum weekly chart analysis — not just what I think might happen, but a walk-through of everything I’ve mapped and labelled, based on how price has behaved since the 2021 top.
Every structure you see here is there for a reason — from the symmetrical triangle and wedge, to the Wyckoff schematics, Elliott wave flow, Spring, and more. What we’re seeing now, in my opinion, is the end of a three-year macro compression. The move that follows could define the rest of this cycle.
Let me take you through it.
After the all-time high in late 2021, Ethereum entered a structured, controlled decline. Not a crash — but a step-by-step transition through market phases. Price dropped and bottomed into a clear accumulation phase — that’s the first box on this chart, labelled as “Accumulation (cause)”. This is where smart money started taking positions, confirmed by the Spring down to 0 and the base of the move at point 2. From there, price consolidated, gained strength, and then jumped the creek — a clear breakout above the accumulation range, which gave us the confirmation for markup.
The markup phase took us from that Spring up into a five-wave impulsive move, peaking around the distribution zone. You can see it clearly — labelled Distribution, and boxed off between points A, B, C and the final wave 5. This rally failed to make new all-time highs, stalled, and was rejected cleanly. From there, we rolled over and started losing structure — and this is where it gets important.
Right after distribution, we got a breakdown I’ve labelled “Break The Ice”. This wasn’t just another dip. It was the moment we lost all structure from the markup — the line that had held the previous lows snapped, and volume stepped in. This is often the first real signal that we’ve entered the markdown phase. From a Wyckoff perspective, this breakdown is what separates Phase D from the start of a new accumulation cycle. It’s aggressive, deliberate, and clears out late longs — and that’s exactly what it did here.
Following that breakdown, we formed a new falling wedge — drawn from the top of the markdown all the way to the most recent lows. Price was making lower highs and lower lows, but with less aggression and momentum weakening. This wedge sits inside the larger symmetrical triangle, which has been developing ever since the 2021 top. The apex of this triangle, marked around $2,496, is where I believe everything will come to a head. Break that with conviction — and we could start a whole new macro leg.
But before we get there, something happened worth pointing out. That final breakdown inside the wedge? The one that dipped below and quickly reclaimed? That, for me, was the Spring. It’s labelled in yellow as “Spring” under point D. And it matches the Wyckoff schematic almost perfectly. Volume dried up on the move down. RSI and CCI both showed divergence. Then price bounced hard, reclaimed structure, and we’ve held ever since. This doesn’t look like continuation — it looks like a trap.
If that Spring holds, then we’re now in the Sign of Strength (SOS) phase. This is the moment where price reclaims its mid-structure levels, consolidates, and prepares for the breakout. We haven’t broken out yet — but the groundwork is in place.
My Elliott count also lines up. We had a 5-wave impulse from the Spring to the failed rally, followed by an ABC correction. What we may now be seeing is the completion of another Wave 2, setting up for a possible Wave 3 — the strongest wave of the cycle, if confirmed.
Now let’s talk entries. I’ve got my eye on the $2,130–$2,030 region. That’s where I’m placing my DCA bids. It’s the area just above the Spring reclaim zone, where price should react again if we retest. If we lose $1,690, I consider the Spring invalidated and will reassess. That’s my clean risk level.
Break and hold above $2,496, and the breakout is confirmed. That level is not just the wedge and triangle resistance — it’s also the psychological midpoint of this whole macro structure.
Everything’s mapped. Structure is clean. Volume is drying up. Momentum is shifting. And price is compressing right into the apex.
This isn’t a moment to chase. It’s a moment to plan.
If we break out, I’m ready to scale in. If we reject, I’ll be watching the DCA zone and the Spring level closely. Either way, I know what I’m looking for — and I know what invalidates the setup.
Let’s see what price does next.
